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Syria erupts, everyone frets
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Mar 2025 · 1 response

In the brief time span of 72 hours, Western Syria erupted in horrendous violence, with a free for all between Assad loyalists, Alawites, Sunnis and HTS and loosely affiliated radical jihadis, as the death toll reached a reported 1K by late Sunday. While sketchy news flow from cities like Latakia ...

Chilean presidential elections: Tohá in, Bachelet out
CHILE · In Brief · 09 Mar 2025

With the end of the antipodean summer comes the start of the school year in Chile. The days get shorter, traffic gets worse, and presidential candidates begin to position themselves. While on the center-right Evelyn Matthei has been a fairly official candidate – and has been leading in the polls ...

A quick econ update
TURKEY · Report · 09 Mar 2025

Manufacturing PMI edged up slightly in February, but corroborated the ongoing stagnation in the manufacturing sector overall. Turkstat’s seasonally-adjusted numbers for February inflation suggest, improvements notwithstanding, the road ahead for the CBRT will most likely be rather bumpy. Meanw...

PM Orbán vetoed in the European Council: will this be consequential?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Mar 2025

On March 6, the European Council held a 'special' (extraordinary) summit meeting, in preparation for the regular summit set for March 20-21. The Council did not make any decision on this occasion, but it published a set of conclusions on two subjects: a €800bn plan to rearm Europe, and EU policie...

Lower growth; higher risk
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Mar 2025

GDP growth in the last quarter of 2024 came out below expectations. Although a certain slowdown was already anticipated, in ligt of high-frequency data previously released, output expansion in the period reached only 0.2%, compared to an average forecast of around 0.4% and very close to the lower...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ affirms taper, Aramco cuts dividends, UAE fiscal surplus, Bahraini budget considers tax hikes
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Mar 2025 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude touched a 4-year low of $68 on OPEC+ taper and Trump tariffs. * Kazakhstan recommitted to overproduction compensation; Iraq failed to restart northern exports. * PMIs mainly eased but remained strong in UAE an...

CBRT reserve estimates: a technical note
TURKEY · Report · 07 Mar 2025 · 2 responses

If there is one macro indicator that needs to be watched very closely in Turkey’s disinflation journey and to gauge the (economic) sustainability of the “program” more broadly, that’s the CBRT reserves.

VP Alckmin announced that import tariffs on some foods will be eliminated, the PT will meet to decide on their next party president, and the 2025 Budget may be put to a vote next week or the following week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Mar 2025

Yesterday, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) announced that import tariffs will be eliminated for meat, coffee, corn, sugar, olive oil, sunflower oil, sardines, cookies, and pasta. The measure was announced following an inter ministerial meeting and is intended to lower food prices. Today, the...

Israeli geopolitics: stability holds in Lebanon, but Gaza uncertainty and political tensions mount
ISRAEL · Report · 07 Mar 2025

1. Gaza ceasefire in jeopardy – The expiration of the first phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire on March 1 has made a return to war increasingly likely, as progress toward a second phase remains stalled. 2. Israel’s stance – Israel supports extending prisoner-hostage exchanges and humanitarian...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Two good pieces of macro news for Uzbekistan
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 Mar 2025

A key macro risk for Uzbekistan has been the transition into a net gas importer status in 2023. The external gap in trading natural gas worsened significantly in 2024 as the country continued to suffer from declining gas production. Still, overall trade dynamics improved last year as higher gas...

South Africa’s current account deficit eases as trade surplus grows in 2024
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Mar 2025

Data released by the South African Reserve Bank indicates that the deficit on South Africa’s current account narrowed from R55.6 billion in the third quarter to R31.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. As a ratio of GDP, the current account thus narrowed to a deficit of 0.4% in the fourth qua...

Industry further down, retail sales further up: nothing changed in January
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Mar 2025

In January, industrial output grew by 0.8% mom, but it fell by 3.9% yoy, the latter after -7.8% yoy in December and -4.3% yoy in the whole of Q4 2024, all in seasonally and day-adjusted volume terms. The moderate uptick in January could be somewhat promising, even if not exactly the jump start of...

More evidence on growth deceleration in January, but questions remain
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Mar 2025

In addition to recently published industrial statistics that hinted at the possibility of a sudden deceleration of economic growth, Rosstat recently provided more color on the matter. According to the statistical service, the output of the five basic sectors (B5 represents industry, agriculture, ...

NBU raises prime rate to 15.5% amid high inflation, depreciation pressures, and growing tensions with U.S.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Mar 2025

The NBU Board has predictably raised the prime rate for the third time, increasing it by 1.0 ppt to 15.5%, effective March 7. Additionally, the NBU adjusted the 'working' rates for the banking system by 1 ppt. On top of that, it widened the spread by 1.0 ppt between the prime rate and the three-m...

Another 250 bps cut, more in store
TURKEY · Report · 06 Mar 2025

The MPC/CBRT reduced the policy rate (one-week repo) by another 250 bps today, in line with expectations, including ours, to 42.5%. In terms of the content of the statement (link here), there was not a whole lot new. The statement began by noting that “the underlying trend of inflation decreas...

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