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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Consequences of the awakening
CHILE · Report · 24 Jan 2020 · 1 response

The effects of the protest that began on October 18th on the Chilean economy haven’t been as devastating as we’d feared. November’s Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) was positive, given the context. The seasonally adjusted non-mining IMACEC increased 0.9% in monthly terms, after falling...

Gulf weekly: Lebanon government, Saudi bond, MBS/Bezos spat
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Jan 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Lebanon formed a government of technocrats, but it doesn’t yet inspire much confidence. * Saudi issued a $5bn bond. * Allegations have resurface...

Opposition to Putin's constitutional amendments among radicals
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jan 2020

On January 23 Novaya Gazeta, one of Russia's most prominent newspapers, published an open letter by scores of Russia's more radical opposition activists, decrying Putin's attempts to change the constitution. Some deputies in Moscow City Council have stated they are against the proposed amendments...

North Korean workers still in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jan 2020

On January 23 Moscow acknowledged that North Korean laborers are still in Russia past the UN deadline for these workers being expelled. A UN Security Council Resolution voted for by Russia required all these workers to leave by December 22 2019. Moscow said that these workers were not repatriated...

USD 2.5 bn in global bonds allocated in international capital markets
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 23 Jan 2020

The Government of the Dominican Republic placed bonds in the international capital market today for a total amount equivalent to USD 2.5 bn. USD 1.0 bn were in 10-year bonds and at an interest rate of 4.50%, the lowest achieved by the country for a bond of that term, and USD 1.5 bn million were i...

EURHUF 337.50 - a new historic low for the forint
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Jan 2020

Following an uptick earlier this week, as the MNB rejected all bids at its FX tender on Monday, the forint fell to a new historic low against the euro for a short while in early trade today. We see a good chance that the MNB does not like the forint being this weak at a time when it expects headl...

Trade War deal and the income multiplier
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 23 Jan 2020 · 1 response

Despite relatively benign recent economic data, we expect a rising negative impact on China’s economy as a result of the existing tariffs. Exports are likely to continue to decline accordingly due to existing US tariffs on Chinese goods. We anticipate continuing problems for the Chinese economy b...

GDP growth climbs to 6.4% in 4Q19
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Jan 2020

As expected, stronger public spending pushed GDP growth to 6.4% in 4Q19, up from a low of 5.5% in 2Q19 and a downwardly revised 6% growth rate in 3Q19. Both government consumption and public construction grew at double-digit rates, reflecting fierce efforts to catch up on spending held up in 1H19...

Russian Macro: Strong surpluses to weaken, growth to strengthen
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Jan 2020

The federal budget posted a surplus of R1,967 trln or 1.8% of GDP, in line with expectations. Total revenues reached nearly R20.2 trln. Revenue collection was particularly strong in December as non-oil-and-gas revenues increased by around 29% y-o-y, while in 2019 as a whole they were up by 17.4%....

Essential CIS Politics: January 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 22 Jan 2020

• Major changes to the Russian government and constitution are afoot. • Russia is making progress on diversifying its energy export routes. • The Ukraine conflict is de-escalating but permanent peace is uncertain. • Turkmenistan is suffering unrest due to severe economic hardship. • Belarus a...

Cabinet shakeup in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jan 2020

Russia's new PM Mikhail Mishustin has reshaped the cabinet dramatically on January 21. The key posts (foreign affairs, the interior, defense, energy, emergencies and finance) have all retained the same ministers as before. However, Anton Siluanov (Finance Minister) has had his additional office o...

Russia to screen Chinese visitors for Coronavirus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jan 2020

On January 21 Russia announced that it would be screening Chinese tourists and business executives for coronavirus. The disease broke out in Wuhan, China in January 2020. the screening will be conducted in airports. The Russian Health Regulator stated that it wished to prevent the virus from spre...

Prospects positive after a robust 2019
UKRAINE · Forecast · 21 Jan 2020

Despite concerns about doubled elections and the new president’s unusual background, 2019 appeared especially good in economic terms. A $4.9 billion inflow into hryvnia-denominated state bonds; a $2.9 billion payment from Gazprom mandated by the Stockholm arbitration; a 17% strengthening of the ...

Is Congress still committed to structural reforms and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jan 2020

On Monday, January 20, the new pricing table for roadway cargo goes into effect. On Tuesday, President Bolsonaro leads a cabinet team meeting. Minister of the Economy Paulo Guedes participates in the World Economic Forum, in Davos, where he will meet with business representatives. This week's ...

Russia infrastructure projects under budget
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jan 2020

The Ministry of Finance announced on January 19 that 91% of money allocated to national projects was spent by the end of 2019. USD 2.4 billion allocated to be spent in 2019 was carried over into 2020. Putin announced these national projects in 2018 as part of his re-election campaign. The project...

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