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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russian macro: in search of integrity
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Mar 2022

Having experienced a shock, a month after the start of the military operation some Russian producers and ministries began talking about inevitable changes to their business plans. Even when things go in line with the plans made at the very top level, making one's own plans becomes increasingly co...

Preparing for the new normal
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Mar 2022

The Indonesian economy has been significantly affected by the pandemic for the past two years, and this has had a significant bearing on the Indonesian government budget. Expenditures for medical assistance were very high over the past two years, as were expenses for the social safety net program...

Adriano Pires will be the new president of Petrobras, Minister of Education Milton Ribeiro stepped down, and Eduardo Leite has decided to remain in the PSDB
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Mar 2022

The Ministry of Mines and Energy has confirmed the appointment of Adriano Pires to the presidency of Petrobras. The company's Ordinary General Meeting will take place on April 13, which is when Adriano should assume his position as head of the state-owned company. In addition to the change at Pet...

Russia and Erdogan talk in Turkey
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Mar 2022

President Erdogan is hosting delegations from the two countries. Erdogan said it is vital that the two sides make progress. Turkey has cordial relations with Russia despite being a NATO country and an ally of Azerbaijan which is a foe of Armenia (a Russian ally). Turkey has sold bayraktar drones ...

Finance Minister Dr. Nigel Clarke auditions for world's best as William and Kate arrive in Jamaica. His stated agenda - "Reform with ambition"
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 29 Mar 2022

Jamaica’s budget debate was concluded last week by Finance Minister Dr. Nigel Clarke on Tuesday, March 22, just as Prince William and his wife Kate were arriving in Jamaica as part of their three-nation royal visit of Belize, Jamaica and The Bahamas, all of which still have the Queen as their hea...

Fidesz holds its lead just one week before the election, poll says
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Mar 2022

Exactly one week before the election, due on the coming Sunday (April 3), Závecz Research measured in an opinion poll 41% support for Fidesz and 39% support for United for Hungary, that is the united opposition, both as percentage of the whole electorate. Závecz Research is a leading local pollst...

​Opposition Front: United, we stand strong
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Mar 2022

Leaders of the six parties constituting the loose Nation Alliance gathered the second time in a month on Sunday night. At the top of the agenda was the AKP-MHP proposed amendments to the Electoral Law which largely aims tonix the chances of smaller parties to elect deputies to the Grand Assembly....

Politics: Attorney General’s Office, top prosecutor bogged down in scandals, mutual attacks
MEXICO · Report · 28 Mar 2022 · 1 response

The public spotlight continues to be focused on Mexico’s top prosecutor, Alejandro Gertz Manero, but the implications and fallout from his shenanigans are also affecting President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his inner circle. Gertz remains mired in legal scandals related to his attempt to use...

Economics: Perception of Banxico's following the Fed poses medium-term risks
MEXICO · Report · 28 Mar 2022

In the wake of the Federal Reserve’s March 16 quarter-point tightening and notification that it has the intention to raise borrowing costs at each successive rate review scheduled for the current year, Mexico’s central bank did not take long to respond. While this was the Fed’s initial rate lift...

Lula and Bolsonaro advance while the others stall and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Mar 2022

This will be a busy week due to the deadline for party affiliations and resignations. Bolsonaro will likely build a new ministerial team. Up to eight governors are expected to resign from their positions to run for another elective office in October. This week's Talking Points: * Eduar...

Commodity Prices, Terms of Trade and the Real Exchange Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Mar 2022

In 2019, Brazil’s current account deficit was US$65 billion, while in 2021 it reached only US$24.5 billion. Our projections for 2022 indicate there should be a small surplus. The greatest contribution to this result will come from the balance of trade, whose surplus will benefit from the rising i...

Long-term RMB trend remains stable
CHINA · Report · 28 Mar 2022

Economic recovery has been relatively strong, thanks largely to export and fiscal policy support. In January-February, industrial output rose 7.5% y/y, up 3.2 pps from December 2021. Investment was up 12.2% y/y, up 7.3 pps from 2021. Real estate investment increased 3.7%, having stopped its previ...

The period for party affiliations, resignations and electoral registration ends this week, the Minister of Education will speak in the Senate on Thursday, and there will be two important judgments in the STF
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Mar 2022

The period for party affiliations, resignations and electoral registration ends on April 2. April 1 is the last day that proportional office holders (federal, state and district deputies) are allowed to switch parties without risking losing their mandate. Milton Ribeiro, the Minister of Education...

​Argentina's new USD debt payments after the EFF approval
ARGENTINA · Report · 28 Mar 2022

Following last week´s expected Senate approval, on Friday the board of directors of the IMF approved Argentina´s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program. This puts a formal end to a nearly two-year debt negotiation, including the first-ever local Congressional debate to endorse such a financing prog...

The Bank of Israel prepares markets for aggressive tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 28 Mar 2022

1. Deputy Governor Abir suggested that more aggressive tightening is likely, due to inflation acceleration. 2. The labor market is rapidly returning to pre-Covid employment levels, considered full employment. 3. Hi-tech service exports continue to expand rapidly, supportive of shekel...

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