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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jun 2021

With the death toll still stubbornly high – 1,800 per day in the 7-day moving average – the second wave of Covid-19 contagion is poised to become the start of a new epidemic cycle. The premature relaxation of the rules on opening in sectors where physical proximity is the norm and the still slugg...

Turkey Covid Watch - June 1, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 01 Jun 2021

Covid cases continued to decline this week, albeit at a slower pace. The new measures were officially announced at a cabinet meeting yesterday, including relaxation of curfews and restrictions on intercity travel. In this installment of our Covid Watch, we also provide some illustrative calculati...

Greater restriction on mobility to stop the advance of the third wave of COVID-19
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Jun 2021

With the advance towards a third wave of Covid-19, yesterday the Government imposed stricter measures to restrict mobility and distancing. During the week of June 2 to June 9, in the National District and in 24 provinces circulation will be restricted from 6:00 pm. at 5:00 am from Monday to Frida...

The pressure for emergency aid and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jun 2021

This week's Thursday holiday means reduced activity in the Legislative branch. The House may announce the creation of a Special Committee to analyze Administrative Reform. Arthur Lira could announce the rapporteur of the bill that creates the CBS tax. In the Senate, the rapporteur of the Eletrobr...

Robust growth without monetary loosening
CHINA · Report · 01 Jun 2021

Growth is stable. Industrial output was up 9.8% y/y in April, and up 14.1% y/y from April 2019, with annualized growth of 6.8% y/y, the same as in Q1, and higher than the pre-pandemic levels in 2018 and 2019. Investment is still weak, and rose 8% y/y from April 2019, with an annualized growth rat...

Hi tech exports continue to support shekel appreciation
ISRAEL · Report · 01 Jun 2021

Hi-tech service exports and investments continue to expand rapidly, supportive of shekel appreciation. Private consumption has rebounded rapidly since the economy opened up.

The "rebound effect" versus the "hysteresis effect": The projections for the economy in 2021 are betting on the former, but we analyze the latter
PANAMA · Report · 01 Jun 2021

The IMF projects 12% real growth for the year, based on three factors: the vaccination rollout, the private investment recovery, and the "rebound effect" after a 17.9 percent drop in economic activity in 2020. Rating agencies and other international analysts are also projecting double-digit growt...

The marriage of the two unicorns
INDONESIA · Report · 01 Jun 2021

Indonesia has seen an interesting story about the merger of two unicorns, Gojek, a ride-hailing start-up, and Tokopedia, a marketplace platform, both of which were "unicorns" before the merger. The merger of the two companies strengthens the technology companies to reach a possible valuation of s...

Q1 GDP sightly stronger by second estimate
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Jun 2021

Q1 GDP was reported by second estimate this morning. At +2% qoq, -1.6% yoy, on sdab basis, it looks somewhat stronger than the preliminary +1.9% qoq, -1.8% yoy.The composition of Q1 GDP was reported for the first time on this occasion. This showed that domestic demand was much weaker than GDP, wi...

Russia to allow flights to UK but prolongs Turkey flight ban
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Jun 2021

On June 1 Moscow announced that flights to and from Austria, Hungary, Morocco, Croatia, Lebanon and Luxembourg shall recommence on June 10. That will bring the number of countries with regular flights to and from Russia up to 36.However, travel restrictons on Turkey and Tanzania shall remain in f...

Rates remain unchanged with a more upbeat tone
ISRAEL · In Brief · 01 Jun 2021

Rates remained on hold yesterday and the announcement was rather upbeat, noting the rapid opening up of the economy while the escalation in violence had only a limited impact on activity. There is a significant increase in private consumption since the opening up of the economy. GDP numbers in Q1...

Covid Watch Postponed
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 May 2021

Dear Colleagues:As we await the outcome of a cabinet meeting that is taking place now, which is expected to announce the new normalization measures and the calendar, we have decided to postpone our Covid Watch to tomorrow.Thank you for your understanding.Murat Ucer/Atilla Yesilada

​Q1 GDP: Some signs of a painful transformation?
TURKEY · Report · 31 May 2021

The Turkish economy grew by a higher than expected 7%, y/y, in the first quarter of 2021, and 1.7%, q/q (Graph 1). The information content of year-on-year data in terms of showing the true state of the economy is especially misleading nowadays, given the strong base effects from last year -- and ...

National Holiday on Thursday, Administrative and Tax reforms in Congress and Dr. Nise Yamaguchi testifies in the COVID CPI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 May 2021

Congress meets on Tuesday to analyze presidential vetoes and reallocation of funds. The Ministry of the Economy is analyzing possible bills for Tax Reform. Arthur Lira creates the Special Committee on Administrative Reform. Defendor of hydroxychloroquine, Dr. Yamaguchi, testifies in the COVID CPI...

EU companies see best prospects for Russia since 2012
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 May 2021

On May 28 the Association of European Businesses (AEB) published its survey. Foreign firms in Russia believe that turbo charged growth will occur. The absence of a second lockdown has been a boon.The Central Bank of Russia says that GDP will return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021.The AE...

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