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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

MNB balance sheet suggests the forint has only limited potential upside left against the euro
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Jun 2021

The end-May balance sheet of the MNB was released today. We made a simple calculation to find out how much room is left for further potential forint strengthening against the euro. The result is that at EURHUF 350, the forint is almost as strong as the maximum level it can potentially reach. This...

The Full Adjustment of the Interest Rate: In Search of the Inflation Target
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Jun 2021

At the next COPOM meeting (June 16), not only will the SELIC rate be increased by 75 basis points, there will also be announcement that the commitment is no longer to a partial adjustment, but rather to the adjustment necessary to bring inflation back to the target. This movement was already anti...

A clearer spot in the region
ECUADOR · Report · 14 Jun 2021

After two weeks in office, Guillermo Lasso registered the highest rate of approval since 1979. At 71.2% he was above Rafael Correa, who had 68% in his best days. In addition, two legislators from the Social Christian Party joined the official forces, which currently represent the second largest g...

Victor likely to have a weak mandate
PERU · Report · 14 Jun 2021

Most commentators expected a close result in the June 6th presidential election second-round runoff between Keiko Fujimori of Fuerza Popular and Pedro Castillo of Perú Libre. But few foresaw the razor’s-edge margin that would ultimately mean that the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE, the Electo...

Turkey Covid Watch - June 14, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 14 Jun 2021

Covid cases reached a bottom of about 5K on Sunday and vaccinations are up sharply this week. The circulation of the more contagious and vaccine-resistant Delta strain puts a damper on any jubilation this would otherwise have brought. Please note that we are shifting to a biweekly schedule with o...

Inflationary crosscurrents
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Jun 2021

Consumer prices rose by 27 percent month on month in May, an increase close to the 25 percent seen in April and steeper than our forecast lift of 11 percent. While factors we had anticipated worked to tame inflation, others we’d not foreseen kept it strong. As we had anticipated, money supply ...

Provisional measure on the privatization of Eletrobras should be put to a vote on Tuesday or Thursday, and four testimonies expected to take place in the COVID CPI this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jun 2021 · 1 response

The privatization of Eletrobras should be approved before it expires on June 22. The Special Committee on Administrative Reform should have a schedule for the analysis of the proposal by Tuesday. The STF will review the constitutionality of the law that grants the Central Bank autonomy. Demonstra...

Politics: 2021 election results and outlook
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jun 2021

Mexico’s much awaited and bitterly contested June 6 mid-term elections delivered mixed results. At stake in the vote to renew the Chamber of Deputies was the future of the 4T, AMLO’s project to radically transform Mexican political and economic life. Morena and its coalition partners proclaimed t...

Lieberman moves to cancel government furlough support
ISRAEL · Report · 14 Jun 2021

The new government was sworn in today, and we expect fiscal policy to be responsible. The fiscal deficit is trending lower on strong tax revenues and lower emergency Covid aid. Trade data reflects strong growth both in exports and imports. We expect May’s CPI to reach 0.5% m/m on strong seasonali...

The CA surplus increases surprisingly
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Jun 2021

The CA surplus increased in Q121 to 5.85bn USD from 5.5bn in Q420 (sa) and 4.3bn one year ago. The increase of the trade deficit by 0.7bn USD was offset by a similar increase in the service account surplus while the secondary income (transfers) increased by 0.4bn. Many economists had expected a c...

Lieberman moves to cancel government furlough support
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Jun 2021

Politics: The new “change” government was sworn in yesterday. We think this government is a positive development for fiscal policy and stimulating growth. The new Minister of Finance is moving rapidly to cancel all emergency furlough supports for those under age 45. This will support labor partic...

Let’s talk after the summit
TURKEY · Report · 13 Jun 2021

The main story in the politics section is Mr. Erdogan’s visit to Brussels, where he will likely be grilled by EU and NATO leaders, while he finally says hello to old buddy Joe. He is until immense pressure at home at the eve of this historic visit. He and his AKP+MHP alliance are slipping in t...

US search for a base in Central Asia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jun 2021

By September 11, 2021, there will be no more US troops in Afghanistan besides Marines at the embassy. That is Joe Biden's vow. Afghan troops will be trained by the US but not in Afghanistan. The United States has also promised not to abandon its Afghan allies as it did in 1989. How is the US to s...

Russia interest rate raised to 5.5%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jun 2021

On June 11 the Central Bank of Russia hiked the interest rate, as we predicted. The country is grappling with inflation. This has risen faster than CBR foresaw. It was 6% in May 2021: the highest since 2015. CBR said this could ruin the recovery.The RUB has not moved when the interest rate did. C...

​GULF WEEKLY: Strong sukuk demand, Covid up in Oman & Kuwait, Kuwait sees worst GDP contraction
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Jun 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Coronavirus is surging in Oman and Kuwait and, although cases are falling in Bahrain, deaths are extremely high. * US-Iran talks will move to a sixth round, with growing expectations for a deal but probably not before next...

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