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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Monetary tightening is happening at last, slowly, slowly
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jun 2019 · 1 response

The MNB held the stock of its FX swaps unchanged at HUF1725bn yesterday. This was the third weekly tender in a row that the swap stock did not change, following the previous one-and-a-half months of steep reduction.The fact that the reduction of the FX swap stock has been stopped does not mean in...

Pension Reform: First round vote possible before recess
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Jun 2019

The Senate votes on PM 871/19, which attempts to reduce fraud in the INSS, generating R$ 10 billion in savings. In the Lower House, the measure that changes the procedures for provisional measures may be voted upon. The Federal Supreme Court decides on the need for legislative authorization for p...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Jun 2019 · 1 response

Some signs of good sense have started to appear on the political stage. Although it is too soon for celebrations, we hope the recent improvement is not just a series of random events, but instead reflects some learning by the actors involved. The retraction (0.2%) of GDP in the first quarter, wit...

CEOs of embattled Eskom and SAA step down – is it a case of dropping the ball? Or, a Ministerial over reach?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 03 Jun 2019

Following South Africa’s May 8 general elections, Moody’s Ratings Agency published a post-election credit report on the country. It expects government’s debt burden to rise to 65% of GDP by 2023, increasing to more than 70% when taking into account guarantees to the debt-ridden Eskom. This deteri...

Politics: Anti-graft talk yields first charges
MEXICO · Report · 03 Jun 2019

Word of an arrest warrant for a former Pemex official last week sparked speculation that Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s career-long denunciations of graft might yet lead to prosecutions of other major figures in the last government, but political history and Mexican prosecutors’ disappointing reco...

China’s “shadow” shadow banking
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 Jun 2019

We have just completed a two-day visit to Fuzhou, in Fujian Province, to examine local banks, investors, pawnshops and other non-bank institutions in the capital chain. We drew three conclusions: 1) The significant increase in non-bank lending has continued to grow since the original explosion...

EL SALVADOR: New Cabinet Members
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 03 Jun 2019

In our May report we informed about the four first members of the Nayib Bukele’s cabinet, all of them woman. This brief is to update that information as the new staff took office on June 1, 2019. Most of the new ministers were announced on the same first day of the new administration. The initial...

Economics: Economy extends slowing trend
MEXICO · Report · 03 Jun 2019 · 1 response

The May 30 announcement by the president of the United States that it will impose a 5% tariff on all imports from Mexico effective June 5, with the possibility to raise it by an additional 5% each month until it hits 25% October 1, could have additional negative effects on the economy. It is very...

Is the economy recovering?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Jun 2019

​From a technical standpoint, Brazil is not in a recession, and possibly will not enter this phase of the economic cycle in the next quarter, when there should be slight (and mediocre) growth. However, although a double dip is not in sight, the recovery of economic activity is disappointing to sa...

Political instability could rattle fiscal credibility
ISRAEL · Report · 03 Jun 2019

Highlights: Private consumption appears to be slowing modestly. - Credit card purchases are up 6.5% saar in February-April, slowing from 7.6% in the previous three months. - Chain store sales are up 1.0% saar in February-April, following 0.2% in the previous three months. - Ret...

Another ​benign inflation print thanks to food prices, as stickiness continues
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Jun 2019

Consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 1%, m/m, in May (consensus: around 1.3%), with the 12-month rate thus easing to 18.7% from 19.5% in April. Monthly Domestic-PPI inflation was 2.7%, on the back of a weaker lira and higher energy prices, but given last year’s elevated base, the 12-mont...

Just run the executive branch, Mr. President
COLOMBIA · Report · 02 Jun 2019

As in many sports, governments dedicate their energies not only to scoring goals, but to stopping opponents’ attacks.Until May, when President Iván Duque at last began building a congressional coalition, his administration had not followed this principle. Duque lacked a working coalition to help ...

S-400 saga continues
TURKEY · Report · 02 Jun 2019 · 1 response

Amidst a torrent of contradictory news, the only concrete progress in S-400 crisis is a summit between Presidents Erdogan and Trump at the upcoming G-20 meetings at end-June in Osaka, Japan. Yet, we surmise Ankara may be inching towards postponement of delivery. At home, the Istanbul race is l...

Finally, the Ministry of Finance just allocated of USD 2.5 bn in global bonds
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Jun 2019

As most of you probably know, and as we predicted in our last report, this week the Ministry of Finance allocated bonds in the international market for a total amount equivalent to USD 2.5 bn. The amount is USD 250 million above the indicative amount authorized by the 2019 budget law. That means ...

Finance minister Varga spoke about the pleasant part of fiscal plans the other day
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Jun 2019 · 1 response

The government is just about to deliver to parliament the draft budget plan, together with the adjoining tax package, for 2020. Probably on this occasion, finance minister Varga appeared publicly on May 30, announcing 13 measures, including tax cuts and refunds, steps to simplify the tax administ...

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