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South Africa has limited firepower to mitigate significant economic fallout from COVID-19
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 02 Apr 2020

On top of the public health crisis that is likely to take place in South Africa from the growing COVID-19 threat, the economic fallout is going to be momentous. Even as he announced the 21-day country lockdown, President Ramaphosa acknowledged that the economy was going to suffer because of conta...

Covid-19 in Venezuela: New challenges, old policies
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Apr 2020

Governments and parliaments across the world scramble to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic supporting consumption and easing bank lending. Initiatives and their timing are country-specific, but the overarching goal is to mitigate human suffering and protect the economy in order to allo...

After a controversial video and pressure from Congress, the government announces MP’s aimed at the economy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Apr 2020

After President Jair Bolsonaro changed the tone of his discourse last night, when he acknowledged the seriousness of the pandemic, today he went back to controversy by sharing a week-old video on social media in which a man films an empty food market in Belo Horizonte. In the video, the man says:...

Virus and the Russian economy: making efforts to decouple
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Apr 2020 · 2 responses

As Russia remains on a week-off regime and people are not supposed to leave their homes, the number of Russians who contracted the virus continued to rise at a high rate in recent days, albeit from a relatively low level (given the size of the country). Around 200,000 Russians who had either retu...

Russia allots USD 18 billion to fight coronavirus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Apr 2020

On March 31 Prime Minister Mishustin announced that USD 18 billion has been put aside to spend on COVID-19. Lockdowns in Moscow and St Petersburg have been tightened. In the rest of the country they laxer - though a state of emergency means regions have more power to act, and Moscow is sharing te...

Ukrainian land reform
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Apr 2020

On March 31 the Ukrainian Parliament passed the land market bill. However, it is not as extensive as President Zelensky had wanted. The bill only allows an individual or company to buy parcels of up to 100 hectares at a time. Communal and state land cannot be sold under the new bill. State land i...

Manufacturing PMI at 29.1, EURHUF at 369.4, the MNB announced major tightening
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Apr 2020

The manufacturing PMI for March was announced at 29.1, an unprecedented and extremely big drop from 50.1 in February. This pointed to the fact that currently, close to the whole of the domestic car industry has been closed down, including also tyre producers and the related parts of plastics, met...

​Politics of COVID-19 getting ugly
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Apr 2020

I had resolved to withhold commentary on domestic politics until I see concrete evidence of how the outbreak is affecting its dynamics.There is now some evidence that politics are becoming even more divisive than usual (if you can imagine that) because of Erdogan’s policy announcements and the ra...

Bolsonaro’s controversy with the WHO; the president will sanction emergency aid today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Mar 2020

According to President Jair Bolsonaro during a conversation with journalists on March 31, the director of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom, said that informal workers must work. However, Bolsonaro ended up omitting the passage in which Tedros explains that it is necessary for g...

KUWAIT/OMAN: Moody’s places on review for downgrades
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 Mar 2020

Moody's put Oman and Kuwait on review for downgrades given the drop in oil prices during March, the coronavirus crisis and underlying concerns about governance in both states. We think it is highly likely that Oman will be downgraded, although Kuwait may just avoid it.

Economy is paralyzed after COVID-19 cases skyrocket
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 31 Mar 2020

The Ministry of Public Health reported on March 29th that the number of COVID-19 cases had reached 859, up 140 from the previous day. The case rate has surged, and 39 people have died. Congress has declared a state of emergency, giving the president exceptional powers for 25 days. The governm...

The CBRT gears up for QE
TURKEY · Report · 31 Mar 2020

In the face of rapidly worsening economic activity, the CBRT introduced a new set of measures today, which essentially gives the Bank new ways of providing TL liquidity by way of expanding the size of its government securities portfolio, and the range of securities acceptable as collateral (see i...

China virus check – week ending March 28
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 31 Mar 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) Rising coal use in the power industry and iron ore blast furnace operating rates. 2) Traffic congestion continues its perplexing decline for the second week. 3) Metro rail traffic is growing, but one city we track, Nanjing, showed de...

Keynes vs. Thanos
COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Mar 2020

Coronavirus cases in Colombia have been steadily rising, to 702 as of March 29th. The early rise has been faster than in Italy, Spain or United States – but seems to be moving in tandem with the rest of the region. Government experts have stated that, under a no-measures scenario, Colombia could...

Land market approved, turn for the IMF move
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Mar 2020

A historical day! Late in the night, already on March 31st, parliament voted in a law on the land market. As we wrote yesterday the design of land market has been substantially reshuffled in light of COVID-19 crisis. The market will be launched from July 1st, 2021 (previously, October 2020). From...

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