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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

According to the MEF preliminary report, the first quarter of 2022 showed good news for the Central Government
PANAMA · Report · 13 Apr 2022

The recently published preliminary MEF report on total revenues showed positive signs in most items. Through March, accumulated current revenues were 6.5% above budget and 28.8% above last year's figures. Tax revenues increased 6.7% vis-a-vis the budget and 33.4% compared with 2021. Non-tax reven...

Inflation and war drives economic growth outlook lower
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 13 Apr 2022

Although the economy grew at a good pace in January and February, the persistence of inflation is worrying in a context of oil prices above $100 per barrel, and the uncertainty generated by the Russia-Ukraine war. Cumulative January-February GDP growth was 6% y/y, and inflation reached 8.98% in M...

The upcoming elections are increasing the amount of friction in Congress, there are several calls for increased spending, and the PT should discuss the Lula-Alckmin alliance
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Apr 2022

In the Senate, there is a conflict over the installation of Parliamentary Committees of Inquiry (CPIs). The opposition is trying to collect the necessary signatures to install a CPI to investigate the alleged irregularities in the Ministry of Education (MEC), and government allies have filed a re...

Shanghai lockdown
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Apr 2022

High frequency cinema opening data suggests a flattening out of the impact of Covid on the country, although it’s too early to tell. Meanwhile, the problems with the Shanghai lockdown highlight the central government’s experimentation with focused lockdowns but also raise questions about Beijing’...

Yet more EU companies leaving Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Apr 2022

On April 15 Russian ships will no longer be allowed to dock in EU ports. This will also apply to ships that have until recently been flagged as Russian. There may be some exceptions for ships carrying food and medicine.Russian-registered vehicles are also banned from EU roads. Societe General is ...

Easter break
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Apr 2022

The Philippines will take its annual Lenten break beginning Thursday. We leave our readers with two thoughts on the economy’s short-term outlook. The latest official survey by Pulse Asia conducted in mid-March, which showed Vice President Leni Robredo’s voter share jumping 9ppt to 24%, has invigo...

A windfall?
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 12 Apr 2022

We update the outlook we presented to you just four weeks ago. A little more than a month after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine and in an environment of tremendous volatility and uncertainty, oil prices have risen sharply, world oil and gas markets are undergoing restructuring, and the e...

​The Federal budget surplus rises in March
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Apr 2022

The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget surplus reached R614bn and R1.151trln in March and 1Q22. The revenue collection was strong both on the side of oil-and-gas and the non-oil-and-gas taxes. In 1Q22, the government collected 28.7% of total targeted for 2022 revenues (31.2% of ...

Castillo against the wall; further downside economic risks; Central Bank to deliver two more 50-bp shots
PERU · Report · 12 Apr 2022

​Faced with widespread nationwide protests, and after his advisors warned of possible serious disturbances in Lima, President Pedro Castillo delivered an April 5th midnight speech, during which he imposed an immediate 22-hour curfew in Lima and Callao. The demonstrations had begun on March 28th, ...

Lula had dinner with MDB leaders in Brasília yesterday, the House may vote on the Auxílio Brasil MP, and the Senate Economic Affairs Committee may vote on the ISS bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Apr 2022

Former Senate President Eunício Oliveira made a point of stressing that the dinner does not mean Simone Tebet's candidacy will be boycotted. It is also worth mentioning that the MDB is negotiating an alliance with the PSDB, União Brasil and Cidadania for October. It is unlikely that the third way...

Politics: Presidential recall referendum, main implications
MEXICO · Report · 12 Apr 2022

The results of the presidential recall referendum may be considered as a good or a bad outcome depending on the comparisons one makes. Its implications for the 2024 elections do not favor the president, and it can be projected that the fight to control the INE and the legality of elections assume...

Kazakhstan macro: looking for opportunities in 2022
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 12 Apr 2022

According to Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics, the nation’s economy grew by 4.0% in 2021. The 2021 figure looked reasonably good after the 2.5% contraction in 2020, especially due to the fact that the pandemic started to influence the Kazakh economy several months later than in Russia a...

Kazakhstan macro: looking for opportunities in 2022
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Apr 2022

According to Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics, the nation’s economy grew by 4.0% in 2021. The 2021 figure looked reasonably good after the 2.5% contraction in 2020, especially due to the fact that the pandemic started to influence the Kazakh economy several months later than in Russia a...

​Just for the record: new fiscal 2021 figures has published by MEF. The NFPS deficit in 2021 was revised upwards
PANAMA · In Brief · 11 Apr 2022 · 1 response

On April 4, the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) issued its revision of the Balances of the Central Government and the Non-Financial Public Sector for 2021. The net deficit of the NFPS changed from 5.53% of GDP to 6.66% of GDP in 2021 (US$ 3.523 billion to US$ 4.238 billion) or 20.3% larger....

Austrian Chancellor visits Moscow and Kyiv to talk peace
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Apr 2022

On April 11 Karl Nehammer spoke to Putin in person for an hour. His attempt to persuade Putin to end military action failed. Nehammer then flew to Kyiv to meet Zelensky.Austria is an EU but not a NATO member. Therefore, its attempt to broker peace was not rejected outright by Russia despite the E...

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