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UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: POLITICAL PASSIONS IN THE...

Stability into the election
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Jan 2024

Indonesia's general election is already around the corner—it will be held on February 14, 2024. The incumbent, President Joko Widodo, is ineligible to run for a third time, based on the Indonesian Constitution. The presidential candidates for the current election are former Governor of Metropolit...

The Evergrande court case - what's next?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 29 Jan 2024

The Hong Kong high court ordered one of China’s largest property developers, China Evergrande Group, to liquidate, theoretically ending several years of uncertainty about the future of the developer. The court appointed a Hong Kong restructuring firm, Alvarez and Marsal, to handle the liquidation...

Russian macro 2023: Feels like an ordinary year
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jan 2024

Rosstat’s recent revisions of the national accounts for 2021 and 2022 suggest that the Russian economy performed somewhat better in those years than previously estimated. As the quarterly GDP statistics were revised accordingly, it looks as though the current growth trends appear more positive th...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jan 2024

THE BET ON POLARIZATION Lula has entered 2024 facing a challenging political scenario, to say the least. Despite decent economic growth and lower inflation in 2023, his approval ratings are not comfortable, and the economic outlook for this year is more modest. Besides public money to boost de...

Putin registered as an election candidate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Jan 2024

On January 29 the announcement was made by the Central Election Commission (CEC). The Putin campaign successfully submitted the requisite number of signatures for his registration, which is 315,000. A small number were invalidated because of mistakes. The signatures had to come from at least 40 o...

Politics: Violence, elections and political control—Part One
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jan 2024

In this issue of the Political Outlook we take a look at the interrelated questions of the presence of organized crime, its effect on local governments and authorities, and politically motivated violence on the part of such criminal gangs. The bottom line is that the expansion of organized crime...

Maduro tightens the reins
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 Jan 2024

Maduro's government started off the year with an offensive to consolidate hardline positions in the face of threats it’s facing in this electoral year. It has three strategic objectives: first, strengthen its leadership and bureaucratic and electoral apparatuses; second, promote division and abst...

What to expect from the municipal elections and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jan 2024

In the last week of the congressional recess, the government is negotiating solutions to a series of disagreements with Congress. Payroll tax relief and vetoes of congressional funds continue to create tension. The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), is trying to discuss friction between...

Economics: Data in recent weeks show internal demand leading strong growth, core prices fanning inflation and non-automotive manufacturing falling
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jan 2024

January delivered further evidence that the Mexican economy performed better in 2023 than had been expected thanks in large part to a resurgence of the construction sector. This sector has benefitted from the combination of massive government outlays for its signature infrastructure projects and ...

The STF decides on the lifetime review of the INSS, Lewandowski takes over as Minister of Justice, and Vale discusses the appointment of a new president
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jan 2024

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) is expected to adjudicate an appeal submitted by the Attorney General's Office (AGU) against a decision that recognized the right of retirees to opt for the application of the most beneficial rule in calculating the retirement benefit (lifetime review of the INSS)....

Special report—Russia increases arms trade with Iran over India
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 29 Jan 2024

Russia and Iran are closing in on a major deal that will see two-way arms trade between them increase significantly over coming months and years. This is important for the conflict in Ukraine, where Russian inferiority in drones and unmanned craft was initially telling, but also across other area...

With indicators coming in on the positive side, GDP contraction in Q423 likely to be modest
ISRAEL · Report · 29 Jan 2024

Recent economic indicators have been on the positive side: * The BoI Composite Index increased by 0.4% m/m in December, and November’s print was revised higher, to -0.3% from -0.7%. * Real-time daily data point to strong private consumption growth, reaching 4% above pre-war levels...

Slide Presentation: Philippines - Outlook, risks and challenges for Marcos 2.0
PHILIPPINES · Report · 29 Jan 2024

Get insight into the challenges facing the Marcos administration's sustainable economic growth goals and how the growing divides in the Philippines, the country's charter change, and territorial conflict in the West Philippine Sea will shape the country's political outlook—all with the slide pres...

EU matters, fiscal policy and tomorrow's Monetary Council
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Jan 2024

The forint, which had been getting progressively weaker since Mr. Virág spoke about the possibility of faster and deeper base rate cuts on January 17, was pushed further in a negative direction on Friday, by Finance Minister Varga's saying that they will aim at reducing the fiscal deficit below 3...

Ukraine has lost 100,000 mortar shells to fraud
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2024

On January 27 the SBU (Ukrainian intelligence) said the scheme uncovered was worth USD 40 million. Ministry Defense civil servants and managers of Lviv Arsenal stole the money. Six people have been given notices of suspicion and another suspect was arrested trying to leave the country. The contra...