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High inflation dampens news that Senate Commission approved treatment of IMF agreement
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 16 Mar 2022

As anticipated, the Senate Committee on the Budget approved yesterday that the IMF agreement will be sent to the upper house to be voted on tomorrow, Thursday. The political support was ample, with 15 votes in favor and only 2 dissidents. As said before, such a pragmatic position of the Committee...

Special rate of inflation amid the special military operation
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Mar 2022

Rosstat reported that inflation in seven days ending on March 11 reached 2.09%, and the MTD inflation on the same day was at 3.38%. As a result, the YTD figure jumped to 5.62%. Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, which according to the country’s authorities goes in line with the plan,...

A mixed local picture, less than three weeks before Election Day
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Mar 2022

First and foremost, the weekly 1-week deposit tender is due tomorrow. At present, the forint is doing OK at EURHUF 370, thanks to some improvement with Russia/Ukraine and more with energy prices. Yet we believe the MNB cannot stop entirely with interest rate hikes, as the currency market is set t...

Zelensky says Ukraine will never join NATO
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Mar 2022

On March 15 the prime ministers of Poland, Slovenia and the Czech Republic traveled to Kyiv to meet Zelensky. The Czech PM assured Ukraine of Czech support. The Polish PM said that the EU must not allow Ukraine to be defeated. Ukraine called for the EU to designate Russia a sponsor of terrorism.R...

The Senate CCJ will analyze the Tax Reform proposal, the government is hoping its measures to stimulate the economy will improve its popularity, and a new presidential poll will be published today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Mar 2022

The rapporteur of the Tax Reform proposal is Senator Roberto Rocha (PSDB-MA). We still believe that Senate approval is unlikely this year. Despite recognizing that this matter is important, the Senate still has not reached a consensus on the text. One of the government’s economic measures is the ...

Improving
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 15 Mar 2022

With 2024 presidential elections in sight, the government's goal continues to be to mitigate inflation and "de-dollarize" the economy with measures that bolster the demand for bolivars and contain dollar appreciation against the bolivar even if it means staying on the current modest and unequal e...

Monetary tightening expected to be fairly aggressive
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Mar 2022

Another upside inflation surprise Inflation in February was up 0.7% m/m and 3.5% y/y (accelerating from 3.1% last month), above market consensus of 3.3%. Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) accelerated to 3% y/y from 2.7%. February’s upside surprise came from basically two...

Son of Turkmen President to succeed him
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Mar 2022

On March 15 the result of the election was declared. Serdar Berdymukhammedov won 73% of the vote and the turnout was 97%. Public sector workers had been told to vote on pain of dismissal. There were 8 other candidates, all of whom were pro-regime and solely standing for optical purposes. The elec...

The main focus for the week is the increase in commodity prices, and there is a lull in congressional activities due to electoral negotiations
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Mar 2022

The consequences of the war between Russia and Ukraine, especially the impact on commodity prices in Brazil, will be the main focus for the week. One of the biggest concerns in the market and in the business sector in general remains the truck drivers issue. While there is some discontent due to ...

2.5 million Ukrainian refugees causing strain in Europe
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Mar 2022

Since February 24 over 2.5 million Ukrainians have fled the country. This figure is only going to grow as the Russian Army penetrates deeper into Ukraine. There are other Ukrainians who are displaced within Ukraine.Ukraine has a population of 42 million. Some of them are pro-Russian and will not ...

Economics: Oil spike adds to pressure on peso for 2022 and public finance perspectives
MEXICO · Report · 14 Mar 2022

The considerable rise in the price of oil arising in response to the war in Ukraine and its broader geopolitical ramifications has been the source of intense discussion among analysts and authorities regarding its potential impact on Mexico. It is important to consider the diversity of such effec...

Israeli saving institutions purchased 3.5bn USD in January
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Mar 2022

Israeli institutions purchased 3.5bn USD net in January, following purchases of 1.6bn in December. In January, institutions purchased assets abroad of 1.0bn USD and purchased FX via derivatives by an additional 2.5bn. Global equity markets declined sharply in January, forcing Israeli institutions...

The Brazilian Economy in a Turbulent World
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Mar 2022

Before the war caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the IMF had projected a significant slowdown of the global economy this year. With the war and the corresponding shocks to fuel and food prices, the deceleration should be greater. Before the war’s outbreak, Brazil’s monetary policy al...

Politics: Law enforcement system in crisis, with reversals and new scandals
MEXICO · Report · 14 Mar 2022

The Mexican prosecutorial system as represented by the Federal Attorney General’s Office (FGR) has been unable to implement the promised modernization and, in fact, is mired in new scandals. Despite broad recognition across the political spectrum that the country’s prosecutorial system is in need...

Everyone woke up worried
COLOMBIA · Report · 14 Mar 2022 · 1 response

As of March 14th, we assign a 40% probability to a Petro victory. Petro or the center-right candidate have a similar predicament, namely the support of its base and the support of the undecided, swing voters, not aligned politically. This is a delicate and beautiful balance to be forged either...

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