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US closing last consulates in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Dec 2020

On November 19 the US announced that it will close its consulates in Vladivostok and Yekaterinburg. The only US diplomatic mission left in Russia shall be the embassy. The US said the decision was taken for the sake of security.The decision emphasizes how Russo-US relations are at their lowest eb...

US accuses Russia of gigantic cyberattack
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Dec 2020

On December 19 the United States said that Russia had carried out a cyberattack on several government agencies.On December 17 Microsoft said 40 major customers were attacked with malware. This enabled the attackers to gain access to systems. Electric power grids were among the systems exposed. 80...

The IMF starts on-line mission to Ukraine
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Dec 2020

The IMF mission will start first review under current Stand-By Arrangement on Dec 21st, according to Interfax News agency, citing words of the IMF representative in Ukraine Gösta Ljungman. The meetings will be online. They will start next week and will resume in January 2021. Finally, Ukrainian a...

Russian National Guard to assist Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Dec 2020

On December 19 an agreement was signed empowering the Russian National Guard to operate in Belarus. The stated objective is to combat ''terrorism''.In August the two governments contemplated the deployment of the Russian Police to Belarus. Since then the situation seemed to become more placid. Ho...

Two-year sports ban for Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Dec 2020

On December 17 the Court for Arbitration in Sport announced that Russia would be prohibited from taking part in international sports. This two-year ban will prevent Russia from participating in the Tokyo Olympics in the summer of 2021 and the Winter Olympics in 2022.The CAS had initially decided ...

A Positive Scenario "ma non troppo" for 2021
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 18 Dec 2020

For a brief period (2 quarters at most) the pandemic shut down the economy, producing a deep but short recession, but thanks to the strong fiscal expansion the recovery has been rapid. However, Brazil still has no plan for vaccination, and for an extended period it will be necessary to live with ...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi GDP & budget, Dubai recovery signs, new Kuwaiti cabinet
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Dec 2020 · 1 response

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * 2021 oil demand was revised down further, only making up about 60% of the 2020 decline. * Iranian statements were supportive of a deal with Biden but the execution of a jo...

Covid’s second wave has peaked, no veto on the EU budget
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Dec 2020

The Covid restrictions introduced in November seem to be working, even though the health care sector is missing an outright debacle only rather narrowly. But the number of daily new infections peaked in early December and has been decreasing ever since. Improvement is only initial and limited for...

Four predictions for China in 2021
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 18 Dec 2020

We make four predictions for China in 2021: * Weakening of the RMB * Weaker economic conditions * Real deleveraging * Pressure on ​local bonds.

Legislative update
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Dec 2020

Congress adjourns for the Christmas holidays starting tomorrow, having passed not just the P4.5 trillion 2021 budget but measures extending to end-2021 the validity of this year’s budget and the Bayanihan 2 Act. The latter means that government is expected to miss spending targets this year but w...

Putin urges food price cut as economy struggles
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Dec 2020

Putin called upon stores to reduce food prices. Unemployment was up to 6.3% in October. Salaries have been slashed by 5% in 2020.The price of sugar rose 70% from January to November 2020. Other basic foods have seen price rises only a little less drastic.The government has resisted a second lockd...

Demand-side reform and long-term GDP growth
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Dec 2020 · 3 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: * In its meeting last Friday the Politburo coined a new term, "demand-side reform", as something it would implement along with the “supply-side reforms” it has long promised. This is probably going to be a very important policy innovation that finall...

Nobody won
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 16 Dec 2020

Almost simultaneous electoral events organized by the Maduro regime and the democratic opposition revealed two grave trends: voting is no longer an efficient means to express the will of the people in Venezuela, and the population is barely connected to politics and political leadership. Moreover...

Nord Stream 2 construction hampered by technical difficulties
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Dec 2020

Russia is determined to complete the undersea gas pipeline to Germany in 2021. US sanctions have meant that most suitable ships cannot be hired for this.A Russian nuclear powered ship due to take part in the construction cannot participate in the project due to suffering damage. It needs repairs....

Economy rebounds despite political headwinds
PERU · Report · 16 Dec 2020

A month after the mid-November political crisis that led to street protests and the election of the caretaker Francisco Sagasti government, an uneasy truce has held in Congress. While political brinkmanship has continued, confrontation has eased. We will first discuss the positive developments, a...

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