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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

More clarity about vaccination and growth prospects for 2021
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jan 2021

It has been widely agreed for a while that economic growth prospcts for 2021 will greatly, if not mainly, depend on the speed and efficiency of Covid vaccination.In this context, the first key piece of domestic news this year is a new statement by PM Orbán that the current lockdown rules will rem...

Rapid vaccination will facilitate economic recovery
ISRAEL · Report · 04 Jan 2021

Rapid vaccination of the population will facilitate economic recovery. Our 2021 GDP growth forecast stands at 3.9% but at 9% y/y in Q421. We do not expect any adjustments to monetary policy today.

Upward revisions of statistics continue
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 04 Jan 2021

At the very end of December, Rosstat published revised GDP statistics for 2018 and 2019. Also, the statistical agency released its first estimate of the 3Q20 GDP by end-use. Previously it was considered that in 2018 and 2019 the Russian GDP increased by 2.5% and 1.3% accordingly. The new numbers ...

Rapid vaccination will facilitate economic recovery
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Jan 2021

Israel has proceeded rapidly with vaccination with over 12% of the population already vaccinated, and half of those 60 or above. Although in the short run, higher infections are likely to lead to more limitations on activity, we expect a rapid recovery commencing in Q221. Our 2021 GDP growth fore...

While we were gone
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2021 · 2 responses

In our first politics commentary of the year, we refrain from making bold predictions, limiting ourselves largely to identifying salient developments and emerging trends since our last report(s). The natural gas pipeline TANAP delivering gas to Europe and a free trade deal with the U.K. headli...

Russian pipeline opens in Serbia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jan 2021 · 1 response

On January 1 the President of Serbia opened the Balkan Stream gas pipeline in his country. A 403 km section of the pipeline passes through Serbia. Russian has and construction companies have been instrumental in the pipeline's completion. Balkan Stream is part of Turkstream. Balkan Stream provide...

Russia extends state control of the media
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jan 2021

On December 31 Putin signed an array of laws empowering the government to restrict or block social and media networks if they ''discriminate'' against Russia. Moscow dislikes Twitter dubbing some Russian outlets ''state affiliated''. Russia therefore perceives this as a discriminatory. Media comp...

New PM and elections in Moldova
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jan 2021

On December 31 Aurel Ciocoi was appointed acting prime minister. President Maia Sandu was sworn into office only on December 23. The outspoken europhile has called for an early parliamentary election. She has also vowed to defeat corruption.Ciocoi served under the previous president who was pro-R...

Russia broadens foreign agent definition
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jan 2021

On December 30 Putin approved a law that labels any politically engaged person or body a foreign agent if they receive funds from abroad. Dissidents have said this is a crackdown on freedom of expression. Media organizations and civic activist associations have often fallen foul of it. In 2012 th...

Azerbaijan starts LNG supplies to EU
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Jan 2021

On December 31 Azeri gas was sent via the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) for the first time. The EU is keen to reduce energy dependence on Russia. TAP is 878 km long and is part of the Southern Gas Corridor.Shah Deniz 2 field in the Caspian is the main source of the gas. Italy, Greece and Bulgaria...

​GULF WEEKLY: Saudi & Qatar Q3 BoP, Dubai budget, Saudi activist sentenced
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 Dec 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Saudi’s Q3 current account returned to a 1.3% of GDP surplus, from a -12% deficit in Q2. * Qatar’s Q3 current deficit narrowed slightly to -7% of GDP as remittances rebou...

Toward the age of the electric vehicle
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Dec 2020

As the year 2020 quickly approaches its end, Indonesia is weighing the prospects for the country’s economy for the near term, as well as for the medium and long term. For the near future, the fight against the pandemic continues, with the prospect of vaccination becoming the biggest hope. The fir...

Russia bans many German officials
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Dec 2020

On December 29 Moscow added more names to the list of German officeholders who are forbidden to enter Russian territory. Russia has not announced the identities of those banned but said they are intelligence officers and defense ministry staff. The EU forbade certain Russian officials from enteri...

Yearend note
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 30 Dec 2020

2020 has zoomed by but before the year closes, we leave our readers with the following charts of an extraordinarily eventful year that will leave its mark on the Philippine economy for the foreseeable future. We wish everyone a healthful new year.Source of basic data: IMFSource of basic data: PSA...

Zelenskiy attempts to remove the Head of the Constitutional court after scandalous records released
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Dec 2020

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy ordered to remove the Head of the Constitutional court Oleksandr Tupytskiy from his position for two months. Mr. Tupytskiy will remain a judge of the Constitutional court but he will not execute his duties for two months, the President Office explains. This move is t...

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