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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Rate stability with a more dovish forward guidance likely this week
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Jul 2020

The highlights of our Weekly Macro Wrap Up 6.7.20Recent data points to a slow recovery as PC growth remains weak:Credit card purchases increased in the last week of June but remains 8% below the level at the beginning of the year.Chain store sales in May are down 16% y/y, while food sales are up....

Russian business dissatisfied with state support
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jul 2020

On July 1 Russia's main business newspaper Kommersant revealed that some of Russia's largest firms have lamented inadequate financial support from the government in the wake of coronavirus. Claiming financial aid is unduly onerous due to excessive form filling. The government listed 1 300 compani...

The Head of the Central bank dismissed: what’s next?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Jul 2020 · 1 response

Yesterday Verkhovna Rada approved resignation of Yakiv Smoliy, the Head of the NBU. 286 MPs – almost constitutional majority – supported the decision. Media wrote the dismissal of Smoliy was a personal whim of Zelenskiy. Allegedly Zelenskiy summoned Smoliy to the President Office and there was a ...

The dispute for the Ministry of Education
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Jul 2020

​The media reported today that President Jair Bolsonaro had defined Paraná´s Secretary of Education, Renato Feder, as the new Minister of Education. Feder was already wanted for the job after Abraham Weintraub left. However, Bolsonaro ended up opting for Professor Carlos Decotelli, who resigne...

CNE: Securing jobs for the regime’s new “best friends”
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 03 Jul 2020

On 1 July, the National Electoral Council (CNE) announced the rules for the 6 December 2020 parliamentary elections. The new system guarantees PSUV a strong majority in the National Assembly (AN) and opens an institutional space for the small parties grouped as the Negotiating Table (MDN) geared ...

India buys Russian warplanes
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jul 2020

On July 2 India announced it is buying 33 Russian-made fighters and is paying for upgrades to 59 Russian-made jets that it already owns. This contract is worth over USD 2.4 billion. The planes are MiGs 29s. 12 Su 30 MKI Russian designed planes will be built in India by agreement with Russia. Indi...

​GULF WEEKLY: Dubai Q1 worse than Saudi, stimuluses extended, Iraq hopes for IMF loan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Jul 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Dubai’s Q1 GDP (-3.5% y/y) was much weaker than Saudi's because of its more open economy. * Oil rose but Angola could be a spoiler to the OPEC+ deal and a Libyan restart is ...

Household debt and the shadow banking market in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 Jul 2020

China’s recovery will depend on the ability of households to continue to consume. However, over the past several years, household debt has climbed steadily. This particularly includes mortgage debt. Meanwhile, investments in shadow banking through Wealth Management Products have remained at high ...

Reality bites, now what?
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2020 · 1 response

Consumer prices rose at a much higher than expected 1.1% in June, with the 12-month rate increasing sharply to 12.6%, from 11.4% in May, versus our forecast of just over 12%. Domestic-PPI inflation was 0.7%, m/m, with the 12-month rate also rising to 6.2% from 5.5% a month ago, reversing the down...

Ukraine postpones Eurobond sale
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jul 2020

On July 2 Ukraine decided to delay its USD 1.75 billion Eurobond sale due to the resignation of the head of the national bank. The government has negotiated with investors about this decision. As a result of these developments the Ukrainian currency fell to its lowest against USD since April 2020...

Bolsonaro tries to minimize wear at the Mercosur Summit
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Jul 2020

During his participation in the virtual summit of the Mercosur, President Jair Bolsonaro made an appeal to the group of leaders to guide their negotiators to make free trade agreements with the European Union (EU) and the Efta (bloc formed by Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein), and l...

A current account surplus during Q1 2020 makes it the first since 2003 for South Africa
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 02 Jul 2020

In a period that has seen a multitude of unpleasant economic numbers, including the contraction of the economy by 2% q/q, data released today by the Reserve Bank shows that South Africa’s current account was in a much healthier state as it recorded a surplus during the first quarter of 2020. The ...

ECQ, GCQ, mGCQ, etc.
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 02 Jul 2020

Late Tuesday night, President Duterte decided to keep Metro Manila under General Community Quarantine (GCQ) for another two weeks. This, notwithstanding a plea from Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez for the country’s capital and the neighboring region of Calabarzon, together accounting for close...

Russian referendum approves constitutional amendments
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jul 2020

On July 2 the result of the referendum was declared 78% in favour of the amendments. This allows President Putin to seek two more terms of 6 years apiece (though it is far from certain he will). It enshrines marriage as only between a man and a woman. It also underscores the supremacy of Russian ...

Head of National Bank of Ukraine resigns
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jul 2020

On July 1 Yakiv Smolii tendered his resignation as head of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU). He said it was because he was being prevented from doing his job effectively. Smolii lamented that the bank's independence is under threat from political pressure. NBU is the country's central bank. Com...

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