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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Between hope and despair
TURKEY · Report · 14 Nov 2021 · 2 responses

The politics author unveils his base-case scenario for domestic politics for next year, urged by members of our audience during numerous meetings over the past week. This scenario entails Erdogan’s health slipping further; ‘early-early’ elections won by the opposition that culminate in a new ...

The fiscal deficit is expected to undershoot in 2022, supporting low issuance
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Nov 2021

The fiscal deficit declines sharply In the last 12 months through October the fiscal deficit declined to 5.5% GDP from 11.9% in March. Tax revenues in January-October 21 are up 19% in real terms compared to two years ago (pre-Covid). We expect a fiscal deficit this year of 4.7% GDP, below the off...

Rosneft makes record profit as energy prices soar
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Nov 2021

The Russian oil major said on November 12 that it has made a handsome profit in Q3 2021. Rosneft made a net profit of USD 4.3 billion that quarter. That was 35% up on Q2. It is also a 60% YoY increase for the quarter.The CEO said that rising energy prices will lead to even greater profits as dema...

Disinflation surprises
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Nov 2021

Thanks to aggressive central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market and an acceleration in public outlays milder than we had expected, October’s monthly inflation rate came in at 9 percent. This marks a slowdown from September’s 10 percent and was lower than the 15-percent rate we had p...

South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement presents a slightly better fiscus, but it may be only a temporarily relief
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 12 Nov 2021

Having been contending with the Covid-19 pandemic for over a year and a half, the South African government, like most governments globally, has been juggling countless needs pressing on its coffers, while at the same time attempting to contain public debt to eventually bring it down to prudent le...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi issues bonds as Moody’s stabilizes, Kuwait pardons opposition and cabinet resigns, Oman slashes business fees
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Nov 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia issued $3.25bn in 30-year bonds and 9.5-year sukuk and is looking to refinance a $16bn loan. * Moody’s raised the Saudi outlook back to Stable on improved fiscal policy effectiveness. * The Saudi flash GDP show...

Senators begin to take position on the Court-ordered payments PEC, the CCJ of the House may vote on the extension of the payroll tax exemption next week & the Senate Economic Affairs Committee may vote on the bill that deals with privatization of Correios
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Nov 2021

Some senators are raising questions about the excesses of funds contained in the PEC. There may be adjustments to the text in order to guarantee a higher payment of court orders. Depending on the change, the entire proposal may not have to be returned for analysis in the House. A bill pending in ...

Russia is back as a twin-surplus economy in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Nov 2021

The Finance Ministry reported that in 10M21 federal budget revenues exceeded the formally approved annual budget plan by 8.9%. Oil-and-gas revenues exceeded the annual plan by 21.8%, while the non-oil-and-gas revenues were higher than the annual target by 2.8%. Total revenues reached R20.4 trln w...

Bloomberg reports potential Russian invasion in Ukraine: what’s going on?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Nov 2021

Bloomberg published an article “U.S. Warns Europe That Russia May Plan Ukraine Invasion”. The author uses really tough and even scary wording trying to give a message that “there’s no way of knowing Moscow’s true intentions” but the Kremlin is building military forces at the border of Ukraine and...

Build-up of migrants on Poland-Belarus Border leads to threat of more sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Nov 2021

Hundreds of illegal immigrants are stranded on the frontier as temperatures plummet. They have very little in the way of tents, food or winter clothing. These people wish to enter Poland because it is an EU state. Poland and Lithuania have rushed troops to their border with Belarus and are buildi...

Russian IPOs slow but still much better than before the pandemic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Nov 2021

There have been some disappointing stock market launches and deals that have fallen through this year for Russian companies. That comes after a string of astonishingly successful IPOs. Two massive deals were axed in November 2021. The cars sharing company Delimobil and the discount alcohol store ...

Fuel prices frozen for three months from next week
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Nov 2021

The government cabinet decided today to set a HUF480 per litre administrative maximum for the consumer prices of fuels, for three months starting from next Monday (November 15). This level is 5.1% below the current average price of gasoline-95 and 6.3% below the average price of diesel.This measu...

Ukraine struggles with coronavirus but receives free vaccines
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Nov 2021

The country had 833 coronavirus deaths on November 9. There were 17,000 new cases diagnosed that day. The EU will probably remove Ukraine from its white list (list of safe countries). That will make it all but impossible for Ukrainian residents who are unvaccinated to travel to the EU. The countr...

​Has the final AKP-MHP counter-assault started?
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Nov 2021

I had closed my last mid-week update with an ominous warning: “Ancient taboos of Turkish politics are crumbling down, as events accelerate to light speed. Expect the unexpected”. There are tentative signs of AKP-MHP indeed launching a final counterattack on the opposition alliance and economic mi...

The House concluded the vote on the Court-ordered payments PEC, the STF trial on the rapporteur’s amendments may end today, and Sergio Moro joins the Podemos
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Nov 2021

Only one edit to the Court-ordered payments PEC was approved, removing the possibility of changing the “golden rule” through the Budget Law. The proposal will now go to the Senate for further analysis. Rodrigo Pacheco has said that he may take the proposal directly to the plenary. In the STF, a m...

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