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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jul 25
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Brazil Economics databank Jul 15
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Central America databank Jul 31
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Chile databank Jul 17
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Aug 1
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Ecuador databank Jul 22
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Gulf Countries databank Aug 15
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Hungary databank Jul 21
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jul 1
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Aug 14
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Philippines databank Aug 6
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Poland databank Jul 16
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Russia Economics databank Aug 14
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South Africa databank Jul 11
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Turkey databank Aug 11
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Jul 7
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Mystery purchase of Russian sovereign debt
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2020
On January 23 it was reported that an unidentified buyer purchased USD 9 billion of Russian sovereign debt. Almost all bonds due to mature in 2025 were bought by an unnamed buyer. It is believed that the buyer is a Russian company. The purchase did not change the value of the RUB.
Uzbek President says he will co-operate with the EAEU
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2020
On January 24 President Mirziyoyev announced that Uzbekistan would work with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). His reasons were that this would mean lower prices and more markets. Up to 80% of Uzbek trade is either with the EAEU or passes through it. He also wished to improve the lot of Uzbek w...
The government's legislative priorities and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jan 2020 · 1 response
This is the last week of the recess for the National Congress and the Superior Courts. President Jair Bolsonaro returns to Brazil from his trip to India on Tuesday, January 28. The National Treasury and Central Bank release the consolidated public account results for 2019. On Friday, January 31, ...
Economics: An improvised threat to public finance
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jan 2020
The government’s decision to eliminate from the first day of 2020 the Seguro Popular program and establish a centralizing National Health Institute for Wellbeing (Insabi) is being billed as an initial leap forward in the government’s quest to provide greatly expanded public health coverage. But t...
Escalating row between Russia and Japan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Jan 2020
On January 27 Russia expelled an unnamed Japanese journalist accusing him of espionage. Surprisingly this man was arrested in 2019 but is only being expelled now.On January 25 Japan arrested a Japanese SoftBank employee whom they suspect passed trade secrets to the Russians. SoftBank is a telecom...
The MNB moderately tightened liquidity again today, with little impact on EURHUF
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Jan 2020
At today's tender, the MNB tightened HUF liquidity further, apparently with a view to halting the forint's most recent weakening against the euro. As it turned out, in fact a total of HUF 109bn swaps are maturing this week (on Wednesday), and the Bank sold only HUF 59bn of new swaps, reducing the...
Politics: Turning back the clock on reform
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jan 2020 · 1 response
The extensive package of presumed constitutional and legislative reform proposals that began circulating in social media last Tuesday, if it is in fact from the Office of the Attorney General of Mexico (FGR) as presumed, threatens to bring about a major reversal of more than a decade of progress ...
A weaker Real is the “New Normal” of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Jan 2020
What is keeping the Real from appreciating? The answer requires looking not only at the nominal exchange rate, but also the real exchange rate. Since the end of 2011, commodities prices have been generally falling, causing losses in the terms of trade, and the current account deficits have been r...
Growth remains steady, supportive of rate stability
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Jan 2020
The Composite Index of the BoI points to steady growth in line with potential. Other indicators (PC and manufacturing) appear softer, but service exports remain robust. The signal from the BoI is that a rate cut is unlikely as long as growth remains steady and the Fed remains on hold, with FX int...
Trade war-driven uncertainty eases
CHINA · Report · 27 Jan 2020
The United States and China in mid-January reached a "phase one" trade deal, at least easing uncertainty over future U.S.-China trade relations. The agreement will have Beijing purchase an additional $200 billion of U.S. goods and services over the next two years. In exchange, Washington agreed t...
Exit polls augur a very fragmented new Congress
PERU · In Brief · 26 Jan 2020
Preliminary results to complete (until July 2020) the term of dissolved Congress show the that no party will achieve a plurality. These results could favor President Vizcarra. We do not expect the new Congress to adopt significant reforms, let alone, attempt any amendment to the Constitution.Whil...
Growth remains steady, supportive of rate stability, but FX intervention to continue
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Jan 2020
Highlights: The Composite Index of the BoI points to steady growth.This index increased by 0.26% m/m in December, similar to months previous.In Q419 this index increased by 3.2%, in line with long-term growth potential.The MPC sees this as a factor supportive of rate stability, and therefore pref...
Relative calm abroad, confidence crisis at home
TURKEY · Report · 26 Jan 2020
While Chancellor Merkel and President Erdogan disagreed on Libya and East Med drilling rights during her visit to Istanbul, Merkel said Germany is willing to support efforts to build shelters in northern Syria for refugees displaced by fighting in Idlib. Since the Turkish state lender Halkbank...
Der Spiegel claims Fidesz will not be excluded from the EPP in early February
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Jan 2020
The German newspaper claims to have information that the European People's Party's president, Donald Tusk has made clear in his recent telephone conversations that at present, the majority to support the exclusion of Fidesz from the EPP is missing, and so Fidesz will not be expelled from the part...
Mixed messages on ending the Ukraine Conflict
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Jan 2020
The Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko said on January 20 that two new disengagement areas would be created. So far there is only one such disengagement area. There is still firing across the ceasefire line. On January 22 two Ukrainian soldiers were shot one of whom died. The Organization...