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Vizcarra's new cabinet
PERU · In Brief · 11 Mar 2019

A new cabinet was sworn in today after Premier Villanueva’s resignation.The new Premier is Salvador del Solar, who was Minister of Culture during Pedro Pablo Kuczynski’s tenure. Mr del Solar is an actor and film director, and is also a lawyer who studied international relations in the US. Seven n...

Pemex accelerates its fall in 4Q2018
MEXICO · Report · 11 Mar 2019

Pemex’s fourth quarter results surpassed the worst fears as to how quickly the company is being driven operationally and financially into the ground, pulling public finance along with it. Following decades in which the government treated the oil company as a cash cow with which to plug budget hol...

Pension Reform negotiation tools and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Mar 2019

The CCJ should be installed in the Lower House, the first step for Pension Reform. Lower House President Rodrigo Maia meets with party leaders to define a voting agenda for the semester. Economy Minister Paulo Guedes speaks to the Senate about the Pension Reform proposal. President Bolsonaro meet...

When, and under what conditions, can the SELIC rate be reduced?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Mar 2019

In face of the an extremely slow cyclical recovery and inflation below the target, soon enough we will hear clamors for a new monetary easing cycle. Curiously, there is clear evidence that the current SELIC rate is already providing a good dose of monetary stimulus. As we showed in our report of ...

Politics: AMLO squares off against CSOs
MEXICO · Report · 11 Mar 2019

President López Obrador’s decision to promote a 2019 budget that halved the funds earmarked for the government’s Childcare Facility Program, which benefits well over 300,000 children from low income households, sparked considerable concern. But the apprehension grew when he decided this year to a...

In recession, of a balance sheet kind
TURKEY · Report · 11 Mar 2019

The Turkish GDP contracted by 2.4%, q/q, in Q4, after a 1.6% contraction in Q3 (revised down from 1.1% previously), broadly in line with expectations, which also means that by the widely-accepted popular and technical definition of recession (of two consecutive quarters of sequential decline), th...

Business cycle conditions
INDIA · Report · 11 Mar 2019

The conventional GDP data shows a recovery in late 2017. However, the Indian GDP data became less reliable with the methodology change in 2015, which applies to the series from 2012 onwards. We assess business cycle conditions through three pathways. We have constructed a “coincident indicator...

Slow recovery and the impulse from the Pension Reform
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 11 Mar 2019 · 1 response

In the projections formulated here we assume that a pension reform near the original version proposed by Minister Guedes will be approved, creating the necessary conditions, in the second half of the year, for the Central Bank to administer an additional monetary stimulus dose, cutting the SELIC ...

Steady CA surplus (2.9% of GDP in 2018) and strong FDI are shekel positive
ISRAEL · Report · 11 Mar 2019

The CA surplus reached 11bn USD (2.9% of GDP) in 2018 and net FDI an additional 4.2%: macro fundamentals remain shekel positive. Israeli saving institutions reversed their demand for FX demand and sold 1.7bn USD in January 2019. The fiscal deficit surprised on the upside in February, reaching 3.5...

Venezuela – the Russia connection
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 10 Mar 2019

After the dismantling of the Soviet Union, Moscow largely neglected Latin America. Two events were key to changing the situation, namely, the international response to Russia’s occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in 2008; and to the Russian annexation of Crimea and support for Donbass rebels...

Disinflation and depression
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Mar 2019 · 1 response

At the time this report was ready for distribution on Thursday, March 7, a blackout paralyzed Venezuela and is still ongoing. We don’t know yet the extent of the damage, when the supply of electricity will stabilize, and what the new normal will be. It’s too early to assess the damage. The bla...

Election campaign runs into S-400s
TURKEY · Report · 10 Mar 2019

Turkey and the US stepped towards the ring once again, with Pentagon issuing a final warning to Ankara that the purchase of S-400s is a sanctionable act. Ankara doesn’t take the threat seriously, hoping that Trump will intervene at the last second. Turkey’s relations with the West has taken a tur...

Russia seeks private investment in the Arctic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Mar 2019

Russia's special representative on Far East Development (Yuri Trutnev) announced that he is in favor of finding new investment regimes to open access to the Artic shelf's oil and gas fields. The Arctic shelf was once estimated to have up to 67% of the oil and gas in Russia's Arctic. At the moment...

February inflation data sends a clear message to the MNB
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Mar 2019

The recent uptrend of consumer inflation continued by all existing measures, and it even accelerated, in February. The direction was widely expected but the pace was not. Headline CPI-inflation was 0.6% mom, which pushed the yoy rate back up to 3.1%, following the 2.7% figures recorded in both of...

Prime Minister Cesar Villanueva Resigns
PERU · In Brief · 08 Mar 2019

President Martin Vizcarra accepted the resignation of the president of the council of ministers (also referred to as Premier or Prime Minister) Cesar Villanueva this afternoon. It is rumored that his resignation was prompted by Minister of Finance Carlos Oliva's disagreement on the way that a tru...

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