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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Research trip reflections: the impact of a changing Saudi Arabia and differing approaches to the oil windfall
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Mar 2022

I've just completed a 3-week 6-country tour around the GCC to take a sounding of the mood as Covid cases and restrictions ease. I had dozens of meetings with academics, officials, journalists, business leaders, investors and others, whose time, insights and hospitality I greatly appreciate. Trave...

China withdraws from Russian gas marketing deal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Mar 2022

On March 27 it was announced that Sinopec Group is pulling out of a USD 500 million deal to market gas for Sibur. Sinopec Group is state run and fears being sanctioned if it proceeds with the deal.Sinopec attended a meeting with the Chinese Foreign Ministry before announcing its decision. This ha...

UAE: Quick thoughts on Sharjah's paused sukuk issuance
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 28 Mar 2022 · 1 response

Sharjah began marketing a $750m sukuk last week, its first since July 2021. We had initially thought this had priced on Friday, but this was incorrect (thanks for the correction from a client). The issuance seems to have paused because of volatile rates (GC) but may price this week. Here are a fe...

The Bank of Israel prepares markets for aggressive tightening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Mar 2022

The Deputy Governor suggests aggressive tightening ahead At a conference on Thursday, Andrew Abir said: “In view of recent developments in inflation and the increase in expectations, the process of monetary tapering may be more rapid than we thought.” Clearly, a rate hike on April 11th is to be e...

Uptick in fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Mar 2022

Three Armenian soldiers were killed on March 25 in skirmishes with Azerbaijan. The two countries fought a war in 2020 that Azerbaijan won. There are Russian peacekeepers keeping the Armenians and Azerbaijanis apart. This is supposed to ensure that neither side fires on the other for fear of hitti...

Ukraine abroad, electoral bill at home
TURKEY · Report · 27 Mar 2022 · 1 response

As the Ukraine war stretches into extra innings with a horrifying human toll, Turkey is inexorably sucked into the black hole. At the diplomatic front, all three sides seem to be testing her loyalty. Regarding the West, Erdogan failed the first litmus test by rejecting a presumed US suggestion to...

The first month of the war has passed: recapturing of occupied lands in progress
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Mar 2022

The first month of the war has passed. Apparently, Kremlin miscalculated readiness of Ukrainians to defend their freedoms. If the eastern part of the country might had had some illusions about Russia before 2014, they had a chance to see an excellent demonstration what “Russian world” is in occup...

GULF WEEKLY: Houthis bombard KSA, Sharjah markets sukuk, Oman boosts capex
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Mar 2022 · 1 response

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Aramco will increase capex but not its dividend. * Saudi Arabia suffered a barrage of Houthi attacks, including damage to an LPG refinery. The US has finally restocked KSA’s patriot missiles, despite bilateral tensions. ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Mar 2022

As the oil price has moved higher, in recent days hovering around $120/bbl, the ruble bounced back and has seemingly stabilized. Accordingly, banks became less dependent on the liquidity provided by the CBR. Still, the ruble fluctuated in a wide range amid the unstoppable news flow. An idea to st...

Polls show Bolsonaro’s popularity is recovering, Eduardo Leite should step down as governor of Rio Grande do Sul today, and there will be major political moves next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Mar 2022

Since the government has announced measures that have not yet had an effect on public opinion, such as the early access to the 13th salary installment for retirees and pensioners and the withdrawals of up to R$ 1,000 from the FGTS, there is room for the distance between Bolsonaro and Lula to narr...

Another 25-bp increase in the repo rate by the South African Reserve Bank
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Mar 2022

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced yesterday that it is once again raising the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points – its third consecutive increase. This pushes the repo rate up​ from 4% to 4.25% and the prime lending rate from 7.5% to 7.75%. ...

Essential CIS Politics: March 2022
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 24 Mar 2022

• Russia invaded Ukraine, and this has proved a tougher fight for Russia than everyone anticipated. On February 24 Russian forces crossed the border into what even Russia recognizes as Ukrainian territory. Conflict has been raging across much of the country since then – and seen the outright d...

The 1-week deposit rate went up to 6.15% today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Mar 2022

This represented another +30 bps, continuing the MNB's step-by-step tightening policy. As we said twice already, the Bank has appeared to defend the EURHUF 370 level in practice since early November, and as the exchange rate stood at 375 immediately before the decision, it may have appeared appro...

Russia expels 12 US diplomats
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Mar 2022

On March 23 Moscow made the move in reprisal for the US expelling 12 Russian diplomats who worked at the UN. The United States expelled the Russians three weeks ago, so the Russian response was a surprisingly long time in coming. The US called the move unjustified. Notably, Russia did not accuse ...

The crisis in the Ministry of Education continues, two new polls on the presidential election will be published today, and the STF postponed the analysis of the Carf cases to today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Mar 2022

Prosecutor General Augusto Aras asked the STF to open an investigation into the Minister of Education, Milton Ribeiro. In recordings, mayors revealed that pastors who work with the Ministry of Education have been requesting bribes. For the time being, the incident shouldn’t cause further damage t...

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