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Trump Plans Could Hit Migration and FDI
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Nov 2016

Uncertainty over the potential impact of President-elect Donald Trump’s economic decisions is high. If Trump makes good on his campaign promises, Central America will be negatively affected on several fronts. The main areas relate to migration, remittances, trade and foreign direct investment. ...

Trump-Inspired Damage is Unlikely
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 29 Nov 2016

Despite uncertainties surrounding the policies of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, we don’t expect the effects on the Dominican economy to be dramatic, over either the short or the medium term. Expansionary fiscal policies aimed at strengthening U.S. infrastructure could boost demand and attrac...

The Country of Not Enough
COLOMBIA · Report · 29 Nov 2016 · 1 response

The end of 2016 will be characterized by not enough growth, a tax reform likely to deliver less than what is needed, monetary policy that has yet to bring inflation down, and a peace deal that may not be enough to bring peace. That is why Colombia, yet making efforts in all these fronts, seems to...

External and Internal Driven Volatility
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Nov 2016

In concert with other emerging-market countries, the Indonesian economy underwent a bit of volatility after the election of Donald Trump as the new President of the United States. However, in the Indonesian context, volatility was also influenced by internal politics after the November 4, 2016 de...

Week of November 28
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Nov 2016 · 1 response

A busy week in Brasília: The government will face an important test in the Senate with the vote on the Federal Spending Amendment, scheduled for Tuesday, November 29. The end of re-elections is also on the voting agenda. In the Lower House, congressmen are seeking an agreement regarding the set ...

How Intense will the Monetary Easing Cycle be?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Nov 2016

To gauge the intensity of the interest rate cut, the Central Bank will observe three sets of information, regarding: a) inflation and economic activity; b) approval of fiscal adjustment measures; and c) the effects of “external shocks” that alter the trend of the exchange rate. In the past 45 day...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 27 Nov 2016

After a fighter jet believed to be operated by Assad’s loyalists bombed Turkish forces in Syria, the prospect of a PYD/YPG-Turkey-Assad conflict has risen substantially. Syria is now our top political risk. The European Parliament resolved to freeze Turkish accession temporarily. EU leaders a...

The Reserve Bank Ends the Year with the Repo Rate Unchanged at 7%
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Nov 2016

As we had predicted after the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) previous meeting, the latter has once again decided to keep the benchmark interest rate, i.e. the repo rate, at 7%; effectively leaving the prime lending rate at 10.5%. Today’s decision came despite th...

CBRT Acts, But Will It Suffice?
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Nov 2016

The CBRT/MPC hiked the weekly-repo and O/N lending rates by 50 and 25 bps, respectively, at today’s meeting, to 8% and 8.5%, leaving the O/N borrowing rate unchanged at 7.25% (Graph 1). The move is certainly better than nothing and somewhat better than the consensus, and also shows that the Bank ...

Trump Introduces Uncertainties
CHINA · Report · 24 Nov 2016

Economic growth was relatively stable in October. Fixed asset investment was up 9% y/y, a 2 pp rise from Q3. Industrial output was up 6.1% y/y, and its growth rates have been very stable, with volatility of only around 0.3 pps. But electricity production rose 8% y/y, a record high for many years,...

Politics: How Best to Answer Donald Trump's threats
MEXICO · Report · 24 Nov 2016

The two axes –economic integration and shared security— upon which in recent decades a complex and profound relationship of collaboration and trust between Mexico and the United States was built is about to be upended and potentially demolished by the aggressive measures president elect Donald T...

Economics: Inadequate Response Plan - Signals
MEXICO · Report · 24 Nov 2016

The election of Republican Nominee Donald Trump as President of the United States has highlighted the existence of structural vulnerabilities in the Mexican economy that have been exacerbated in recent months. In this context, it is important to analyze the various variables that have deteriorat...

Agreement reached on wages, social security tax
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Nov 2016

The government reached an agreement with representative organizations of employers and with trade unions on the next two years' measures regarding the social contribution tax (SCT) and minimum wages. According to this, the SCT - which employers pay on top of gross wages - will be cut to 22% from ...

Dialogue
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Nov 2016

The second round of internationally-mediated talks ended on November 12 produced a roadmap that could help restore constitutional order but the path towards regime change is longer than the opposition wants. The opposition’s leadership paid a high cost by accepting the mediator’s proposal to post...

Unemployment Rises in the Third Quarter of 2016
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Nov 2016

​Statistics South Africa’s Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), conducted during July to September 2016 (Q3:2016), shows that the unemployment rate increased to 27.1%, up from 26.6% for Q2:2016 and 26.7 for Q1:2016. See Graph 1. The slight quarter-on-quarter increase in the unemployment rate was...

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