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Another poll confirms Lula’s decline in popularity, the Minister of Health will be replaced, and the Ministry of Labor announced a provisional measure on accessing FGTS funds
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Feb 2025 · 2 responses

Another public opinion poll released yesterday confirmed the decline in President Lula’s popularity. According to CNT/MDA, disapproval of the government has reached its worst level since January 2023. Yesterday, the dismissal of Health Minister Nísia Trindade was confirmed. She will be replaced b...

No surprise from the last Monetary Council rate-setting meeting chaired by outgoing governor Matolcsy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Feb 2025

As governor Matolcsy is set to leave the MNB on March 3, today's was the last regular monthly rate-setting meeting chaired by him in the Monetary Council. There was absolutely no surprise caused by the Council on this occasion: the base rate was kept at 6.5%, the interest rate corridor at 5.5-7.5...

Lula announced more payments from the Pé de Meia educational program, he will meet with the Minister of Labor to discuss the FGTS payments, and the Federal Budget should be put to a vote on March 11
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Feb 2025

Yesterday, President Lula delivered a nationwide address on radio and TV to announce two measures. The first is that today, a payment of R$ 1,000 from the Pé de Meia program will be made. This is a financial-educational incentive program aimed at students enrolled in public high schools. Today, L...

Trump’s quick fixes hit a wall
UKRAINE · Report · 25 Feb 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump appears disappointed and irritated that his fast-track approach to brokering a Russia-Ukraine peace deal has stalled from the start. It’s evident that the new U.S. administration lacks a strategic plan for countering Russian aggression. Instead, the strategy seems to i...

Economics: Even as core prices show little movement, inflation continues to trend lower but could reverse course in the medium term
MEXICO · Report · 25 Feb 2025

In January, inflation broke well over a full percentage point below readings of a year prior. This is the latest sign of a clear downward trend that has largely been the result of the deceleration of non-core inflation’s agricultural products component, which has registered significant decreases....

Senate Committees pose challenges to the government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Feb 2025

This is the week before Carnival, with reduced activities in Brasília. The main event is the conciliation meeting led by the Supreme Federal Court (STF) regarding parliamentary fund transfers. The Lower House may vote on a complementary bill (PLP) that restores outstanding payments from 2019 that...

Bank of Israel holds rate at 4.5%, maintains hawkish stance
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Feb 2025

The central bank of Israel kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.5% on February 24th, citing elevated inflation (3.8%) and a tight labor market. While the decision was widely anticipated, the central bank adopted a hawkish stance, emphasizing persistent inflation risks driven by geopoli...

Time is the master of reason
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Feb 2025

The appreciation of the Brazilian real at the beginning of 2025, close to 7.6%, partially reversed the exchange rate depreciation process observed throughout last year, which had intensified in December. This movement at the beginning of the year followed the weakening of the U.S. dollar in t...

Politics: Corruption in Morena and the 4T
MEXICO · Report · 24 Feb 2025

Despite the fight against corruption's being the central plank of Morena and the Fourth Transformation, as well as the center of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s narrative, the reality has been quite different. In Transparency International’s recently released Corruption Perception Index 2024, which...

Two bills may be put to a vote in the House, Justice Dino will hold a conciliation meeting this week on parliamentary fund transfers, and a cabinet reshuffle remains on the radar
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Feb 2025

In the Lower House, some important bills are on the agenda. Two bills aimed at facilitating small business exports may be put to a vote: PL No. 4,043/24, which reduces taxes for small exporters, and PLP No. 167/24, which simplifies the refund process for taxes already paid on exported products fo...

Jittery politics, jittery reserves
TURKEY · Report · 23 Feb 2025 · 2 responses

On Friday, the stock market experienced a selling frenzy, largely driven by rumors of Treasury and Finance Minister Simsek’s ouster, or replacement by Mr. Berat Albayrak. The politics author spent the weekend investigating these rumors, concluding they are not credible at all. On the other han...

PM Orbán announced new social policy measures yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Feb 2025 · 1 response

It seems the governing party's campaign for next April's election is already running at full steam. At least, this is the lesson conveyed by PM Orbán's annual evaluation speech (similar to the US president's state of the union speech) held yesterday. On politics, Mr. Orbán saw a "breakthrough" in...

Cautious optimism after the shock
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Feb 2025

The results of the first round of the presidential election came as a shock to many Ecuadorians—especially Noboa, his party, and supporters who, based on the polls, expected a win in this round. Not only was the close vote atypical of a first round (only 22,000 votes separated Noboa from Gonzalez...

Kazakhstan macro: Various factors are pushing the tenge off equilibrium again
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 Feb 2025 · 1 response

In our previous reports, we have repeatedly mentioned that an excessively strong tenge was one of the main reasons for the poor flow of the exchange rate-related taxes on various levels of the country’s budgetary system, including the National Fund. As the tenge weakened in December and remained ...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi hosts US-Russia talks and Trump at FII Miami, Qatar issues $3bn bonds and will graduate from the EMBI, HSBC exits Bahrain
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Feb 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The first 2.5km section of The Line is planned to have 60 times the area of the Burj Khalifa and 200k residents. * New forecasts for the Saudi deficit this year include -2.7% of GDP (SNB) and -3.8% (Fitch). * Saudi Arabia...

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