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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 13 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 16
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA: FISCAL PRESSURES AND POLITICAL SHIFTS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
EU summit, rate-setting meeting, weak forint
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 May 2022
The situation is quite complicated once again. This afternoon, the EU Council's extraordinary summit meeting started. A key issue for the meeting is supposed to be the oil embargo against Russia. The forint was quite weak again, with EURHUF 395-396, in late trade today, as PM Orbán said earlier t...
Zelensky visits eastern front and admits situation is very difficult
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 May 2022
On May 29 the Ukrainian President went to Ukraine's second city Kharkiv. It is only 40 km from Russia. However, the city is no longer under ground attack. Zelensky dimissed Kharkiv's security chief. The president said the man had not run the defense of the city well in February 2022. On May 29 th...
Neither sanctions relief nor negotiations, for now
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 30 May 2022
The quid pro quo that seemed to be on track a few weeks ago to reactivate negotiations appears to be on hold. License 8j extending until December 1, 2022 the operating restrictions limiting Chevron, Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes and Weatherford International in Venezuela was a non-event...
France and Germany keen to end Ukraine War
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 May 2022
On May 28 the President of France and the Chancellor of Germany had a phone call with Putin. They forwarded proposals to end the war. France and Germany pleaded with Russia to guarantee safe passage to ships transporting food from the Ukrainian Port of Odessa. Ukraine provides at least 10% of the...
GULF WEEKLY: Gulf officials swarm Davos, Saudi prioritizes rebuilding reserves, Oman-Iran gasfield discussed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 May 2022
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Four Saudi ministers, Qatar’s emir and other Gulf officials spoke at Davos. * Saudi Arabia is using the surplus to rebuild reserves, before funding PIF or cutting the VAT rate. * PIF bought a $1.5bn stake in Prince Alwaleed...
Petro’s only chance might be May 29th
COLOMBIA · Report · 27 May 2022
Here we present the proposals of the three leading presidential candidates: Gustavo Petro, Federico Gutiérrez and Rodolfo Hernández, in comparative tables. In the general view of the economy, Gutiérrez seems market and business friendly, whereas Petro would pursue interventionist policies, and He...
Special Brief: Election Timing and Exchange Rate Management
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 May 2022
Introduction We shall not publish a Weekly Tracker this Sunday, on account of Murat Ucer being out of town on business. Instead, I wanted to share my preliminary conclusions on two topics which topped the FAQ list in our recent contacts with our audience. These are election timing and the fate of...
Senators discuss the ICMS issue, Congress will analyze presidential vetoes next week, and federal police officers will march for a salary raise
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 May 2022
Some senators, for example, Senator Eduardo Braga, believe a portion of the dividends that Petrobras pays to the federal government should be used to create a subsidy for truck drivers and taxi drivers. President Jair Bolsonaro criticized a measure included in PLP 18 that mandates the federal gov...
The Two Speeds
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 May 2022
Venezuela’s political conflict is playing out in two different scenarios at two different speeds. Onstage, both the Maduro government and the opposition archipelago are preparing for a long electoral campaign ahead of the 2024 presidential elections. Behind the scenes, pressure is accelerating to...
Kazakhstan: Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 May 2022
May 13 Ministry of Agriculture: Kazakhstan introduces a ban on the export of sugar for six months May 16 Bureau of National Statistics: Kazakhstan’s foreign trade balance reached $9.6 bln in 1Q22 (+$6.3 bln y-o-y) Bureau of National Statistics: Agricultural production reached KZT974.3 bln in Jan-...
Kyrgyzstan cancels USD 3.2 billion fine against Canadian company
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 May 2022
On May 24 a court made the ruling. Centerra Gold was the company that had been fined for breaking environmental law. The company ran Kumtor Gold Mine. The scale of the fine was staggering in a poor country of 5 million people. USD 3 billion would be a large chunk of the country's GDP. Kyrgyzstan ...
Moldova's former pro Russian president arrested
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 May 2022
Igor Dodon is in detention pursuant to a treason and anti-corruption investigation. Moldova said the arrest is unrelated to the Ukraine War. The current Moldovan Government has vowed to battle peculation and oligarchs. The government is seeking the extradition of several Moldovan millionaires abr...
A really big fiscal adjustment, Robin-Hood-type of extraordinary taxes, populist-sounding communication and a much weaker forint
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 May 2022
It took only a few minutes after the release of our monthly report yesterday that PM Orbán announced a series of new extraordinary taxes, imposed on sectors that, according to the judgement of the government of Hungary, make ’extra profits’. These are: banking, insurance, large-scale wholesale/re...
CBR cut the key rate by 300 bps, and Minfin is likely to resume borrowing
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 May 2022
Today, at the extraordinary BoD meeting, CBR decided to cut the key rate by 300 bps to 11%. As we wrote yesterday, this move was anticipated amid rapidly decelerating inflation and slowing consumer lending. Moreover, a further cut in June is also likely. This step will inevitably push down intere...
The analysis of Caio Paes de Andrades’s appointment at Petrobras will take longer than expected, the House approved the bill that establishes an ICMS tax limit on key items, and Senator Simone Tebet said she is against the privatization of Petrobras
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 May 2022
Petrobras’s Board of Directors determined that Caio Paes de Andrade's appointment will be submitted to the internal governance process, that is, it will have to be analyzed by the Petrobras People's Committee. The councilors also asked the government to send the other candidates to occupy seats o...