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Economy Still Slogging through Winter
CHILE · Report · 16 Nov 2016

Donald Trump's presidential victory will make an impact around the world, including in Chile. Some effects are already being felt: copper prices rose, evidently on expectations of a U.S. construction boom. Other effects are subtler. Trump's influence may extend to politics, as Chile historically ...

U.S. Elections and Venezuela
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 15 Nov 2016

Trade between Venezuela and the U.S. has evolved normally despite diplomatic ups and downs. U.S. companies operating in Venezuela haven’t faced problems. This is unlikely to change with President Trump. Both governments have also held relatively fluid conversations throughout the Venezuelan polit...

Peace All Over Again
COLOMBIA · Report · 15 Nov 2016 · 1 response

Against all odds, the Government presented a New Peace Agreement with FARC on Sunday the 13th of November. This agreement is an attempt to include the opposition’s comments to the agreement, after the plebiscite to legitimize such agreement was defeated on October 2nd. Such a defeat, while politi...

GDP in Q3 far weaker than the official forecast
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Nov 2016

This morning, the first estimate of GDP data for Q3 came out at +2% yoy on unadjusted basis and +0.2% qoq, +1.4% yoy on sdab basis. This is rather close to the Portfolio.hu analyst consensus of +2.1% yoy for the unadjusted data, but very far off the +3.6% yoy forecast given by the MNB in its Sept...

Who is afraid of Donald Trump? (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 Nov 2016

Summarized below is our assessment of risks for the Philippines under a Trump presidency. The most immediate impact will be on migration and remittances. Latest government data show that there are some 270,000 Filipinos working in the U.S. who are not properly documented (plus about 129,000 there...

Cautious Celebration
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 14 Nov 2016

Donald Trump’s victory is seen as a chance to improve relations Trump’s victory in the US Presidential election came as a somewhat pleasant surprise for the Kremlin, but there is no solidified position regarding what it might mean for Moscow. Shortly before the election, Russia’s leadership wa...

Week of November 14
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Nov 2016

A short week due to the Tuesday holiday: On Monday, an interview with President Michel Temer will air on the Roda Viva program. The Senate floor begins the first of five sessions to discuss the Federal Spending Amendment. In the House, urgency for the bill on the securitization of government debt...

A Week After USA Election: Impact on the Peruvian Economy
PERU · In Brief · 14 Nov 2016

Clearly the main concern relates on the effect of possible implementation of policies on the global economy. A unilateral action on trade tariffs and non-tariff barriers could bring about unfathomable global repercussions. We reckon that the effects on trade with Peru would be very limited. Trade...

How might a Trump administration affect China?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 14 Nov 2016

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The ouster of Lou Jiwei nearly two weeks ago as Minister of Finance was a surprise, but probably will not result in a less urgent policy towards debt management. • There is no reason to be impressed with aggressive debt-reduction plans, however. As ...

Hoping We’ve Touched Bottom
CHINA · Forecast · 14 Nov 2016

GDP was up 6.7% y/y in Q3, maintaining the growth rate of Q1 and Q2. Rapid auto industry expansion and the steady real estate boom were the two main factors driving growth. Fixed asset investment excluding agriculture was up 7% y/y, down 1.2 pps from Q2. Industrial output was up 6.1% y/y, likewi...

The Trump Effect
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Nov 2016

Although it is too soon for a precise evaluation, Donald Trump’s election in the United States has altered the scenario for emerging markets. The bet on greater fiscal stimulus and an increase in infrastructure investments has changed the forecasts regarding elevation of the interest rate and att...

Inflation accelerates again
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Nov 2016

As we predicted, inflation is accelerating owing to three factors: The surge in the price of the dollar in the parallel market since October, with a 40 percent increase MOM; strong monetary expansion since August with year-on-year rates rising to 127 percent in the first week of November, a recor...

Week of November 13
TURKEY · Report · 13 Nov 2016

New political risks are cropping up each day. Thanks to an emerging deal between AKP and MHP, a presidential referendum is now very likely to take place in the spring. It is not clear whether an Erdogan victory or defeat is the “good case” scenario for Turkey. It is not yet possible to draw fi...

“Demonetisation” : The impact of removing 500 and 1000 rupee notes
INDIA · Report · 11 Nov 2016

The demonetisation of the Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes in a sudden and dramatic move by the government is a significant negative monetary shock to India’s economy, particularly the informal sector. The cash economy in India is about 30 to 40 percent of the economy and well integrated with the formal ...

​Who is afraid of Donald Trump?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Nov 2016

Among ASEAN economies, the Philippines has been tagged as the most at risk from a Trump presidency. Those raising concerns zero in on Mr. Trump’s protectionist bent and espoused policy to discourage outsourcing, as well as his call for stricter enforcement of immigration laws. These, they argue, ...

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