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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Central Bank braces for an election year
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 03 Feb 2020

The ruling PLD is seen as positioned to win the majority of districts in the February 16th municipal elections, but the opposition PRM is also expected to make a strong showing, with likely victories in some of the country’s largest municipalities. There are unfortunately few surveys available...

Russian GDP slowdown
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Feb 2020

On February 3 the Russian Statistics Agency released news that GDP grew only 1.3% in 2019. In 2018 it was 2.5%. Growth was also low in the previous two years. In 2015 GDP fell due to sanctions.Some experts do not believe the 1.3% growth figure and suspect that the Russian Statistics Agency (Rosst...

Main items on the agenda in February and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Feb 2020

Congressional activity resumes Monday, February 3. The Joint Committee for Tax Reform is one of the main priorities. The STF will discuss a case related to retirement. The Central Bank holds first meeting of the year to decide the benchmark interest rate. This week’s Talking Points • Main ite...

Politics: The social cost of violence and insecurity
MEXICO · Report · 03 Feb 2020

Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s refusal to meet on January 23 with the couple thousand activists and relatives of those who have been forcibly disappeared or are victims of murders committed with impunity who had marched to Mexico City to meet with him was most likely a serious political miscalcula...

A somewhat bigger step to support the forint today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Feb 2020

Today's weekly FX swap tender was the third in a row at which the MNB gave a clear signal that the forint's recent weakness had reached largely the limits of its tolerance. The Bank rejected all bids today, cutting the stock of FX swaps by HUF 130bn, to HUF 2055bn, effective Wednesday. This came ...

CBR Monetary Policy: Potential impact of the coronavirus
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Feb 2020 · 1 response

This Friday, February 7, the Central Bank of Russia will hold its Board of Directors meeting on monetary policy. This meeting has the so-called “anchor” status and will be followed by a press conference with Chairperson Ms. Nabiullina. The continuing disinflation favors another rate cut. However,...

Labor Market: Slow, but steady improvement
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Feb 2020

After a disappointing third quarter, the labor market picked up in the fourth quarter, with net creation of an annualized flow of nearly 2 million formal jobs. Although that growth pace cannot be extrapolated to the coming quarters, there are many evidences that the recovery of the job market wil...

What does the virus response tell us about China’s economic policy?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 Feb 2020

The Chinese government’s response to the virus tells us a lot about how economic policy will play out over the coming decade. Local decisions, blocking information flow, have given way to a mass campaign on a national scale. However, this suggests the opposite of effective policymaking – the Stat...

The labor market remains tight, supportive of rate stability
ISRAEL · Report · 03 Feb 2020

The labor market remains tight, supportive of some wage pressure and rate stability. Consumer confidence has stabilized in recent months following an improvement in recent years. Apparently, January data resulted in a large fiscal surplus, supporting a decline in the deficit/GDP ratio.

Poor inflation print, but unlikely to stop the CBRT
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Feb 2020

Consumer prices rose by a higher-than-expected 1.4% in January, taking the 12-month rate to 12.2%, up from 11.8% a month earlier. Domestic-PPI inflation also rose to a 12-month rate of 8.8%, up from 7.4% in December (Table 1; Graph 1).Comparing contributions with the same month of the previous ye...

Fear
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 Feb 2020

On February 2, as news broke of its first death from the coronavirus, the Philippine government decided to restrict entry of travelers coming from China, Hongkong and Macau. Those covered by the temporary ban include all foreign nationals without permanent resident visas who are either coming in ...

New week, new risks
TURKEY · Report · 02 Feb 2020 · 1 response

Another critical phase is approaching in the seemingly never-ending Syrian War. Assad’s forces captured the second largest town in the war-torn Syrian province, Maraat-al-Numan, possibly readying to lay siege to the capitol Idlib city. Speaking in Ankara, President Erdogan warned that Turkey woul...

SAUDI: Key Themes for the Saudi economy in 2020
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Feb 2020

​Stimulus measures set to fade in 2020 as authorities balance debt sustainability and growth. Saudi's role as a stabilizer in the oil market isn’t likely to change but it will be challenged. Reform agenda is not over but likely taking a pause in 2020 due to high fiscal cost and limited successes.

Fidesz' membership will not be discussed by the EPP Political Assembly early next week
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Feb 2020

The European People's Party's Political Assembly, which is to meet on February 3-4, will not discuss Fidesz' membership in the party family. This was made clear by EPP president Donald Tusk at a meeting of the EPP's parliamentary faction on Wednesday. There is no clear majority within the EPP on ...

​Gulf weekly: Coronavirus hurts oil, Houthis strike Saudi, Trump releases peace plan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 Jan 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * The OPEC+ meeting may be brought forward as oil falls to $56 on coronavirus concerns. * Gulf states gave a muted response to Trump’s Middle East ...

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