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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

What is the Current Stage of the Economic Cycle?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 May 2017

When the economy enters a steep recession, like in 2015, all the indicators decline at the same time, but when the GDP ceases to decline, some sectors and products start growing again while others only show stability or even continuing contraction. All signs are that the cycle of shrinking GDP ha...

The next Governor of the central bank is....
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 08 May 2017

Pres Duterte tonight named BSP Deputy Governor Nestor Espenilla to succeed Governor Amando Tetangco as head of the BSP. We think this is market positive and augers well for the economy. It also confirms what we have always said, i.e., in matters concerning the economy, the President listens to hi...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 07 May 2017

Today’s Weekly Update starts with a report from the Frankfurt Global EM conference organized by Toronto Dominion Securities and Global Source Partners, where interest in Turkey was buoyant, yet risks were underestimated, in our opinion. On the political front, at home, AKP officials deny rumor...

Stronger industry, weaker retail sales in Q1
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 May 2017

Following a year of 'positive stagnation' (+0.6%) in 2016, industrial output rose by 9.5% yoy in March and by 6.2% yoy in Q1 2017. This appears to be caused by the strengthening European economy, as Hungarian industrial output is moving (at last) in line with Euro Area manufacturing PMI:Sources: ...

Review of key issues: Economic activity, Canal, and the Pacific Alliance
PANAMA · Report · 05 May 2017

The Monthly Index of Economic Activity expanded 5.5% y/y in February, and 5.2% from January to February, the highest growth since April 2015. We expect real GDP to increase by around 5.3% in Q1 2017. Most indicators showed that the highest early-year growth revolved around Panama Canal expansion,...

Better foreign financial conditions may slow the pace of reforms
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 05 May 2017

Contrary to what we expected in January, the perception of a high risk of a sudden stop in foreign financing before the end of Macri’s first presidential term is being downplayed in the official circles. As a consequence, the economic authorities are not compelled to prepare a plan to speed up th...

Wages go up but inflation wins the battle
VENEZUELA · Report · 05 May 2017

On May 1 the monthly minimum income for private sector workers rose by 35 percent (+ 120 percent YTD) reaching 200,000 bolivars, the number the government is using for propaganda purposes. Real income in May is 37 percent lower than a year ago. President Maduro only announced the May 1 raise. ...

“You wanted elections? Here you have your elections!"
VENEZUELA · Report · 05 May 2017 · 2 responses

Those were Maduro’s derisive words when presenting his decree calling for a National Constituent Assembly to the National Electoral Council on May 4. Maduro seeks to escape pressures by creating a new political legitimacy that will allow him and his group to remain in power. Since he is unable...

Growing Anti-Corruption Movement Pressures the President
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 04 May 2017 · 1 response

The anti-corruption movement known as the Green March is growing in size and strength, and the government is feeling the heat. Protestors are demanding that investigations accelerate, and have accused the Attorney General of negligence, bias and taking orders from President Danilo Medina and his ...

The Road to November 2019
TURKEY · Presentation · 04 May 2017

Turkey will retain its current policy settings through the November 2019 general elections. Theoretically, Erdogan could initiate a substantive change in course, but in practice, he faces insurmountable challenges. Trend growth appears to be slowing due to lack of reform, lack of inflows, too mu...

The State of the Economy
INDIA · Presentation · 04 May 2017

Microdata on firms show reason for optimism, but there is concern about credit stress, and the banking crisis continues unabated. On monetary policy, we are still in the early days of the inflation-targeting framework, and the RBI has yet to feel the difficulties of meeting an inflation target.

The Narrow Bridge to 2018
BRAZIL POLITICS · Presentation · 04 May 2017

Brazil’s politics are showing substantial upside, including the strongest coalition government since FHC 1, a strong economic team and progress on the reform agenda. However, challenges remain: the Car Wash investigation continues to impact politics and business, and economic recovery has been sl...

Credit Expansion, Interest Rates and the RMB: China’s Policy Choices
CHINA FINANCIAL · Presentation · 04 May 2017

Although first quarter data was seen by many as confirming the new optimism, it does no such thing. The increase in Total Social Funding (a wide and more accurate measure of credit used by the PBOC) was higher than expected. The way in which China’s debt burden is resolved is key to its adjustmen...

An Economy threatened by Protectionism and Uncertainty
MEXICO · Presentation · 04 May 2017

Mexico’s economic perspectives have improved compared to the start of the year, but uncertainty remains high. US protectionism is a real threat, although markets can compensate for the negative effects. Private consumption seems to be holding in early 2017, but some decelerating factors will inte...

Policy Uncertainty Derailing SA Economic Recovery
SOUTH AFRICA · Presentation · 04 May 2017

The SA economy is afflicted by structural blockages as well as high political and policy uncertainty. A climate of low confidence for business and consumers is undermining future growth prospects. Currency volatility presents a major upside risk to the inflation outlook; the Reserve Bank is now l...

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