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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation heads back to 50% m-o-m and more
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 May 2019

We revised down our April inflation estimate to 35 percent from 45 percent in our previous report. The price of the dollar in the parallel market rose by 21 percent, lower than our expected 42 percent, and consumption was weaker than expected for longer than expected. Accumulated inflation for Ja...

Election results (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 May 2019

A reader asked us what are the implications of Monday’s election results which we outlined yesterday. Offhand, we say that they clearly give President Duterte greater control of the legislative agenda moving forward. The hope is that he will use his political capital to more forcefully back up Fi...

ANC announces premier candidates for provinces it will govern
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 14 May 2019

Following its elections win last week, the African National Congress (ANC) party convened a special national executive committee meeting on Monday, May 13, 2019, at which it presented seven of its eight premier candidates for provinces in which it received the majority vote. The premier for one o...

Weak business cycle conditions in the Indian economy
INDIA · In Brief · 14 May 2019

For a few years, there has been a tension between two views of the Indian economy. One view was grounded in the GDP data, and saw high GDP growth rates. Another view was grounded in the firm data, and saw weak performance of firms. Our work on building a `coincident indicator' is a valuable path ...

Russian IT company showing successful IPO on NASDAQ
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 May 2019

Russian IT company Headhunter completed an IPO at NASDAQ last week, showing successful early trading. No Russian company has achieved this since 2013. Headhunter has been assisted by a few US investment banks. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, Bank of America and Merrill Lynch are som...

Expect robust Q1 GDP data tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 May 2019

Analysts expect 5.1% yoy GDP growth by unadjusted data for Q1 to come out from the KSH tomorrow at 9am BUD time. This would be unchanged from Q4 2018 and contrary to everyone's forecast that growth would slow down markedly in Hungary, following the European trend, this year. Even though there hav...

Election results
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 14 May 2019 · 1 response

We had expected candidates allied with President Duterte to take most of the contested Senate seats in yesterday’s mid-term elections but it looks like they are slated to take all 12 seats. And while we did not think that the elections should be taken as a referendum on the President and his poli...

Incoming storm for Pension Reform and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 May 2019

The government may send Congress a plan for the states. In the Lower House, several important provisional measures are on the agenda, such as the measure that reorganizes the structure of the government, and the regulatory framework for sanitation. President Jair Bolsonaro travels to the US. Stud...

High NFPS deficit in the first quarter of 2019: the challenges to Cortizo´s administration
PANAMA · In Brief · 13 May 2019

The net deficit of Q1 was $966 million: 1.4% of projected (by MEF) nominal GDP for the complete year, or around 5% of “adjusted” GDP for the quarter. This figure does not include payments in arrears to contractors (a figure that may be at least 600 million, according to private sources). The prim...

Russian open-ended investments
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 May 2019

In April this year Russia saw a marginal (USD 1.1 million) increase in open-ended investment funds. Interest rates have been dropping, meaning depositing in a bank does not make much sense. The interest rate is currently 7.75% down from 8.25% in 2017. The Russian stock market has rebounded since ...

A tale of two development plans
MEXICO · Report · 13 May 2019

Early in its life, each presidency is required to produce a National Development Plan (NDP) to implement during its six years in office. But the government of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador did something quite different: his government just sent Congress two NDPs, one authored by his finan...

Politics: No clarity from parallel NDPs
MEXICO · Report · 13 May 2019

Since he won election, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has repeatedly, albeit in piecemeal fashion and in more ideological than programmatic terms, outlined the contents of the new political and economic direction he has set for the country as well as his key objectives: a Mexico without co...

The frustrating economic activity and the Central Bank’s reaction function
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 May 2019

Economic activity continues to disappoint, and based on the information available so far, it is perfectly possible that GDP contracted in the first quarter. This has prompted a wave of downward revisions in the growth projections for 2019, to the neighborhood of 1%. Another consequence is the ine...

Business cycle conditions, Jan-Mar 2019
INDIA · Report · 13 May 2019

The best measure of business cycle conditions in India is the coincident indicator, which is a linear combination of well-measured underlying indicators. The coincident indicator deteriorated slightly in Jan-Mar 2019, to +0.8% above trend. The leading indicator gives us a sense of how the coin...

Trade war escalation and shekel appreciation could delay tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 13 May 2019

Recent data has been mixed, but mostly was positive, with consumer confidence moving higher. Data to be released this week: We expect inflation to accelerate to 1.5% y/y (from 1.4%) in April, and GDP growth to be robust in Q1 2019 (nearly 5% saar). Although accelerating inflation and strong growt...

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