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Central Bank Law Reform
VENEZUELA · Report · 09 Dec 2014

The BCV Law reform decreed by President Maduro under the aegis of the Enabling Law (Official Gazette No. 6156 Extraordinary, 19 November 2014) is a step back in terms of foreign reserve management and transparency.Article 31 hints that the flow of macroeconomic and financial data published by the...

COPOM Decision: Giving with one Hand and Taking Back with the other
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Dec 2014

In its first meeting since the presidential election, the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) started a tightening cycle. It justified the decision (which was not unanimous) by stating that it was due to the inflationary effects coming from the “intensification of the adjustments or relative prices...

Internal Contradictions
CHILE · Report · 08 Dec 2014

Executive SummaryTwo major international summits that took place in November, in China and Australia, were all about Ukraine and Russia and met with no apparent success. Despite intense consultations, President Putin was unable to conduct a fruitful dialogue with his counterparts from Europe, and...

The Current Account Deficit Tapers Marginally
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Dec 2014

According to official figures released today by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), the deficit on the current account narrowed by R5 billion to register R230 billion in the third quarter of 2014 – see Table 1. Table 1 Balance of payments on current account, South Africa, 2013 Q3 – 2014 Q3Note...

Stimulating
PERU · Report · 08 Dec 2014

Executive SummaryThe government finally seems resolved to step up measures to address growth slowdown. After an array of small stimulus packages, Minister of Finance Alonso Segura is taking more aggressive steps, to prod growth toward the government’s 2015 5.5% of GDP target. Surprise! These prop...

An Unexpected Turn in the Polls
HUNGARY · Report · 08 Dec 2014

Executive SummaryOur main story this month is, somewhat unexpectedly, about politics. Less than two months after its third impressive election victory this year, the governing Fidesz-KDNP alliance’s popularity has fallen markedly, as reflected by latest polls, a number of street demonstrations an...

Weekly Tracker: December 7-13
TURKEY · Report · 07 Dec 2014

Executive SummaryTurkey’s Supreme Court is expected to rule on a challenge to the country’s electoral system within 30 days that may cause AKP to do some fine-tuning with the qualification hurdle—for the lack of a better phrase. At this point, there is little need to worry about the party losing ...

Venezuela could have sold Dominican Rep's debt under Petrocaribe to Goldman Sachs at 41% of its value
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 06 Dec 2014 · 3 responses

According to press reports, Venezuelan goverment and its PDVSA would have sold to Goldman Sachs the debt of the Dominican Republic contracted under the terms of Petrocaribe, an agreement through which Venezuela provides long term low interest credit for a portion of oil imported from Venezuela. G...

How soon will Argentina return to “Common Sense Economics”?
ARGENTINA · Report · 04 Dec 2014

“Common sense economics” refers to a countercyclical fiscal policy that tries to generate fiscal surpluses (or at least fiscal balance) when external conditions feed an economic boom and confine fiscal deficits to recessionary scenarios; a monetary policy that targets inflation; trade and exchang...

Pdvsa Bond
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 03 Dec 2014

Last week, the National Superintendency of Securities (SNV) posted on its website that on October 22 Pdvsa was authorized to issue $3 billion in foreign currency bonds by way of a private placement. No further details were disclosed. This approval occurred six days ahead of the Pdvsa 2014 $3 bill...

Inflation: Modest Improvements in Trend
TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2014

November CPI inflation came in at 0.2%, broadly as expected, which meant a slight increase in the 12-month rate to 9.2% from 9% in October, on the back of last November’s low base. Food prices are relatively well-behaved this time, rising modestly over a month ago, while, as expected, transportat...

Costa Rica: Budget Victories, at a Price
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 03 Dec 2014

Executive SummaryAfter almost three months of heated debate, Costa Rican President Luis Guillermo Solís got his 2015 budget approved, unchanged. Though this was a political victory, its second-round effects will be less favorable. The fight generated some casualties, even within the president’s o...

How Far Is Argentina’s Return To “Common Sense Economics”?
ARGENTINA · Report · 02 Dec 2014

Nearing the end of the third quarter of 2012 the Argentine economy is showing clear signs of stagnation, with 25% annual inflation; country risk more than twice that of crisis-suffering Spain; and a black market premium in the foreign exchange market of approximately 40%.This is taking place desp...

Q3 Growth a Bit Limp
MEXICO · Report · 02 Dec 2014

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Q3 GDP grew 2.2% y/y, just as we estimated. Most analysts were disappointed by that, and lowered their expectations of the economy’s recovery prospects, though such pessimism suggests most were not paying close enough attention to the monthly GDP proxy (IGAE). In the wake of Aug...

Debunking three Turkey stories
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Dec 2014

Three new Turkey stories that erupted into the investors’ agenda need urgent treatment by the usual know-it-all style of the Political Analyst. According to Bloomberg and WSJ, Ankara and Washington DC are close to announcing a deal to establish no-flight and buffer zones in Syria. Pure bunk, I sa...

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