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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Supply Shocks and Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Mar 2022

In response to the two shocks caused by the Russia-Ukraine war – oil prices and food prices – the Central Bank raised the SELIC rate by one percentage point at the last COPOM meeting, and announced that a new increase of the same magnitude is impending at the next meeting, which would put the rat...

Impact of the Ukraine war on India
INDIA · Report · 21 Mar 2022

In thinking about the impact of the Ukraine war for India, there are three pathways: trade and investment, global financial/economic conditions, and geopolitical problems. In terms of trade and investment, there are low connections with the two countries. In terms of global financial/economi...

26th day of war: economy seriously damaged but MinFin commits to continue debt servicing
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Mar 2022

Since no big movements at the front are observed, except for continued desperate attempts of Russians to overtake Mariupol, we have an opportunity to pay more attention to economic developments in Ukraine over the recent weeks. Military actions run at the territories that used to produce 60% of U...

Turkey Covid Watch - March 21, 2022
TURKEY · Report · 21 Mar 2022

Cases continued to drop dramatically in the past two weeks. For the week ending Sunday, cases declined to 20.3K, corresponding to some 57% decline from two weeks ago. The virus seems to be losing its grip on the country and cases are widely expected to decline further in the coming weeks. Still, ...

Geraldo Alckmin will join the PSB on Wednesday, four new presidential polls will be published this week, and the CCJ in the Senate will make another attempt to approve Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Mar 2022

Former Governor Geraldo Alckmin’s affiliation with the PSB practically confirms his candidacy as Vice President alongside former President Lula. This possibility will be discussed at the National Directory of the PT the following day. Time is running out for Eduardo Leite to define his political ...

Nothing but uncertainty
CHILE · Report · 21 Mar 2022 · 1 response

We have cut our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 3%, with a downward bias. A contraction phase seems to be taking shape. For February and March, we again expect adverse effects from the pandemic. In addition, external conditions have deteriorated, because of the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine....

Labor market recovery is rate hike supportive
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Mar 2022

Broad unemployment (including Covid furloughs and those out of a job due to Covid but not actively seeking employment) declined to 5.4% in February from to 5.6% in January. The official narrow definition of unemployment remained at 3.7%. The number of workers increased by 37 thousand in February,...

Accelerating inflation will support tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 21 Mar 2022 · 1 response

1. Annual inflation is expected to accelerate to around 4.5% y/y by May and stabilize at this level for most of 2022. 2. The labor market continues to tighten as the number of job vacancies reaches new highs. 3. We expect the rate tightening cycle to commence on April 11, with rates ...

​Diplomatic dividends and costs
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Mar 2022 · 1 response

The Politics Author missed contributing to the Weekly on account of a long-delayed family reunion. He shall pay penance with a couple of market briefs during the week. There are topics on which I refrain from commenting because they have little practical value for domestic political dynamics or t...

Solid budget, weaker reserves
TURKEY · Report · 20 Mar 2022 · 1 response

In this very brief economics-only Weekly, we provide a few thoughts on the February budget as well as the housing price and sale data of the past week. We also review the key financial data through the week of March 11, notably the CBRT reserves, and share a few other tidbits. As signaled by t...

Kazakhstan will reduce the power of the president
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Mar 2022

On March 17 President Tokayev announced that he intends to amend the constitution. In future the country will primarily be controlled by parliament and the presidency will become a ceremonial role. The regions shall be granted greater autonomy. The president will no longer be able to annul or sus...

Turkmenistan inaugurates new president
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Mar 2022

On March 19 Serdar Berdymukhammedov was sworn in. The 40 year old is the son of the former president. Serdar is soft spoken, unemotional and indifferent to the wellbeing of his people. He studied in Moscow and Switzerland and speaks fluent English. There is no signal that the new administration w...

Kazakhstan to use RUB when trading with Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Mar 2022

On March 18 it was announced that this move would be made when Kazakhstan trades with Belarus and Russia. Kazakhstan is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). However, when trading with other EAEU members (Armenia and Kyrgyzstan) Kazakhstan will use USD. Sanctions on Russia have hit Kaza...

Four EU countries expel 17 Russian diplomats
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Mar 2022

On March 18 Bulgaria said the 10 diplomats were personae non grata for activities incompatible with diplomatic status (i.e. spying). The three Baltic nations followed suit expelling a further 7 diplomats. The three Baltic republics are worried because they are former Soviet states.Bulgaria is a f...

​GULF WEEKLY: Saudi looks to China, DEWA's IPO is going ahead, Oman plans to reduce debt
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Mar 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil prices rebounded strongly after the IEA estimated about 3m b/d of Russian oil could be shut in. * Saudi Arabia is reportedly considering selling some oil in yuan and has invited China’s president to visit. * The Iran ...

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