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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Cabinet decided today to withdraw a controversial proposal for Constitutional reform and called for a “national debate” sponsored by the UNDP (United Nations).
PANAMA · In Brief · 23 Dec 2019

The reform was a leading campaign issue by all the parties in the recent presidential contest. Cortizo and the PRD party opted for following a long process of modifications established in the Constitution: two approvals by the Legislative Assembly plus a national referendum. The draft of the init...

Politics: Potential democratic institutional demise
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2019

The latest GEA-ISA quarterly survey coincides with all the other polling data published in the past month on the seemingly contradictory phenomenon of President López Obrador's continuing to enjoy strong yet somewhat weaker approval numbers at the same time as the government he presides over gets...

SAUDI: Khashoggi verdict won't mitigate criticisms that are discouraging FDI
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 23 Dec 2019

Sentences were issued today by the Saudi court trying those accused by the public prosecutor of involvement in the October 2018 killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. A brief statement from the public prosecutor said that, of the 11 Saudi nationals put on trial, 5 were sentenced to death fo...

Inflation likely to surprise on the upside in 2020
ISRAEL · Report · 23 Dec 2019

Recent indicators (IP, revenues) point to steady growth in early Q4 2019, unsupportive of lower rates. Residential starts/completions remain fairly strong, supportive of a modest increase in housing/rental prices. We expect inflation to reach 1.2% in the NTM, above market expectations.

2020 growth target likely to be about 6%
CHINA · Report · 23 Dec 2019

The annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) held by top leaders December 10th-12th emphasized “stabilities.” We believe that “around 6%” is the likeliest 2020 growth target. Infrastructure investment was mentioned, suggesting that infrastructure spending will be used to support the economy...

Forecast with a fork
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 23 Dec 2019

We visualize a single base case for 2020 that splits into two scenarios for 2021–2022. In 2020, the Maduro government runs public policy all year, incentivized by the promise of an electoral victory. The policy stance on price setting and exchange rates stays relaxed, although the legal appara...

Gulf weekly: Kuwaiti cabinet, Qatari budget, Qaboos concerns, Aramco stock decline
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Dec 2019

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Aramco joined the MSCI EM Index but its price is down -8.8% from its peak. * Qatar budgets a 1.9% spending increase and is reviving projects like t...

Russia risks damaging relationships over Libyan intervention
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Dec 2019

On December 22 the US expressed is concern over Russian military support for the rebels in Libya. The United States accused Russian mercenaries Wagner of fighting alongside Khalifa Haftar's forces to overthrow the internationally recognized government. Haftar's men are called the Libyan National ...

US sanctions on Russian pipeline alarm Germany
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Dec 2019

On December 20 the US Congress approved further sanctions on Russia. Trump signed the bill. The latest round of sanctions is aimed at the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline. The US 11 billion pipeline is from Russia to Germany passing through Denmark's territorial water. The Germans say the sanctions meddles...

Gas transit deal with Russia: extra hryvnia strengthening looming
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Dec 2019

Ukraine and Russia have reached a deal on gas transit, according to the minutes published at the web-site of the Cabinet. Gazprom will pay $2.9 billion on the Stockholm arbitration. Naftogaz to withdraw any other lawsuits on gas contract 2009. A new 5-years gas transit contract will be signed. In...

Plan to build petrochemical plant in Russian Arctic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Dec 2019

On December 21 it was reported in Vedomosti that Gazprom is planning to construct the world's most northerly petrochemical in Arctic. The plant will produce various types of plastic. The plant will be built on the Yamal Peninsula. This area is where the Bovanenkovo Field is located which is the c...

To lose a lot is to win a little
COLOMBIA · Report · 21 Dec 2019 · 1 response

It was 4:00 am of Friday the 20th, and the House of Representatives was still in session debating the new tax reform, known as the “Ley de Crecimiento”. On Monday, few people believed the reform could be approved by the end of the week. Even more, “extra sessions” were added until the 23rd to get...

Ukraine mulls constitutional reform
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Dec 2019

On December 19 President Zelensky proposed a bill to reform the constitution. He claims the goal is to diffuse power. Regional governors will be replaced by prefects. Prefects will be answerable to the president and not to local councils. A prefect shall serve a single three year term. The smalle...

Will Rebalancing in China Work?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Dec 2019

We have argued in a previous note that the middle class in China is most likely much narrower than much analysis would suggest. This has important ramifications for rebalancing of the economy – a policy announced repeatedly by the Chinese leadership. I decided to analyze the data concerning retai...

Mixed news in the economy… better news in the institutional front
PANAMA · Report · 20 Dec 2019

The general feeling that the economy is doing poorly in terms of economic activity and job creation was supported by the recent data (2.7 percent growth in QIII and 2.9 percent in the year). Therefore, economic growth for 2019 will be lower than in 2018 (3.7 percent). Retail sales, free trade zon...

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