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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 13 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 16
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA: FISCAL PRESSURES AND POLITICAL SHIFTS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Echoing the uncertain election mood, the South African economy shrinks in the first quarter of 2024
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Jun 2024
Real quarterly GDP contracted by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2024. This was following an expansion of 0.3% q/q during the fourth quarter of 2023 and a contraction of 0.4% q/q in the third quarter of 2023. This latest GDP print showcases that the South African economy indeed started 2024 on an an...
The MP on measures to compensate for the payroll tax exemption extension was published, the Senate may vote on the Mover bill, and environment employees are on strike
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Jun 2024
The provisional measure (MP) to compensate for the extension of the payroll tax exemption was published yesterday. According to the Federal Revenue Service, the cost of the exemption in 2024 is R$26.3 billion. Today, the Senate may vote on the bill that regulates the Green Mobility and Innovation...
Deepening relations between Iran and Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jun 2024
Russia expressed its deepest condolences on the death of the Iranian President on May 19. Iran is one of the few countries outside the former USSR where Russia has a true friend. The death of President Raisi and his foreign minister is unlikely to result in any diminution in the scale of Iranian ...
Parsing the general elections
INDIA · Report · 04 Jun 2024
The BJP was expected to solidly win the elections. They have emerged as the largest single party but with a modest showing. They are about 30 to 40 seats short of a majority coalition. These results give new life to opposition parties. The successful coalition, which is likely to be led by BJP, w...
Bernard Appy will hold a press conference on the second Tax Reform bill, Padilha stated that the economic team will publish compensation measures for the payroll tax exemption, and the Senate may vote on the Mover bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Jun 2024
The Extraordinary Secretary for Tax Reform, Bernard Appy, the director of the Extraordinary Secretariat for Tax Reform (Sert), Manoel Procópio Jr., and representatives of states and municipalities will hold a press conference today to outline the second bill on Tax Reform regulation. Alexandre Pa...
Detailed Q1 GDP affirms preliminary data, reflects improvement but also an unhealthy structure
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jun 2024
This morning's detailed KSH data on Q1 GDP affirmed the preliminary 0.8% qoq, 1.7% yoy growth, a marked improvement from Q4 2023's 0% qoq, 0.5% yoy figures (all on sda basis): Further reasonably good news is the 0.6% qoq, 3.4% yoy expansion measured for household consumption, especially after all...
A first glance at the new political map after the June 2 elections
MEXICO · In Brief · 04 Jun 2024
A first glance at the new political map after the June 2 elections The surprising magnitude of the victory of Morena and its allies in all the elections held on June 2 caused a profound change in the distribution of political power that will last for many years. A victory of Claudia Sheinbaum was...
Fiscal deficit target in 2024 appears credible
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Jun 2024
Fiscal deficit target in 2024 appears credible As we had expected, the MOF just published a revised revenue forecast for 2024, which is 16.2 bl ILS above the original fiscal assumption. This takes into account revenues for the first five months and a conservative estimate for the rest of the year...
OPEC+ outlines production through 2025, phasing out this year’s cuts and giving an uplift for the UAE
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Jun 2024 · 1 response
* The ministerial meeting was more ambitious than expected after a shift in venue to Riyadh. * This year’s 2.2m b/d in voluntary cuts by 8 countries will be phased out from Q4-24 to Q3-25. * The UAE has been allocated an additional 300k b/d that will phase in during 2025. * A fuller reallocati...
The new reality and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Jun 2024
The government may announce compensation measures for the payroll tax exemptions. It is also expected to send to Congress a bill on Tax Reform regulation that creates the Management Committee. The Senate may vote on a proposal to stimulate the automotive sector (Mover Program) and to institute a...
The Central Bank's Herculean Task
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Jun 2024
The dissent in the last Copom meeting complicated further the work of the Central Bank by accentuating the detachment of inflation expectations from the target in adverse global and domestic scenarios. The favorable reading of IPCA-15, which displayed relatively well-behaved underlying measures, ...
Economics: Indicators released in May point to an economic deceleration
MEXICO · Report · 03 Jun 2024
Economic indicators released over the course of May confirm a gradual but sustained weakening of economic activity, which adds to other internal and external economic challenges that will be exacerbated during 2025. The signs of weakening not only extend throughout the supply components, but also...
Greater circumspection on monetary policy
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 Jun 2024
When the Monetary Board of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP or the Philippines’ central bank) concluded its May 2024 meeting on monetary policy two weeks ago, the stance of monetary policy was established, and it remained hawkish in view of the rising trend of price pressures and the upside r...
Broadly as expected, still sticky
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jun 2024
Consumer prices increased by a slightly higher than expected 3.4%, m/m, in May, with the 12-month rate peaking at 75.5% up from 69.8% in April. Domestic-PPI posted a 2% increase, which raised the 12-month rate to 57.7% from 55.7% a month earlier (Graph 1; Table 1).
Essential CIS Politics: June 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 03 Jun 2024
* In Russia, the defense minister, several cabinet ministers and governors were replaced. * Putin visited Beijing and hailed its partnership with China. * The Foreign Agents Bill was passed in Georgia but vetoed by the President before being finally approved by parliament. ...