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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

How is investment faring?
INDIA · Report · 12 Apr 2017

Micro data about investment is reliable and is released immediately after the end of a quarter. Hence, we are now able to observe the Jan-Mar 2017 quarter. This is the first macro data release for the Jan-Mar 2017 quarter. The broad picture of a stalling of aggregate nominal investment under imp...

Inflation risk from rice policy?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 12 Apr 2017

Many economic watchers have raised concerns about recent increases in consumer prices. From below 2% in the 16 months to August 2016, the headline inflation rate climbed past 3% in February and March 2017, with the BSP expecting the uptrend to continue through 3Q17, when inflation is forecast to...

Last words before the referendum
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Apr 2017 · 1 response

First, I’ll be a holding a conference call with Global Source Partners audience Wednesday afternoon 10 am U.S. Eastern Standard Time, I encourage all readers to participate to receive a broader update and commentary on today’s developments. (Pls consult our New York head office for details). We w...

Week of April 10
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Apr 2017 · 2 responses

A shorter week in Brasília due to the Friday holiday. The Central Bank meets this week to set the benchmark interest rate (Selic); another reduction is expected. In the Lower House, the floor may vote on the Fiscal Recovery Plan for States. The rapporteur of Labor Reform should present his report...

More of political complications: big street demonstration on the CEU case
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Apr 2017

The biggest street demonstration since the Fidesz government started in 2010 took place in Budapest yesterday, with 50-80 thousand participants (depending which side you are asking). Demonstrators, mainly, but far not exclusively university students and other young intellectuals, protested a most...

Stronger Exchange Rate, Lower Inflation and Renewed Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Apr 2017

If Brazil had an economy open to trade and its firms were indebted in local currency, deprecation of the exchange rate during a recession would stimulate demand and expand GDP. But Brazil’s economy is closed to international trade, and its companies, besides being highly leveraged, have a large p...

The Slow Recovery of the Construction Sector
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Apr 2017

Signs are slowly starting to appear that the country is emerging from the longest and deepest recession in the past 35 years. However, the recovery will be slow, and one of the main reasons for this forecast is the deleveraging process of firms and households. The civil construction sector is emb...

Head of Ukraine's Central bank resigns
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Apr 2017

The Head of the National bank of Ukraine Valeria Hontareva resigns today. She did not mention who will be her successor. Observers mention Volodymyr Lavrenchuk (Chairman of the Board of Aval bank) and Roman Shpek (Head of Independent Bank Association of Ukraine) as the most probable candidates fo...

Monetary Policy Rate increase
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 09 Apr 2017

A few days ago the Central Bank announced an increase of 25 basis points in its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), from 5.50% to 5.75%. Likewise, it increased the rate for short-term deposits from 4.00% to 4.25% and that of repos from 7.00% to 7.25%. Although the increase was small, this is the second i...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 09 Apr 2017 · 1 response

With only seven days left to the polls, “the expert opinion” heralds YES camp gaining momentum. Our updated poll-of-polls still reveal a very tight race. AKP will probably win because it dominates the electoral system, but readers ought to be ready for Sunday night surprises. We look for clues...

RBI tries to manage surplus liquidity in India's banking system
INDIA · In Brief · 08 Apr 2017

The Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI unanimously voted to leave the policy rate -- the repo rate unchanged. At the same time the Monetary Policy Rate Corridor was narrowed by the RBI management to +/- 25 bps (from +/-50), thereby raising the reverse repo rate. This would allow RBI to suck out...

Social Unrest and Uncertainty Continues
ECUADOR · In Brief · 07 Apr 2017

We are still waiting for official GDP data and economic information for Q4 2016. This information should have been published by March 31st, and was not. Also, the fiscal web page from the Ministry of Finance is not active. Although we have given our estimates in past reports and we do not expect ...

Inflation doesn’t budge despite recession
VENEZUELA · Report · 07 Apr 2017

We forecast a stable monthly and annual inflation rate in April at 14.4% month on month (14.6% in March) and 585.3% year on year (585.4% in March).

Peso appreciation is worrying the government but not the Central Bank
ARGENTINA · Report · 07 Apr 2017

Inflation seems stuck at monthly rates slightly above the target set by the Central Bank, and the economic recovery still appears fragile. Kirchnerist opposition to the government has taken advantage of the social discontent to promote riots, strikes and street blockades in Buenos Aires and other...

Costa Rica: Increase in policy rate
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 07 Apr 2017

The Board of the Central Bank increased its monetary policy rate yesterday, from 1.75% to 2.25%. It was the first change since January 2016, when the rate went down from 2.25% to 1.75%. The Board considered the movement as a preventive one, as inflation had increased in recent months (1.36% in th...

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