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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: Tourism adds to its economic impact
MEXICO · Report · 16 Dec 2019

At a time when Mexico can do with additional sources of foreign currency inflows, the latest tourism data offers some encouraging news, although it is hard to get that impression at first glance. During the first ten months of 2019 the number of international visitors slipped 1.5% below levels o...

The rise of Rodrigo Maia and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Dec 2019

The week begins with the threat of a truckers’ strike. This is the final week of legislative activity for the year: after the vote on the 2020 Budget, scheduled for Tuesday, Congress enters its end-of-year recess, with activity resuming on February 2. The Lower House will try to conclude the vote...

Despite the low CPI print, we do not expect a rate cut
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Dec 2019

Although inflation in November surprised on the downside, reaching -0.4% m/m and 0.3% y/y, a rate cut is far from certain. The CA surplus is likely to surpass 4% GDP this year and improve further in 2020. Israeli savings institutions sold FX of 1.2bn USD (net) in October and 5bn YTD, supporting s...

China’s schizophrenic stimulus policy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 16 Dec 2019

Recent negative economic data is forcing Beijing to devise creative responses. The responses show a political compromise between the “spenders” (the National Development and Reform Commission, the local provincial governments, and the State Council) against the “savers,” which would include the P...

Despite low CPI print, a rate cut is far from certain
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Dec 2019

November's CPI surprises on the low side Inflation in November reached -0.4% m/m (0.3% y/y), lower than our forecast of -0.3% m/m and market expectations of -0.2% to -0.3%. Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) remained stable at 0.5% y/y similar to last month, but clearly t...

​Gulf weekly: Aramco hits $2trn, Saudi budget unveiled & Qatar dispute thaws
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Dec 2019

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Aramco nominally achieved MBS’s magical $2trn valuation on its second day trading. * The Saudi 2020 budget envisages the deficit rising to 6.4% of ...

Russia cuts key rate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Dec 2019

On December 13 the Russian Central Bank announced that the key rate would be reduced to 6.25%. There have been five cuts in a row. The Governor of the Bank Elvira Nabiullina said that she might not cut the rate next time because there is a limit to how low it is wise to go. The RUB rose by 1% whe...

Future trends, past scribblings
TURKEY · Report · 13 Dec 2019

In this last full report of the year, we have opted for a novel format of sorts. The politics author, being the visionary of the Global Source Partners Turkey team, looks ahead and identifies 11 trends that will change the face of Turkey in the next 11 years. The econ author being the boring, cha...

Russia in Africa: strategic steps
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2019

The Russian Government and Russian state companies are becoming ever more eager to expand their presence in Africa. Arms deals, energy contracts, political expertise and military assistance are all sought by several African countries. What does Russia have to offer these African states? Russia...

Eskom and electricity cuts are once again sabotaging South Africa’s economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Dec 2019

The South African economy is once again being sabotaged by Eskom. This is because on top of the substantial financial burden the state owned entity (SOE) has been placing on the fiscus, Eskom resumed its infamous scheduled power cuts, normally referred to as “load shedding”, in the past week. Wha...

New program contingent on prior actions, the IMF spokesman says
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Dec 2019

Yesterday, on Dec 12 Gerry Rice, Director of the Communications Department of the IMF made an interesting comment on Ukraine at the traditional IMF Press Briefing. He mentioned about prior actions that should be delivered by Ukraine before the Executive Board might approve new program for the cou...

The NBU slashes prime rate by 200 bps down to 13.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Dec 2019

The NBU Board decided to cut prime rate by 200 basic points down to 13.5% from December 13, according to the NBU press-release. Sharp consumer inflation slowdown to +5.1% y/y in November as well as positive news about staff-level agreement with the IMF are behind the decision. More rate cuts are ...

CBRT: Toward single-digit, asap...
TURKEY · Report · 12 Dec 2019

The Monetary Policy Committee reduced its policy rate (one-week repo rate) by 200 bps today, versus a consensus forecast of 150 bps, bringing the cumulative cuts since July to 1200 bps. We are not too surprised because, as we’ve written several times before, the goal here is to get to single-digi...

The December Economic Work Conference
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 11 Dec 2019 · 2 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: It is too early to say for sure, but it looks like the Economic Work Conference for later this month will settle on a GDP growth target of “around 6 percent”, which I interpret to mean 5.8 percent to 6.0 percent. There has been an enormous amount of deb...

Year-end inflation call: 9,000 percent
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Dec 2019

Consumer prices in November accelerated somewhat less than we had forecast, the result of Black Friday discounts at retail outlets and gentler-than-expected bolivar depreciation. Hence, we are revising our November inflation forecast to 34 percent from our earlier projection of 40%. We revise...

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