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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 13 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 16
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA: FISCAL PRESSURES AND POLITICAL SHIFTS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Election Monitor V: The national elections - The birth pangs and excitement of a “True Democratic Election” process
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 Jun 2024
On June 14, South Africa witnessed the excitement, the anxieties and the uncertainties inherent in a national election in which the results have no outright winner. For thirty years, the national elections were fair and transparent, yet the results were largely predictable, and the inauguration o...
Economic growth decelerates in May: more evidence
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Jun 2024
The Bureau of National Statistics continued to publish its May economic statistics, and the most recent revelations confirm that the country’s economic growth gradually decelerates, albeit from high 2023 numbers, so that the 2023 growth looks not too bad. Today, the Bureau announced that in 5M24,...
A surprising decline in airline fares moderates inflation
ISRAEL · Report · 17 Jun 2024
1. Inflation in May surprised sharply on the downside due to a sharp unexpected decline in airline fares. 2. We expect inflation to reach 3.1% the coming year due to an expansionary fiscal policy, tight labor market and higher rental prices. 3. Despite May’s low CPI, a possible rate reducti...
Analysts expect only 25bps base rate cut tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Jun 2024
Ten out of twelve analysts surveyed by Portfolio.hu are saying now that the Monetary Council is likely to reduce the monthly base rate cut to 25 bps at tomorrow's rate-setting meeting. The remaining two are saying that a 50 bps cut is still more likely. Until 2-3 weeks ago, the predominant analys...
Inflation surprises sharply on the downside, but is expected to accelerate going forward
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Jun 2024
Geopolitics: Israel continues its offensive in Rafah and missiles/drones continue to penetrate Israel from Hezbollah in the North, at generally a more intense level. Gantz announced his resignation from the government last Sunday. There appears to be little progress in reaching a cease-fire with ...
Putin offers ceasefire with Ukraine if Ukraine retreats from 4 regions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Jun 2024
On June 14 Putin said the ceasefire would start today if Kyiv accepted his demands. Russia annexed 5 regions of Ukraine. It totally controls Crimea but only partly controls the other 4. If Ukraine withdraws from the remainder of these 4 regions that it currently controls, Moscow will stop fightin...
NBU cuts prime rate to 13.0% amid increased confidence in financial inflows
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Jun 2024
The NBU Board cut the prime rate once more by 0.5 ppts to 13.0%, effective June 14. This marks the third prime rate cut since the start of the year and the seventh decrease since July 2023, when the NBU began its easing cycle. In a press release, the NBU cited still-low inflation (+0.6% m/m and 3...
Electricity tariff adjustments and CPI impact
CHILE · In Brief · 14 Jun 2024 · 1 response
After the social unrest at the end of 2019, electricity rates to households were frozen. This freeze has resulted in a shortfall for the electricity companies of approx. $6 billion. Since October 2019, the electricity CPI has only increased by 1.8%, contrasting with the 25.8% rise in the headline...
G7 announces loan for Ukraine and interest from frozen Russian assets to be used for Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Jun 2024
On June 13 Biden and Zelensky signed a 10-year security agreement. Zelensky said this will lead to Ukrainian membership of NATO. However, that is far from sure. The agreement covers arms supply and production. Biden said 5 countries have promised to provide Ukraine with more Patriot air defense s...
GULF WEEKLY: Oil rises but demand forecasts diverge, Qatar and Bahrain appoint ambassadors, Saudi and Kuwait GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Jun 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude rebounded to about $83, above its level before the recent OPEC+ meeting. * The gap between IEA and OPEC demand forecasts widened to 1.3m b/d this year and 5.6m in 2029. * There was confusion about the position...
GDP grew by 5.4% y-o-y in 1Q24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Jun 2024
Rosstat reported that the Russian GDP grew by 5.4% y-o-y in 1Q24. The agency published just statistics on the production side. Statistics by end-use will appear later. The published figure appeared generally in line with our forecast as we expected GDP to expand by 4.0% (a bit faster looks also p...
The economy slowed through April while Mulino builds his team with pro-market figures. We discuss the Mulino-Martinelli relation and its implications. The July election of the new Legislative Directorate is key for reforms.
PANAMA · Report · 14 Jun 2024
First quarter data, as well as data from April, indicate that exports and total investment fell, while consumption and imports increased. The IMAE showed a decrease of 2.1% in March and YoY cumulative growth of 0.04% in the first quarter. We forecast 2% real growth for the remaining quarters and ...
Balance of payments looks stable
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Jun 2024
The Russian Central Bank published its flash estimate of the 5M24 balance of payments, and it looks as though its trends remain sustainable. In 5M24, the current account surplus reached $38.1 bln. It accounted for $5.1 bln in May alone, i.e., slightly lower than in April ($7.1 bln). Exports in Ma...
Government with near-absolute power embraces reform
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 14 Jun 2024
President Luis Abinader in the May 19th elections not only managed to win reelection with 57.5% of the vote, but his PRM party also achieved the necessary control in Congress to pass pending economic reforms, without the need to negotiate with the opposition -- including majority for a constitu...
Rate cut still difficult to price in without a cease-fire
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Jun 2024
Sharp downward inflation surprise in May It is rare we see such a below-expectations inflation print. Inflation came in at 0.2% m/m (consensus in Israel was 0.5%-0.7%, we were at the high end), holding steady at 2.8% y/y similar to last month. The main “culprit” for this surprise was flights abro...