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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​Biden – Erdogan summit overshadowed by health rumors
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Nov 2021

President Erdogan’s wish finally came true, when the US side confirmed in the 11th hour a meeting between him and Joe Biden. As to what happened in that meeting, sides politely disagree. It is fair to say nothing new emerged from the summit, which I can call concrete positive progress. Summit new...

Inflation up to 8.13% y-o-y in October despite CBR series of rate hikes
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Nov 2021

Rosstat reported that inflation in October continued to accelerate – the m-o-m figure was at 1.11%, while inflation y-o-y accelerated to 8.13%. Inflation YTD reached 6.49%. Inflation w-o-w remained steady and high, showing no clear signs of deceleration (in the seven days ending on November 1, it...

Ukraine accuses Russia of moving troops to the border
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Nov 2021

On November 2 satellite images were published showing Russian forces massing near the Ukrainian Border. Moscow vehemently denied this. There has been an escalation in fighting between the Ukrainian Army and pro-Moscow rebels. The Ukrainian Defense Minister resigned on November 2 on health grounds...

The shekel appreciated sharply last week
ISRAEL · Report · 03 Nov 2021

The pace of shekel appreciation has accelerated, with the shekel up by 1.5% last week (against the basket of currencies), and by 1.7% in October, as BOI intervention declined. Yet, pressure for appreciation is likely to continue on strong fundamentals and FDI. Private consumption growth slowed as...

Bad print, but good enough for CBRT
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2021

Consumer prices rose by a slightly less than expected 2.4% in October, m/m, with the 12-month rate therefore edging up further to just under 20% (19.9%) from 19.6% in September. Producer prices increased sharply again in October, by 5.2%, m/m, with the 12-month rate thus reaching a historic high ...

The Court-ordered payments PEC should be put to a vote today, the truck drivers’ strike should remain small, and TV host José Luiz Datena left the PSL to join the PSD
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Nov 2021

The government is hoping to reach the ideal number of at least 475 deputies in the plenary to reach a quorum and be able to approve the PEC. There are two options if the proposal is not approved: a provisional measure to issue extraordinary credit or a bill in Congress for supplemental credit. Th...

SAUDI: The Q3 fiscal surplus means the 2021 outturn should nearly balance, and we expect a 2%+ surplus in 2022
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 03 Nov 2021

* The 0.9% of GDP surplus in Q3 was only the second on record in the quarterly series. * VAT revenue beat our expectations, and oil was in line, given higher prices and production. * Spending dipped in Q3 but is still likely to come in a little above budget. * We have halved our deficit foreca...

​The conditioned Pavlov response
ARGENTINA · Report · 02 Nov 2021

As expected, and yet imprudently, the government’s economic direction further embraced the Vice President´s “textbook” recommendations after the adverse results in the September primary elections. Like a conditioned Pavlov response to the stimulus of an anticipated electoral defeat, the governmen...

New cabinet reshuffle: when changes change nothing
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Nov 2021

The media wrote that already this week new people will take seats in the Cabinet. This is nothing new. We heard about inevitable replacements in the Cabinet back in June. But it took some time for the ruling group to deliver this new reshuffle. As David Arakhamia, the Head of parliamentary factio...

​Economic growth remained strong in September and 3Q21, though the 4Q21 looks more challenging amid rising incidence rate
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2021

The Rosttat reported that real incomes in Russia grew y-o-y by 4.4% and 7.6% in 9M21 and 3Q21. In 3Q21 real incomes were higher than in 2Q21 by 4.5% (not seasonally adjusted). Similar numbers for real disposable incomes were 4.1%, 8.1%, and 4.6%. Both real incomes and real disposable incomes are ...

The origins and consequences of opposition splinters
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Nov 2021

The question as to whether to boycott elections has caused a progressive splintering of the opposition. Some individuals and groups bent on participating in elections officially break off from their parties or coalitions to do so; others simply participate in disregard for their parties’ official...

China’s property bubble and the wealthy – who will win?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 02 Nov 2021

China is struggling with reducing the property bubble while maintaining adequate housing for the population along with adequate growth in the property sector. Now, there is talk of an expansion of local property taxes to replace land sales as a source of revenue. Can China restructure its revenue...

Russia imposes digital passes due to coronavirus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2021

On November 1 TASS news agency reported the new scheme. People will have to show a pass to enter certain buildings. The system was used in Moscow briefly in the summer of 2021. The scannable barcode system will combat the spread of black market passes and forged vaccination certificates. Russia i...

A big step is made towards ending the domestic debt moratorium
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Nov 2021

The statutory moratorium on bank debts, introduced for domestic households and non-financial enterprises as a protection against the initial Covid shock in March 2020, ended in its original form yesterday (October 31). So far, the aforementioned types of borrowers have enjoyed the right to a mora...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Nov 2021

The news about the evolution of the pandemic in Brazil continues to be upbeat: the seven-day moving average of the number of deaths is stable at around 300, and 74% of the population has received at least one vaccine dose, while 55% have completed the immunization cycle. However, there are big di...

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