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MPC conveys a hawkish tone with rate hike forecast in Q418
ISRAEL · Report · 23 Apr 2018

The PMI was up 1.1 points in March to 54.7 on strong export growth. The BoI rate hold decision was expected, but we note a somewhat hawkish tone in the announcement. Zoom in: If inflation expectations spike this summer on higher year-over-year inflation, the possibility of early tightening ca...

How They Stand Ahead of Debate
MEXICO · In Brief · 22 Apr 2018

To date, the most significant take-away from opinion polls is that Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), presidential candidate of the coalition Together We Will Make History, is the frontrunner. While the polls differ significantly on how much of a lead AMLO enjoys (8 to 23 percentage points) over...

Sixty days of nail-biting suspense
TURKEY · Report · 22 Apr 2018

Our coverage of early elections scene starts by answering FAQs, such as whether Gul will run, the Good Party will be allowed to contest the race, and the mechanics of large-scale fraud. We then move on to the polls, which reveal AKP-MHP clinging to a narrowing lead in the parliamentary elections....

Election time is over, but the show goes on
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Apr 2018

Less than two weeks after the parliamentary election of April 8, the streets of Budapest saw the second big demonstration since the vote against the Fidesz government today. There were roughly 30k participants at todays's action and even more one week ago, which counts as quite a big crowd in Hun...

Sudden attacks rattle an inexperienced government
ECUADOR · Forecast · 20 Apr 2018 · 3 responses

For the last 40 years, Ecuador is fortunate to have been virtually untouched by the terrorism plaguing neighbors Colombia and Peru. Now that’s abruptly changed: over the past month, four soldiers were killed, three journalists were kidnapped and executed, and a young tourist couple was kidnapped,...

It turns out 2017 wasn’t so bad after all for South Africa
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 20 Apr 2018

Summary and Assumptions • South Africa’s Growth: GDP growth for 2017 as a whole came in at 1.3%, following the trough of 0.6% in 2016. Seasonally adjusted GDP in the last quarter of 2017 increased by 3.1%, and this was the third consecutive positive quarterly growth rate following the second and...

Higher-than-expected inflation is weakening the support for inflation targeting
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 20 Apr 2018 · 1 response

The rate of inflation in the first quarter of 2018 has deviated significantly from the targets set by the Central Bank and the forecasts of most private consultants, ourselves included. The deviation was particularly large in March, and the online price indicator suggests that it will be even lar...

Notes from Beijing: Tighter control of the banks
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Apr 2018

After a week in Beijing we learned that the shift to new regulatory management, coupled with solidification of Xi Jinping’s power, is resulting in tighter control of China’s banks. There is a systematic effort to reduce reliance on off-balance sheet credit obligations in the banks that is working...

A (tenuous) sign of opposition unity
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 19 Apr 2018

On April 17, the National Assembly (AN) approved a criminal investigation against Nicolás Maduro for corruption cases stemming from Odebrecht’s activities in Venezuela, upon request by the Supreme Court of Justice "in exile"[1] and former Attorney General Luisa Ortega Díaz. The decision was appro...

A change in leadership brings calm
PERU · Report · 19 Apr 2018

Amid an untenable political situation, President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski resigned on March 21st, thereby avoiding certain ouster via a painful and politically damaging impeachment process. It would have been impossible for him to stay on another 3 ½ years, given soured relations between the Executi...

​Snap elections: Good for Turkey, good for Erdogan
TURKEY · In Brief · 18 Apr 2018 · 1 response

Erdogan-Bahceli meeting yielded snap elections, and I really mean “snap” elections, because the proposed date was brought forward from 26 August to 24 June. Early elections are good for Erdogan and Turkey, because both could have suffered a road accident, had they been delayed to 2019. My poll-of...

Fidesz restored two-thirds majority
HUNGARY · Forecast · 17 Apr 2018

The parliamentary election held on April 8 brought about almost exactly the same result as the previous one did in 2014. Fidesz once again won with a big lead, narrowly restoring its two-thirds constitutional majority, which it lost in an interim election held in early 2015. Participation in the ...

​Crucial summit between Erdogan and Bahceli scheduled for Wednesday
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Apr 2018 · 2 responses

I promised to write a market brief about early elections, but instead of responding to Bahceli’s call, Erdogan invited him for a summit at 13:30 on Wednesday. I still believe the leaders will agree on early elections, but want to keep my powder dry until then. I also insist that a decision for sn...

​HEADS UP: Bahceli calls for early elections
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Apr 2018

MHP leader and AKP’s election ally Mr. Bahceli just called for early elections on 26th of August. First reaction from experts:Probably he had consulted AKP before talking to his parliamentary caucus about this. The announcement is market negative but I believe barring major TL-related accidents, ...

Datafolha’s messages and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Apr 2018

Three important issues are on the STF’s agenda: The 1st Group decides whether to accept complaint against Aécio Neves, the court decides on the habeas corpus petition by Paulo Maluf, and Minister Marco Aurélio may bring to the floor the PEN’s request on conviction in the second instance. On Tuesd...

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