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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Deflation Continues
CHINA · Forecast · 06 May 2015

Executive Summary Crimped by economic slowdown and weak demand, GDP growth slid to a new low in Q1, edging up just 0.3 pp from Q4 2014, to 7% y/y. Value added for major industrial firms fell 1.2 pp, to grow only 6.4% y/y. Industrial output growth took the biggest hit, falling to 5.6% y/y in March...

Volatile Signals
CHILE · Report · 05 May 2015

Executive Summary Incoming data, especially on economic activity and consumption, must be taken with a grain of salt. This is because of the two significant natural disasters that hit the country in the past two months. Their economic impact is not easy to assess. On the consumption side, i...

Michel Temer faces first big challenge
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 May 2015

The House of Representatives may vote this afternoon on the first interim measure of the fiscal adjustment: MP 665/14, on unemployment insurance and salary bonuses. The vote will be the first major test of Vice President Michel Temer. In early April he took over the government’s political coordin...

Sowing the Seeds of Uncertainty
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 05 May 2015

Executive Summary Confidence across sections of the South African economy remains low, dragged by uncertainties about the electricity supply, industrial relations instability and socioeconomic tension. In all, economic performance appears to have entered a slow down phase. South Africa’s economic...

Returning to the “markets”?
ARGENTINA · Report · 04 May 2015

Executive Summary With the objective of validating access to the local capital market and softening the financing burden of sterilization costs on the Central Bank, the government reversed its prior “capital market independent” strategy, placing AR$ and US$ debt. The US$ debt placement not only h...

Week of May 4
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 May 2015

This week, the House tries to vote on its first fiscal austerity measure: MP 655, which deals with unemployment insurance and salary bonuses. In the Senate, Finance Minister Joaquim Levy speaks about the crisis and the long term expectations for the country. The IBGE will release April inflation ...

Difficulties in Achieving the Primary Surplus Target
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 May 2015

In this note we summarize the fiscal result for the first quarter, and based on the Central Government’s accounts, discuss the difficulties in meeting the target of 1.2% of GDP. With full transparency and without any artifices, in March the Central Government attained a primary surplus of R$ 1...

But Next Year, It Will Get Better...
TURKEY · Report · 04 May 2015

Today’s inflation print was unfavorable, with CPI inflation coming in at a higher than expected 1.6%, m/m. This has raised the 12-month CPI rate to just under 8% (7.9%, to be precise), further complicating the CBRT’s job and expectation management (Table 1; Graph 1).Food is largely to blame for t...

Weekly Tracker: May 3-9
TURKEY · Report · 03 May 2015

Executive Summary We reviewed the latest polls and revisited our scenarios. In 6 recent polls that we find credible, AKP is firmly in the lead but HDP makes it to parliament by the skin of its nose, while CHP is treading water. Nevertheless, poll momentum suggests that short-lived coalition gover...

New PM a Peacemaker So Far
PERU · Forecast · 01 May 2015

Executive Summary GDP growth at 2.4% in 2014 was very disappointing, after the 5.5% average annual growth of the previous five years. While part of the slowdown can be attributed to transitory supply shocks, affecting fisheries and agriculture, investment growth has stagnated, after raising an av...

Important follow-up to yesterday’s report, “Financial Reform Rollbacks”
INDIA · In Brief · 01 May 2015

I would like to rectify some of the analysis presented in yesterday’s report entitled “Financial Reform Rollbacks”. In my report yesterday I said: One key area of failure was tax policy and tax administration. As these reports have emphasized, the budget did not have a plan for how to fix the fai...

Dominican Rep politics: Bill declaring the need to allow re-election introduced in the Senate
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 May 2015

In a bold move, yesterday 13 Senators introduced a bill in the Senate declaring the need to amend article 124 of the Constitution and calling for a joint session of the Senate and the House in order to introduce changes. The amendment would allow an incumbent President to run for re-election and ...

Dominican Rep allocates USD 1 bn in Sovereign Bonds
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 30 Apr 2015

Today, the Government of the Dominican Republic allocated USD 1 bn in Sovereign Bonds in global capital markets. The dual-tranche allocation (reopening of 10 and 30-year bonds) is part of the financing needs set in the budget for 2015. The reop of the 10-year bonds reached 5.125%, with a total am...

Monetary policy confusion
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 30 Apr 2015

Special points to highlight in this issue: There have been a number of announcements by the PBoC and other Beijing officials referring to changes and innovations in the way China will conduct monetary policy. Most of these have to do with improving the transmission of monetary policy and credit a...

Financial Reform Rollbacks
INDIA · Report · 30 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The BJP has rolled back the proposal of applying MAT on foreign investors. Until the fine print is read, we cannot be sure about what the tax authorities have done. And, the increase in the withholding tax from 5% to 18% stands. On financial reform, three issues have held: infla...

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