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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A tight race
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Dec 2015

In recent days, three pollsters, seen generally as independent and trustworthy, published the results of their December surveys on voter preferences for the next President of the country. There are notable differences in the numbers especially in the one done by Pulse Asia, where VP Jejomar Binay...

MPC: On a Wing and a Prayer
TURKEY · Report · 22 Dec 2015

The Monetary Policy Committee surprised markets today – us, too, though we had not completely ruled out such an outcome – by not changing any of the rates (see chart). This is a pretty disappointing move that is hard to explain, other than, of course, by political motives. Otherwise, why would th...

Correa The Chess Player
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Dec 2015

Six months ago, Correa was ready to run for another election in 2017 and was strongly pushing reforms to the Constitution that would allow indefinite re-election. A few weeks ago, he declared his presence in the 2017 elections was not necessary given the evidence of a week and not articulated opp...

New Alliance Reconfigures the Election Scenario
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 22 Dec 2015

The electoral scenario keeps shifting, sometimes in surprising ways. Last week, the social democratic PRM and the conservative PRSC – the latter a traditional ally of the ruling PLD -- announced an electoral alliance, after negotiations between the PRSC and the PLD failed to generate a satisfacto...

Whirlwind
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Dec 2015

The opposition won in a landslide on December 6, taking 58 percent of the national vote and a two-thirds National Assembly majority. Participation reached 74 percent, a record for legislative elections. Voters turned on the powerful heads of Maduro’s ruling coalition by voting against coalitio...

Week of December 21
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Dec 2015

This is the last week of legislative activity in Congress. According to the Constitution, congressmen begin their recess this Wednesday (12/23). On Monday, Lower House President Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ) meets with party leaders. The main item on the agenda is to discuss the impeachment proceedi...

The Latest Economic Activity Indicators
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Dec 2015

Last week two important indicators of economic activity were published: a) the IBC-Br, pointing to a further GDP contraction; and b) the real retail sales data (restricted sense, excluding cars and construction materials), which showed slight growth after eight straight months of decline. This la...

MPC Preview: Simplification to Start
TURKEY · Report · 21 Dec 2015

The Monetary Policy Committee will hold its regular monthly meeting tomorrow to decide on the short-term interest rates. In line with the messages delivered earlier by the CBRT, the market expects – generally speaking – a hike of the weekly repo rate and the O/N borrowing rate, currently at 7.5% ...

Policy-makers show signs of hyperactivity
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Dec 2015 · 3 responses

Less than two weeks after a series of MNB comments on what they were going to do to loosen policy soon, by which they managed to talk DOWN the forint moderately, and just days after the December rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council, at which they took no new measures at all, policy-makers...

Fighting for Growth in 2016
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Dec 2015

Though slightly stronger in Q3, GDP growth’s decelerating trend has also been confirmed. Y/y growth was pulled down by this year’s poor agricultural results; if we exclude those, the slowdown from 2014 is barely noticeable. However, the real story is told by the recent q/q growth rates, which sug...

The STF reinforces the role of the Senate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Dec 2015

The decision by the Federal Supreme Court (STF) increases the confusion that the impeachment proceedings have added to Brazilian politics. It favored the government and displeased the opposition. The majority of the ministers decided that it is up to the Senate to install the process, or not. Thi...

Dilma Rousseff Administration
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Dec 2015

The replacement of Joaquim Levy by Nelson Barbosa in the Ministry of Finance is another negative signal from the government that the fiscal adjustment might not be taken as seriously as before. Concerned with the reaction from the markets, the Chief of Staff, Jaques Wagner, and the Central Bank p...

A free FX market, at last
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 17 Dec 2015

Finally the long anticipated day came. Argentina liberalized its FX rate, abandoning irrational and anachronistic capital controls implemented towards the end of 2011. Those controls kept Argentina in a contradictive state regarding its FX-rate-regime. The official FX market was a quasi-fixed reg...

Slower growth amidst regional uncertainties
PANAMA · Forecast · 17 Dec 2015

The Panamanian economy continues on its path towards more moderate growth: real GDP expanded by 5.6% in Q3 and 5.8% until September 2015 y/y. Transportation, storage and communications, realty and services to business, construction, financial intermediation, and electricity, gas and water were th...

Finance Ministry rejects to pay on Russian debt, official statement
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Dec 2015

Yesterday, on December 16 the IMF Executive Board decided that $3 billion of Ukrainian Eurobonds Russia’s National Wealth Fund purchased in 2013 is an official claim for the purposes of the Fund’s policy on arrears to official bilateral creditors. Previously, on December 8 the IMF changed its len...

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