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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Growth slowly recovers
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 30 Dec 2019

Preliminary figures indicate that economic activity has continued to slowly recover. The monthly indicator of economic activity for September and October estimated real GDP growth at 5.1% and 5.2%, respectively (to August, the monthly average was 4.7%). We expect that November and December figure...

Strong service exports are shekel supportive
ISRAEL · In Brief · 29 Dec 2019

Service exports expanded sharply in October by 4.4% m/m (15.3% y/y). Service exports are mostly hi-tech services (software, IT, cyber, etc.).This sector is less sensitive to the global manufacturing slowdown.Service exports are expected to expand by nearly 10% this year.Import prices of consumer ...

Ukraine and Russia exchange prisoners
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Dec 2019

On December 29 Ukraine and Russia announced that all prisoners of war are being exchanged. Ukraine is releasing 87 men and getting back 55. Among those set free are the Ukrainian sailors captured in November 2018. This exchange is the best indication yet that both countries are sincere in their d...

Russian population falling fast
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Dec 2019

On December 28 Rosstat (the Russian Statistics Agency) released forecasts for the next 15 years. There are three alternative demographic projections but all of them show Russia's natural population falling. It just depends how much. In 2019 the Russian population fell for the first time in 10 yea...

How different could 2020 be?
PERU · Report · 27 Dec 2019

The electoral campaign to replace the dissolved Congress seems to have failed to gain momentum. The latest polls find that nearly half of voters haven’t decided who to vote for in the January 26th contest. While some surprises could emerge, the results will most probably favor President Martín Vi...

Ukrainian gas company received disputed payment from Gazprom
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Dec 2019

On December 27 Nafotogaz stated it was paid USD 2.9 billion by Gazprom. This is pursuant to the decision of an arbitration court in Stockholm. Naftogaz agreed to drop a claim for USD 12 billion against Gazprom in return for accepting the other payment. The two companies have signed an agreement t...

$2.9 billion from Gazprom reach Naftogaz account
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Dec 2019

Gazprom has paid $2.9 billion on the Stockholm arbitration, according to Naftogaz Facebook page. The funds might be reflected as part of gross international reserves which now should touch $26 billion level or 4.1 months of imports. According to the IMF guides “external assets that are readily av...

​Gulf weekly: Khashoggi trial concludes, Divided Zone oil restart is agreed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Dec 2019

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. As of today, we are shifting to a Friday publication schedule in an effort to provide swifter coverage than our previous Sunday schedule. Headlines include: * The tria...

Russia rows with Poland and EU
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Dec 2019

In December 2019 the European Parliament passed a resolution denouncing the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. This agreement led to the USSR annexing Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Moldova and some of Poland. Over the past week President Putin hit out at Poland in several public remarks. Putin is irate becau...

Russia takes over former US base in Syria
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Dec 2019

On December 26 a Russian news agency reported that Russian troops had assumed control of a base in Syria that was held by the United States till last week. This is delicious news for the Kremlin. The hasty US withdrawal from Syria is welcomed by Russia in some ways. On the other hand it means Rus...

Russia claims it successfully trialed sovereign internet
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Dec 2019

On December 24 the Ministry of Communications said that Russia trialed its unplugged internet several hours. It claimed that it was so successful that people did not even notice. Experts are sceptical about the trial. Did it really happen at a full scale? People surely would have noticed some sit...

Stick and carrot
ECUADOR · Report · 24 Dec 2019

After the unsettling riots of last October, the Assembly has given stick and carrot to the government. First, a majority of over 70 votes denied the proposed economic bill sent by the Ministry of Finance as urgent at the beginning of November. Albeit there were political motives behind this den...

Wins in Paris, and gas transit – but weirdness marks IMF talks
UKRAINE · Report · 24 Dec 2019

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy surprised everyone with his stronger-than-expected performance at the Normandy summit in Paris December 9th. On the eve of the meeting, social tension in Ukraine had been mounting, with hardly anyone daring to predict how negotiations might go. Street protesters dema...

Uzbek election marred by irregularities
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Dec 2019

On December 22 Uzbekistan held a legislative election. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe noted that there serious doubts about the fairness of the poll and that certain issues were off topic in debates. Nonetheless this election has not been as unfair as the previous ones. ...

Economics: Ending 2019 on a low note
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2019

The economic indicators and news from the final weeks of 2019 added to the general impression of a softening economy, with especially troubling declines in both consumer spending and private investment, even as the retreat in industrial production deepened. Gross fixed investment accelerated its ...

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