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At the shores of Rubicon
TURKEY · Report · 14 Apr 2019

It will take a week or two to find out who the victor is in Istanbul’s hotly-contested and contentious mayoral race, as AKP devised a convoluted appeals scheme. At the end, it comes down to what President Erdogan truly wants and how much independence the supreme electoral body, the High Election ...

Russian Government plan to increase non-fuel exports
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Apr 2019

Finance Minister Siluanov visited the Samsung Electronics Plant in Kaluga Region on April 12. His mission was to assess how the national project for the development of exports is progressing. This plan excludes hydrocarbons since Russia has no difficulty selling those. He was there with bureaucra...

Struggling with stagflation
ARGENTINA · Report · 12 Apr 2019

Macri´s political outlook into the October elections continues to face the challenge of overcoming adverse economic indicators. This is taking place despite the financial support of the IMF, whose USD 10.8bn tranche reached the BCRA reserves this week. The combination of very high inflation and a...

The financialization of the Chinese economy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Apr 2019

The U.S. financial crisis was caused by the excessive “financialization” of the economy. Loans flowing to the residential property market were expanded into derivative products on Wall Street, sold to investors as securities, and funded primarily through short-term sources. The result was a matur...

Overthrow of Sudanese President is bad news for Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Apr 2019

On April 11 the Sudanese Army ousted President Omar Bashir. This military coup is unwelcome news in Moscow because Russia had a good relationship with Bashir. Bashir was one of the few Arab leaders never to have withdrawn recognition from the Assad Government in Syria. He even visited Syria last ...

Navigating amid icebergs
PERU · Forecast · 11 Apr 2019

We expect more modest growth in Q1, after a robust Q4 2018. Nor does Q2 look very promising, especially should the blockade of the road impeding Las Bambas mega copper mine operations persist. Las Bambas represents 20% of Peruvian copper production, and its paralysis could affect 1% of monthly GD...

Reviving South Africa’s governance institutions in the face of political headwinds
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 11 Apr 2019

There is a myriad of challenges facing President Ramaphosa in the lead-up to the May general elections, both as president of the country and even more as president of the governing political party, the African National Congress (ANC). The infighting within the ANC, well documented in our previous...

Fresh Polls: Zelenskiy Leads
UKRAINE · In Brief · 11 Apr 2019

GB: Brexit is the greatest prank of the decade! UA: Hold my beer Yesterday journalists and bloggers close to President Poroshenko sadly discussed in social media fresh polls from Razumkov Center. The official release of the numbers is expected to be today. However, since the info leaked through p...

Ex-president Pedro Pablo Kuczynski jailed
PERU · In Brief · 10 Apr 2019

Today a judge ordered the preliminary detention of the ex-president for a 10-day period after a prosecutor began investigating him on money laundering charges related to the financial services that his Miami based firm performed in two infrastructure projects (the Interoceanic Highway and the Olm...

Medina gets his way with the new Supreme Court, at a cost
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 10 Apr 2019

Last week the National Council of the Judiciary (NCJ) selected the new Thursdays that will be part of the Supreme Court of Justice. The CNM had the responsibility of selecting (or ratifying in its posts) 12 judges, out of a total of 16 judges that make up the court. Of the 12, only 3 were ratifie...

CBR worried about growing personal debt
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Apr 2019

The first deputy of the Bank of Russia (CBR) has voiced her fear that excessive personal and company debt is holding the economy back. Ksenia Yudaeva said that the issue seems to be a permanent one and exacerbating social problems. In 2015 many salaries were slashed due to a sharp economic contra...

Depression mitigates hyperinflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Apr 2019

Depression is the price Venezuela is paying to slow down inflation. The government has focused on stabilizing the price of the dollar in the parallel market by using a reserve requirement policy that suffocates banks, freezes bank credit and paralyzes economic activity in order to mitigate inflat...

Zelenskiy Reports First 10 Steps at the Presidential Post
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Apr 2019

Media released a list of first 10 steps Volodymyr Zelenskiy plans to deliver immediately after becoming the president. It’s a first reasonable message Ukrainian voters received from the presidential candidate. Names of potential candidates for the position of General Prosecutor and the Head of th...

Kazakhstan calls early presidential election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2019

Tokayev was only inaugurated last month as acting president. On April 9 he announced a snap election will be held on June 9. The election was due to be held in April 2020. Why is he bringing it forward? He is capitalizing on his honeymoon with the public. Election have been brought forward before...

​Istanbul race, S-400 quarrel to go into extra innings
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Apr 2019

A legal arm-wrestling between AKP and CHP continues unabated in Istanbul, as – so far—CHP getting the better of the deal.Turkey’s supreme election body High Election Council (HEC) appears to be adopting a middle-of-the road approach to opposing briefs by parties and demands for recounts, but ever...