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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation in March comes in slightly on the upside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Apr 2020

Inflation in March reached 0.4% m/m and zero 0.0% y/y (from 0.1% in February). Market expectations (and ours as well) were at 0.3% m/m. The upward surprise came from the housing rental item, which actually accelerated slightly to 2.3% y/y (from 2.2%, we had expected a moderation to 1.7%). This th...

China virus check – week ending April 11
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Apr 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) Rising coal use in the power industry and iron ore blast furnace operating rates. 2) A slight decline in the growth rate for traffic congestion. 3) Metro rail traffic is rising but one city – Guangzhou – is outpacing others we tra...

Russian coronavirus financial support sluggish
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Apr 2020

Russian banks are rejecting many appeals for financial support from businesses. Government programs allow assistance to such businesses. On April 10 the Governor of the Russian Central Bank (CBR) said that issuance of loans under these scheme was slow. She asked banks to hurry up. 900 companies h...

Bolsonaro and Mandetta
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Apr 2020

The relationship between President Jair Bolsonaro and Health Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta continues to present ups and downs. Even after the last week’s “truce” and Bolsonaro’s more moderate national pronouncement on radio and TV, the president this weekend returned to visit local businesses i...

The new election date is July 5
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 13 Apr 2020

Today, the Central Electoral Board announced the decision to postpone the national elections that were scheduled to take place on Sunday, May 17. The new date is Sunday, July 5 and, if necessary, the second round will be held three weeks later, on July 26. The Constitution orders the new presiden...

Russia’s budget: Stress-testing budget sustainability
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Apr 2020

The reported daily number of contaminated in Russia has continued to grow in the past ten days at a rate of around 15%, posting no clear acceleration. It is becoming increasingly likely that the total number of contaminated may start peaking in a month or so as the spread of the disease has inten...

Covid-19: The main legislative measures total R$ 638 billion
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Apr 2020

The Lower House is trying to reach a deal to vote on emergency aid for states and municipalities and on the provisional measure that deals with labor ("Green and Yellow Contract"). The Senate analyzes the "war budget". By Wednesday, April 15, the government will send the LDO to Congress. The STF ...

Belarus nuclear power station to open
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Apr 2020

On April 12 Belarus announced that a nuclear power station will open in July 2020. The Energy Minister said it will only start generating electricity in September or October. The power station is close to the border with Lithuania. Lithuania strenuously objects to the power station saying it is a...

Budget 2020 revised: state deficit surged to 7% of GDP
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Apr 2020

Parliament has just voted in a revised spending plan 2020. The main changes to new budget are: Revenues’ target cut by 10.9% or UAH 119.7 billion;COVID-19 Fund was created – UAH 64.7 billion or 1.5% of GDP;Initial spending (net of COVID-19 Fund) increased moderately by 1.5%;Revised deficit up to ...

Deep Recession in the World and Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Apr 2020

In the past week the diagnosis has become consolidated that the world is headed toward a deeper recession than that in 2008-2009, and this will be the same path of the Brazilian economy. Despite the irresponsible attitude of President Bolsonaro, Health Minister Mandetta and the state governors ar...

Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 13.4.20
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Apr 2020

With Israel maintaining a nearly completely shut down, the number of unemployment (or forced non-pay vacation) represents 25% of the workforce. Plans are underway to gradually open up the shutdown following the Passover holidays on April 19th. The number of new Covid-19 infections has declined in...

No end in sight to the distress
TURKEY · Report · 12 Apr 2020 · 2 responses

As Turkey’s caseload reached around 52K by Saturday, which may be a significant undercount, we have begun to question the administration’s capacity to suppress the epidemic in a timely manner. Short of an unanticipated decision of an open-ended national curfew, the outbreak is unlikely to peak be...

Kazakh ruling family's UK property declared legal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Apr 2020

A London court has ruled in favor of the Kazakh leader's family on April 8. The Nazarbayev family has over GBP 100 million worth of property in the United Kingdom. Nursultan Nazarbayev has the title 'Leader if the Nation' in Kazakhstan - he retired as president in 2019. The National Crime Agency ...

Russian State buys majority of Sberbank
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Apr 2020

On April 10 the Russian State purchased a majority stake in Sberbank which is the biggest of all banks in Russia. The State bought it from the Russian Central Bank. The deal cost USD 28.5 billion. The price is based on the average share price of Sberbank in March 2020. Almost all the shares have ...

Gulf weekly: OPEC+ forges 10m b/d deal, Qatar & Abu Dhabi issue $17bn
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Apr 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * OPEC+ agrees to 2-years of historic cuts but market is not yet impressed. * Qatar issued $10bn in bonds and Abu Dhabi issued $7bn. Dub...

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