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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​OFZ market to reopen on Mar 21, CBR will be ready to purchase bonds
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Mar 2022

Today CBR announced that secondary OFZ trading will reopen next Monday, March 21, after a two-week break, which was caused by the introduction of harsh anti-Russian sanctions. Since the closure of the market, the key rate has increased to a record high of 20%. To reduce potential volatility regul...

President Castillo faces impeachment; fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war
PERU · Report · 18 Mar 2022

Congress on March 8th rejected the no-confidence vote in the cabinet of Prime Minister Aníbal Torres. Although President Pedro Castillo has been in office for less than eight months, this is already his fourth cabinet, and the third to undergo such a vote. The previous cabinet, led by Héctor Vale...

Webinar Replay - Chile: Reviewing the new administration's policies
CHILE · Report · 18 Mar 2022

Gain insights on Chile's new administration. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Robert Funk and Igal Magendzo as they discuss President Boric’s post-inaugural political and economic plans and provide an update on the progress of Chile’s Constitutional Convention.

ICJ rules against Russia as war costs mount
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Mar 2022 · 1 response

On March 17 the International Court of Justice ruled against Russia 11-2. The ICJ ordered Russia to suspend hostilities immediately. It said Russia's claim of genocide in Ukraine is bogus. The Kremlin rejected the court's ruling and jurisdiction. Russia sent no lawyers or officials to the ICJ to ...

The federal government announced measures that could inject R$ 150 billion into the economy, some of Bolsonaro’s vetoes were overturned in Congress yesterday, and the 10th National Forum of Governors takes place next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Mar 2022

One of the government’s measures allows the withdrawal of up to R$ 1,000 from the Guaranteed Service Time Fund (FGTS). Another allows for early access to the 13th salary installment for INSS retirees and pensioners. The package may improve the government's ratings. One of the vetoes that was over...

The Federal budget in surplus in 2M22, amendments to come
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Mar 2022

Minfin reported that in 2M22 the federal budget surplus exceeded R0.4 trln as revenues and expenditures reached R4.2 trln (16.8% of the annual plan) and R3.8 trln (16.0% pf the plan). The government collected R1.8 trln in oil-and-gas revenues and reg rest of R2.4 trln came from the non-oil-and-ga...

No sterilisation rate hike has taken place today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Mar 2022

At today's 1-week deposit tender, the MNB kept the fixed interest rate unchanged at last week's 5.85%. This surprised us a bit, as we expected +25-30bps, despite the fact that the forint had appreciated quite substantially, back to EURHUF370, in recent days. The forint has actually weakened sligh...

MPC: Current account surplus no more, but no action
TURKEY · Report · 17 Mar 2022

The Monetary Policy Committee left the policy rate (one-week repo) unchanged at 14% today, in line with expectations, market rumors of a modest rate hike notwithstanding.

The federal government will announce measures to stimulate the economy, Petrobras was criticized from all angles yesterday, and public servants are still calling for a salary raise
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Mar 2022

In response to the lowering of the economic growth prediction for this year, from 2.1% to 1.5%, Bolsonaro will launch the Income and Opportunity Program tomorrow. The program should allow access to funds for people to pay off their debts. Yesterday, Bolsonaro said that Petrobras CEO Joaquim Silva...

Economic dissent at the top
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 17 Mar 2022

The volatile Chinese equity markets forced economics czar Liu He to make a statement quieting the markets. That has led to expectations of a new stimulus, including state promotion of equities (the “national team”). Although Xi Jinping dislikes volatility, whatever stimulus measures that are adop...

Russia avoids default on Sovereign Eurobonds
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Mar 2022

Yesterday the Finance Ministry had to pay down coupons on two issues of Sovereign Eurobonds with maturity in 2023 and 2043 worth $117 mln in aggregate. It sent a correspondent order to paying agent on Monday, but it was not clear whether it will be executed or not given the “freeze” of accounts o...

China’s Russian loans
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 17 Mar 2022

China is now considered Russia’s most important partner due to their close strategic, political, and economic relationship. How do we value this relationship? One way is to examine the loans China has made to Russia over the past decade. Using the Aiddata loan database from William and Mary colle...

Cyber attacks on Russia increasing
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Mar 2022

On March 17 the Russian state news agency TASS announced that Russia is facing more cyber attacks than ever. The government is trying to filter foreign web traffic to minimize this.Government agencies and state owned companies are being cyber attacked and it is presumably because of Ukraine. Aero...

The 22nd day of war: monstrous war crimes of Russians flush down negotiation efforts
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Mar 2022

Russians are facing defeat on all directions. Ukrainian forces are cautiously but persistently running tactical counterattack operations. A big group of Russian forces was encircled near Kyiv (Irpin-Bucha) and destroyed. Another large group of Russian military was encircled and eliminated near Vo...

​Amendments to the Electoral Bill: More gerrymandering, but uncertain consequences
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Mar 2022 · 1 response

I had given up on AKP-MHP agreeing on amendments to the Electoral Bill (EB), and had opined that as described by the press, even if it were to be legislated it will have no signaling value for the election date. I was wrong in the first conclusion, but the second stands. As well, I’d underestimat...

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