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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: The fate of 4T is riding on Campaign 2021
MEXICO · Report · 11 Jan 2021

President López Obrador’s 2021 political agenda will have a clear "before and after" straddling the June 6 elections. Until that date his main and perhaps only priority will be to pull off another historical victory at the polls. At a bare minimum that means retaining control over the lower chamb...

Bolsonaro's statements create new controversies and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jan 2021

There are expectations around the possibility of Anvisa's authorizing the emergency of use of CoronaVac. Some legislators are continuing to work for an extraordinary congressional session during the recess. Parties may take sides in the presidential succession races in the House and Senate. Presi...

A perplexing number on the December cash budget deficit
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Jan 2021

No doubt, the Finance Ministry cares to keep analysts busy, which is no reason for a complaint, of course.The monthly cash deficit of the central government for December has just been reported at HUF2251bn, an annualized 57.8% of GDP. No mistake, the figure is correct, and it is definitely an unp...

The macro economy in 2021
INDIA · Report · 11 Jan 2021

The 2021 budget announcement will come on February 1. In this note, we review the overall macroeconomic situation. While vaccines will help reduce fear, India is at the late stage of the epidemic through the onset of herd immunity. Household consumption remains below pre-pandemic levels. I...

Jack Ma, the Party and US-China Relations
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 11 Jan 2021

There have been a number of key political events in China that will have significant impact on the economy, the financial system, and the international investment environment. These include: 1) The rise of the Party in the economy; 2) The postponement of the Ant Group IPO and the subsequent i...

The BoI expects growth of 6.3% this year, assuming rapid vaccination
ISRAEL · Report · 11 Jan 2021

The BoI central forecast sees a rapid recovery following inoculation, with growth reaching 6.3% this year and 5.8% in 2022. Under this scenario, the Governor expects a reassessment of QE in the summer months. The fiscal deficit reached 11.5% in 2020, below initial expectations, on the back of str...

Economics: Banxico Law reform initiative poses major risk
MEXICO · Report · 11 Jan 2021

When the governing Morena party’s Senate leader proposed, and in short order passed in December reforms to the law governing Banco de México the reaction was swift. Private sector analysts, deputy governors at the central bank, the Mexican Bankers Association (ABM), international ratings agencies...

Kyrgyzstan elects president
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Jan 2021

On January 10 it was announced that Sadyr Japarov has been returned to office. He secured almost 80% of the vote. His nearest competitor polled a measly 7%. On the same day the country held a referendum on expanding presidential prerogatives. The expansion of presidential power won by 89% of the ...

The BoI expects growth of 6.3% this year, assuming rapid vaccination
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Jan 2021

HighlightsThe fiscal deficit reached 11.5% GDP in 2020, below expectations.A few months ago, the expectations were for 13%-14% GDP.We have been consistently more optimistic, stressing two drivers: the high-tech service sector and the upside from lack of travel abroad on private consumption. Tax r...

Reform hopes, harsh realities
TURKEY · Report · 10 Jan 2021

Turkish sources herald that the long-advertised “reform package”, including a slew of measures to improve investment environment, could be unveiled by President Erdogan by the end of January. The contents leaked to the press thus far suggest it is going to be a big flop. Yet, let’s stay optimisti...

German state trying to circumvent Nord Stream 2 sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Jan 2021

On January 6 a German state vowed to expedite Nord Stream 2 by using a climate foundation. Mecklenburg West Pomerania will shield companies building the pipeline. The pipeline will come ashore in that state.A foundation to fund ecological projects will be used. The pipeline will be defined as tec...

Russian e-visa scheme temporarily ended
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Jan 2021

On January 8 Moscow announced that its electronic visas will no longer operate until the pandemic is over. 52 countries can take advantage of these e visas. These nations include the EU, China and India. There are fears that North Korea could use them to send laborers to Russia.Most international...

​OMAN: Budget discloses detailed projections until 2025 but takes oil spending off-budget
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Jan 2021 · 3 responses

* The new fiscal projections until 2025 seem to be derived from the existing Tawazun plan. * However, oil expenditure has been taken off-budget and some other minor changes were made. * More detailed disclosures show the budgeted path for subsidy reform and non-oil revenue growth. * The oil as...

Azerbaijan building airport in recovered territory
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jan 2021

On January 5 it was announced that a new airport will be built in Fuzuli. This district was only retaken from Armenia 2 months ago. There remains much demining to be done. The government is keen to keep reminding people of the victory of 2020.The liberated City of Susa is to be the cultural capit...

Serbia starts using Russian vaccine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jan 2021

On January 6 Serbia commenced vaccinating people with Sputnik V. Politicians are the first to receive it even if they are not high risk. The purpose of this is to reassure the public that the vaccine is safe. Belarus is the only other country in Europe using Sputnik. The WHO and the European Medi...

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