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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

41% of Brazilians rate Lula’s administration poorly, the STF should analyze the indictment against Bolsonaro for the alleged attempted coup on March 25, and Congress may approve the 2025 Federal Budget next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Mar 2025

An Ipsos-Ipec poll released yesterday shows that President Lula’s (PT) administration is considered bad or very bad by 41% of Brazilians. According to the polling institute, the negative ratings (bad or very bad) has increased by seven percentage points compared to the December poll. The presiden...

Reflections on economic growth: dynamics and risks
PHILIPPINES · Report · 14 Mar 2025

At end-January 2024, the Philippines’ statistical authority announced that the country’s economy expanded by 5.6%, just a tad higher than the 5.5% growth in 2023. Growth was propelled by financial and insurance activities up 8.5 percent; construction up 7.8 percent; and wholesale and retail trade...

Growth reportedly soared in February – economic surprise or statistical puzzle?
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 Mar 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported in February that the short-term indicator (that captures activity in industry, agriculture, construction, transportation/warehousing, communications, and trade) soared as in 2M25, it grew by 7.3% y-o-y. In January, it was up by 4.5 y-o-y, followed by a s...

Topic of the week - 1Q2025 CCA Slide deck
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 14 Mar 2025

The quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia is a 216-slide detailed description of the economic status-quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as of the first quarter of the year. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structure, inf...

A Provisional Measure was published addressing payroll-deductible credit for private sector workers, the government requested changes to the Annual Budget Law, and the Camex may meet to approve import tax changes on some foods
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Mar 2025

Yesterday, a Provisional Measure was published addressing payroll-deductible credit for private sector workers. On March 21, workers will be able to access the Digital Work Card app and request credit proposals from government-approved financial institutions. Yesterday, the federal government req...

Revised balance of payments statistics shed some light on recent FX trends and budget revenues
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Mar 2025

The Central Bank just published its flash estimate of the key constituencies of the balance of payments for 2M25 and revised data for 4Q24. The revisions appeared quite significant, and the CBR referred to some updated foreign trade statistics it recently collected. We recently mentioned on sever...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Mar 2025

The Russian market remains positive, assuming the possibility of a peace settlement in Ukraine. The latter encouraged investors to bet on further strengthening of the ruble, and it went from R/$89 to R/$85 after the start of negotiations between the US and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia. However, other ...

South Africa’s Budget 2025 finally presented after a GNU stalemate—yet it remains contested
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Mar 2025

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivered Budget 2025 yesterday, which was also the first budget under the relatively new Government of National Unity (GNU). The significant shift in South Africa’s political administration has been most evident in the events leading up to this year’s budget ann...

Construction declines slowed real GDP growth
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 12 Mar 2025

Economic activity recorded a significant slowdown in January. The y/y real GDP monthly growth rate was only 2.2%, less than half of the 5% average observed in 2024. The main explanation was the -7.3% contraction of the construction sector. Monthly inflation in February stood at 0.32%, while th...

One more president putting himself to shame
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 12 Mar 2025 · 5 responses

In Colombia, it is a presidential prerogative to incur in unforced errors precisely when they hurt the most. Namely, convoke a referendum or a plebiscite as a last resort to avoid losing face, and end up in the worst scenario of failing to get the referendum or plebiscite approved, losing face an...

Sequels of a surprise revocation
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 12 Mar 2025

The unexpected revocation of General License 41 through General License 41a with only 30 days granted for winding down has turned what was already looking like a tough year into a decidedly awful one. The country will suffer a 24-percent drop ($4 billion) in oil exports in 2025, followed by anoth...

Lula will launch payroll-deductible loans for the private sector today, the government is looking for funding sources for other programs, and Lula meets with Pacheco to discuss ministerial reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Mar 2025

President Lula will attend an event this today at the Planalto Palace to launch payroll-deductible loans for the private sector. The new private payroll-deductible loan program will deduct installment payments directly from employees' paychecks using eSocial, the government system on which compan...

Inflation rose further in February: an administrative ceiling comes on retail trade margins for a set of basic food items
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Mar 2025

Headline CPI-inflation in February was reported at 0.8% mom, 5.6% yoy this morning, the latter up from 5.5% yoy in January. Core inflation looked bad as well, at 0.6% mom, 6.2% yoy, the latter up from 5.8% in January. Non-fuel inflation, which we estimate from the official KSH data, was 0.9% mom,...

Gleisi Hoffman gave her first speech as Minister of Institutional Relations, the government’s legislative agenda does not have many points of contention, and congressional leaders will meet to discuss the 2025 Budget
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Mar 2025

All eyes were focused on Gleisi Hoffmann’s first speech as the Minister of Institutional Relations. As president of the Workers’ Party (PT), Gleisi had previously adopted a highly critical stance toward various agendas advocated by the economic team. When looking at the government’s announced age...

Economics: Clock ticking on Trump’s rolling tariff deadlines as Mexico’s trade with China could become a new source of pressure
MEXICO · Report · 11 Mar 2025

Although Trump decided at the beginning of March to pause his blanket 25% tariffs for another month, there remains a high probability that the steel and aluminum tariffs that Washington has planned to go into effect this Wednesday, March 12, will materialize. Meanwhile, there remains the threat t...

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