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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Headline OK, Details Not…
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2014

February CPI inflation came in at 0.4%, which meant a very slight increase in the 12-month rate to just below 8% from 7.8% a month earlier (Table 1; Graph 1). This is broadly in line with expectations and slightly lower than ours. But the underlying details are rather worrying. First, we had this...

Actions review: nerve wracking play
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Mar 2014

Though Putin already was granted permission to act officially, real military actions did not start yet. Russian troops keep teasing Ukrainian forces in Crimea trying to provoke more aggression. In particular, through the day Russian soldiers have been entertaining themselves by taking into besieg...

Weekly Tracker: March 2-8
TURKEY · Report · 02 Mar 2014

Executive Summary The Politics Author wishes to announce that he has changed his base-case scenario. He now expects political uncertainty to linger until the presidential elections in August. The trade deficit began to narrow in 12-month rolling terms in January, which should deepen in the coming...

It’s a war
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Mar 2014

Putin requested permission of the parliament to start military intervention. Effectively, this statement is equivalent to official announcement of war to Ukraine. Currently, we observe simultaneous large-scale destabilization at the southeast. In many cities pro-Russian forces organized large and...

Crimean situation review: Putin’s provocations did not work so far
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Feb 2014

Moscow is trying to launch Abkhazian scenario for Ukraine. After victory of Maidan it is critical for Vladimir Putin to take some revenge on Ukraine. Annexation of Crimea looks like his choice for revenge. Disposition in Crimea is very good for this plan: Russian-speaking population, Russian mili...

GUATEMALA: Moderate Growth
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Feb 2014

Executive SummaryThe outlook for the Guatemalan economy 2014-2015 is similar to that of 2013. Real GDP growth is projected at 3.5%-4.0%; inflation will be within the 4% ± 1 p.p. of the Central Bank’s target range; and the exchange rate will stay at 7.90-8.10 quetzals per dollar. Interest rates wi...

Try Again
PERU · Report · 28 Feb 2014

Executive Summary President Ollanta Humala quickly lost the popularity rally he enjoyed in the wake of the favorable Hague ruling on Peru’s maritime border with Chile, after the government mismanaged the PR aspect of a 100% salary hike for top government officials. Humala’s rating tumbled back to...

The Performance of GDP in the Fourth Quarter of 2013
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Feb 2014

The GDP growth of 0.7% in the last quarter of 2013 (Graph 1) came as a surprise: it was above the most optimistic projections. In contrast, GDP contracted in the third quarter by 0.5%. With this, growth in 2013 reached 2.3%. The main surprise was gross fixed capital formation, which instead of th...

Housing Market: Bumpy Ride
CHINA · Report · 28 Feb 2014

Executive Summary Exports and imports both grew faster, up 10.6% and 10% y/y respectively in January. Almost all increases came from commodity trade. We expect the relatively high growth rate in trade to persist, and even to speed up -- especially after May. CPI rose 2.5% y/y in January, fl...

Fiscal Reforms for the Next Government …and the Canal Expansion Project is on Again…
PANAMA · Report · 28 Feb 2014

ACP announced that it had just reached a “conceptual agreement” with GUPC, the main contractor for the Panama Canal expansion project. The key elements of this new accord released on February 28th (for which the final wording is still pending) include five main conditions. The first one (importan...

Good and bad of the fiscal certainty agreement
MEXICO · In Brief · 28 Feb 2014

Today,after a meeting of a special government Committee for a “Prosperous Mexico”, specialized in economic policy and formed by different government ministries, the Secretary of Finance, Luis Videgaray, announced a “Tax Certainty Agreement”. This agreement pursues several goals. Amongst them, the...

Reform program – any luck this time?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Feb 2014

Parliament today approved new Cabinet with Arseniy Yatseniuk as a prime-minister. Also parliament accepted reform program of the new Cabinet. In fact the document (reform program) appeared to be a summary of key actions the authorities plan to do in the nearest future without much details. Among ...

Budgeting Under Stress
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Feb 2014

Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan presented yesterday a balanced budget despite a lack of space for fiscal maneuvers. His eye was clearly on averting another credit rating downgrade. The Minister spoke the right language in (1) containing expenditure and (2) keeping all welfare expenditure incre...

Escalation in Crimea
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Feb 2014

Some unidentified armed people captured the government and parliament building in Crimea today in the morning. There are also reports that Russian armed forces moved out of their military bases in Crimea (few dozens of Infantry Fighting Machines are reported standing near Simferopol the capital o...

Budgeting Under Stress
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 27 Feb 2014

Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan presented yesterday a balanced budget despite a lack of space for fiscal manoeuvres. His eye was clearly on averting another credit rating downgrade. The Minister spoke the right language in (1) containing expenditure and (2) keeping all welfare expenditure incr...

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