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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation Report: the CBRT is playing the same game
TURKEY · In Brief · 29 Jul 2021

The economics author is traveling today and will be boarding his flight shortly, so what we have below is first impressions from today’s Inflation Report. If need be, we will follow up with a more detailed analysis.First off, as we have expected, the CBRT revised the yearend forecast upward – bec...

The IMF mission to arrive in September, Kristalina Georgieva says
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Jul 2021

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had a phone call with Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva yesterday on July 28. Kristalina Georgieva recognized “sound economic progress made under the IMF program” and mentioned the IMF mission arriving in September. The President Office ment...

Turkey and Azerbaijan plan to form a combined army
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jul 2021

On July 28 it was announced in the Turkish Parliament that the two neighbors are creating a joint army. A joint military drill is currently ongoing.The two countries speak languages that are almost identical. They have been cooperating closely for 30 years but now they intend to further expand th...

Torpedo
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jul 2021

It’s a puzzle why the government decided to arrest lawmaker Freddy Guevara and harass other Popular Will party (VP) leaders. His actions torpedoed preparations for government–opposition talks to be mediated by Norway. Perhaps the torpedo was aimed at dividing the opposition. Or the government...

Bolsonaro’s statements about the new Bolsa Familia program worry the market, Ciro Nogueira should take office as Chief of Staff today or tomorrow, and Dep. Celso Sabino should submit his report on the income tax bill next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jul 2021

According to the government, Bolsonaro is not actually planning on changing the Bolsa Familia program through a constitutional amendment. Ciro Nogueira’s entry into the government should improve its relationship with Congress and especially the Senate. The broader tax reform PEC in the Senate is ...

Economics: Inflation pressures continue to mount
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jul 2021

Last week’s inflation results for the first half of July showed 12-month consumer inflation at 5.75%, with its core component lagging the headline rate at 4.64%, while non core inflation surged ahead once again at 9.24%. The core component was led higher by a roughly 6% increase in food prices, w...

China’s education crackdown – How far will this go?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 Jul 2021

The new regulatory crackdown on the educational sector in China was a surprising move by China. New Oriental Education’s shares plunged 17.5% on the news. What really is a shock is how small the companies are in this sector – EDU has a market cap of just $6.6 billion. What is going on and how far...

Economic recovery in times of political uncertainty
CHILE · Report · 27 Jul 2021

After falling for two consecutive months, in May the monthly variation of the seasonally-adjusted IMACEC was 2.6%, its largest since September 2020. The economy completely reversed the negative shocks of March and April. The detail by sectors shows diverging movements, underscoring the relevance ...

MNB: Long-term collateralised loans to banks discontinued from today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Jul 2021

MNB vice governor Virág has just spoken on the Bank's YouTube channel. His main points were:- Today's 30 bps base rate increase implies that the 1-week deposit rate will go up by the same amount, i.e. the whole of the rate hike will be made effective. - From today, the MNB is not extending any mo...

Bolsonaro meets with Ciro Nogueira to discuss his role as Chief of Staff, the Pandemic CPI has a busy schedule for next week and the rapporteur of the income tax bill is considering including a tax exemption for companies earing less that R$ 4.8 million
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jul 2021

Ciro Nogueira’s appointment is facing some resistance from Congress and the government. Bolsonaro has reiterated the Centrão’s important role in passing bills. Dep. Luiz Miranda provides a testimony to the Federal Police on the corruption scheme involving the purchase of the Covaxin vaccines. Mem...

Growth may be slower
CHINA · Report · 27 Jul 2021

The Chinese economy has been stably rising in Q2. GDP was up 7.9% y/y, and up 11.4% from Q2 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 5.5%, up 0.5 pps from Q1. Industrial output was up 8.9% y/y, and up 13.7% from Q2 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 6.6% y/y, slightly lower than in Q1 but hig...

MNB raised the base rate and both sides of the interest rate corridor by 30 bps today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Jul 2021

The base rate thus went to 1.2%, and the corridor remains +/- 95 bps around this level. This is a bit more than expected (15-30 bps) by the market, and it is in conformity with the MNB's three-month old commitment to a distinct tightening trend and to a front-loaded approach. The key point must b...

What to expect from the last year of Duterte’s presidency
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Jul 2021

Towards the end of his rambling, close to three-hour State of the Nation Address (SONA) yesterday, President Rodrigo Duterte listed several priority bills that he wanted congress to pass in the final year of his presidency. The proposals were unsurprising and included the three bills to open the ...

2021–2022 Forecast: Slow Recovery
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 27 Jul 2021

With only five percent of Venezuelans fully vaccinated, the country has seen no relief from its rapid daily rate of new Covid-19 cases since the end of March. Non-adherence and lax enforcement of quarantines are allowing retail trade and manufacturing to begin to open up. Groundwork is being laid...

Politics: Pegasus scandal reveals massive espionage in Mexico with no legislative control
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jul 2021

Worldwide, Mexico is the country with the highest level of espionage with Pegasus spyware. The international scandal that broke this past week therefore has had major repercussions in the country since a whopping 30% of all the intercepted communications worldwide -15,000 telephones- correspond t...

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