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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The shekel weakens on market volatility
ISRAEL · Report · 09 May 2022

* The shekel weakened last week on the back of the downward market correction. * We have revised our inflation forecast upwards, as we no longer expect shekel appreciation this year. * Growth indicators remain positive, the labor market continues to tighten and wage growth in the private ...

Russia says 3.9 million went abroad in Q1 2022
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 May 2022 · 1 response

The data comes from the Federal Security Service (FSB) and were published on May 6.The other former USSR countries saw an uptick of Russians arriving mostly for extended stays. People have left because they oppose the war, fear conscription, dislike the new atmosphere of stifling conformity and f...

G7 will phase out Russian oil
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 May 2022

On May 8 the US announced the move. The G7 includes the US, the UK, France, Germany, Japan and Canada. President Zelensky was allowed to take part in the online G7 conference. The United States said the move is to punish Russia for the Ukraine War and make it harder for Moscow to fund its militar...

All civilians evacuated from Azovstal, Mariupol
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 May 2022

On May 8 Ukraine announced that the evacuation from the steel factory had been completed. The Ukrainian soldiers are still in the factory. Russia is eager to capture Mariupol because then it will complete the land corridor from Russia to Crimea.Russia confirmed that the evacuation had been carrie...

The shekel weakens on market volatility
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 May 2022

We have revised our inflation forecast upwards to 3.3% NTM In the past, we factored in a modest shekel appreciation on the back of the strong CA surplus and net FDI. Currently, we think that equity market volatility is a more dominant factor impacting the shekel and therefore we are pricing sheke...

Livin' La Vida Loca
TURKEY · Forecast · 08 May 2022

We stick to the macro scenarios we’ve introduced in earlier reports but tweak the odds a little – for the worse, on the back of the adverse shock inflicted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. To recall, we surmised that three macroeconomic scenarios could play out between now and the elections, b...

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan face economic disaster
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 May 2022 · 1 response

The per capita income of the country is expected to be USD 1,300 per annum. That is the second lowest in the former USSR after Tajikistan. It is lower than war-torn Ukraine.Tajikistan is a mountainous land of 6 million people. It is largely bereft of natural resources. Sanctions on Russia indirec...

Ukrainian forces started counter-offensive amid inflowing modern weapons
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 May 2022

Two days till the May 9th, Victory Day – a sacred day for USSR-longing inhabitants of Russia. Now we can say it for sure, ‘the big battle for Donbas’ turned out to be one more failure for Russian army. Despite substantial concentration of forces and armors at the East, the Russians managed to get...

EU desperate for Azerbaijan's gas
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 May 2022

The EU is trying to wean itself off Russian oil by the end of 2022. The EU would like to reduce Russian gas imports but cannot see a way to stop them totally. 40% of EU gas comes from Russia. If Azerbaijan sells more gas to the EU, then the EU can decrease purchases of Russian gas very substantia...

Russia’s pandemic/political update: So they say in the news
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 May 2022

For yet another month the pandemic has not been a big issue either in the media or in the minds of ordinary Russians, as both the daily incidence rate and the death toll continued to fall (the former fell to around 5K in recent days from a peak of around 200K in mid-February). It was another irre...

A surprise rate hike
INDIA · Report · 06 May 2022

On May 4, the RBI came out with a surprise 40-bp rate hike. There are three puzzles here: Why a surprise action, why 40 bps, and why May 4? What is the monetary policy strategy that plausibly generated this? It is possible to reconstruct the logic for this from the viewpoint of exchange rate obj...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil up as OPEC+ tapers steadily, rate rises mirror Fed, CIA director visits Saudi
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 May 2022

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rises on Russian oil ban fears, a limited OPEC+ taper and stasis in Iran nuclear talks. * The NOPEC bill to enable antitrust action against OPEC passed a US Senate committee 17-4. * Most Gulf states mirrored the Fed’s ...

Fiscal expansion is counteracting lockdowns
CHINA · Report · 06 May 2022

Lockdowns in Shanghai and other cities since March have interfered with robust economic recovery. GDP rose 4.8% y/y in Q1, up 0.8 pps from Q4 2021, but 0.2 pps lower than in Q1 2021. Industrial output rose 6.5% in Q1, up 2.6 pps from Q4, but down 1 pps from January-February. Investment rose 9.3% ...

Tension between the branches of government remains high, João Doria still faces resistance in the PSDB, and Lula’s pre-candidacy for the Planalto Palace will be officially launched tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 May 2022

Regarding the institutional tension, STF President Fux has stated that he and Senate President Pacheco are “aligned on the objective of defending the government’s institutions and our Constitution”. Despite efforts at dialogue and attempts to de-escalate the institutional conflict, the likelihood...

Russian financial markets: a new approach to pricing
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 May 2022

The Russian economy will face a deep economic contraction in 2022 amid the harsh sanctions regime, and its financial markets have to adjust rapidly, trying to find an acceptable way to exist in the new reality. This process is further complicated by the rapid changes in external factors (mostly n...

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