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UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: POLITICAL PASSIONS IN THE...

Budapest Pride march took place without problems on June 28
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Jun 2025 · 1 response

On Saturday, June 28, the annual Pride March of the LGBTQ community took place in Budapest, despite the government's express will and a previously announced police ban on the event. The march attracted between 50-100k participants, making the event the biggest Pride ever, and the second largest s...

A historic week in Turkish politics
TURKEY · Report · 29 Jun 2025 · 1 response

It is cliché, but this is going to be a truly historic week in Turkish politics. On Monday (June 30), an Ankara court will hear arguments from plaintiffs and defendants on whether there was fraud in CHP’s next-to-last grand convention, when Ozgur Ozel replaced Kemal Kilicdaroglu. In bad-case s...

Government downscales growth targets
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jun 2025

The Philippine Government, through the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) a few days ago, reviewed and updated its medium-term macroeconomic assumptions, growth targets and fiscal program for this year and the next two years 2026 and 2027. Given the increased uncertainties and recen...

Gunning for a risk-adjusted Israel-Iran war scenario
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jun 2025

Based on the recent assessment by his economic team, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr was reported to have “downplayed” the expected fallout from the Israel-Iran ballistic war compounded by the US bombing of three nuclear facilities in Iran. Manageable, he said, and “so far, there is no s...

Kazakhstan macro: inflation to decelerate slowly as economy remains overheated
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Jun 2025

Despite various challenges, the Kazakh economy has been performing well in recent years, and 2025 is expected to be another good year as economic growth is reportedly accelerating. Growth remains uneven, but strengthening of the services sector is an important trait of the Kazakh economy. The cou...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil drops and equities rebound as Iran war ends, Oman finalizes personal income tax, Kuwait moves towards bond issuance
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Jun 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Qatar intercepted Iranian missiles and then helped mediate a ceasefire with the US and Israel. * This followed a US strike on Iranian nuclear sites, which caused severe damage. * Trump says there will be renewed nuclear t...

Webinar replay - India’s role in a reconfigured global economy
INDIA · Report · 27 Jun 2025

Can India seize upon the opportunities created by global trade reconfiguration? How will technological developments like AI impact Indian GCCs and services? How will the domestic economic policy environment impact India's outlook? Watch the replay of webinar featuring Economist Dr. Ajay Shah d...

Bracing for impact
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Jun 2025

Costa Rica’s economic activity continues along the path set in our short-term economic outlook (see our report of April 2025), although deceleration now looks more pronounced. To face the effects of the current international turmoil charged with lots of uncertainty, we expect the government to ma...

The government is looking for alternatives to the IOF tax increase, Haddad will give an interview on this topic, and the STF will hold a public hearing on mandatory congressional earmarks
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jun 2025

The government is currently evaluating alternatives following Congress’s decision to overturn the IOF tax increase. According to Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, there are three possible paths: identifying new sources of revenue, challenging the overturning of the decree before the Supreme Feder...

Topic of the week - 2Q25 CCA Slide deck
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 27 Jun 2025

The quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia is a 208-slide detailed description of the economic status-quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as of the second quarter of the year. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structure, in...

The House and Senate approved the overturning of the IOF decree, the House also passed a bill that increases the total number of deputies, and the STF discusses the liability of big tech companies
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jun 2025

Both the Lower House and the Senate have approved a legislative decree overturning President Lula’s executive order that raised the Financial Transactions Tax (IOF)—a symbolic defeat for the administration in Congress that underscores growing dissatisfaction even among allied parties. Yesterday, ...

Economic performance set to stabilize in 2H25
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Jun 2025

Rosstat reported that in May and 5M25, Russian industrial output grew by 1.8% and 1.3% y-o-y. The mining segment contracted by 1.1% and 2.7%, while the manufacturing grew by 4.0% and 4.2% (y-o-y in May alone and 5M25 in both cases). Even though y-o-y numbers looked unimpressive compared to last y...

Shekel strength supported by fundamentals but may reflect short-term overshooting
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Jun 2025

Since the successful military operation against Iran, the shekel has strengthened by nearly 4.5% against the U.S. dollar, reaching its strongest level since the end of 2022. It has also been appreciated by 4.5% against the euro. Chart 1: ILS exchange rate vs USD, EUR, and nominal effective rate T...

Armenia: PM Pashinyan resorts to desperate means to cling to power
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 26 Jun 2025

Pashinyan is getting rid of the opposition. I have spent a lot of time in the last month or so writing about Armenia, and it seems for good reason. The loss in the municipal elections in Gyumri, the rising momentum to impeach Pashinyan, and the PM's ill-fated attack on the Church are a few exampl...

Copom’s odyssey
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Jun 2025

The main purpose of the latest Copom Minutes is to prevent the market from anticipating the beginning of the monetary easing cycle. The concern, naturally, is that market behavior could affect the yield curve and thereby undo part of the monetary tightening promoted by the Central Bank, which bro...