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GULF WEEKLY: Moody’s upgraded Oman again, oil touched a six-month low, Saudi budgets rising debt, Putin visited Gulf
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Dec 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent oil touched $74, the lowest in nearly six months, as demand worries eclipsed OPEC+ cuts. * The UAE tabled a new Gaza ceasefire resolution at the UN, after a rare request from UNSC Guterres. * Gulf states displayed u...

Alibaba and China’s property collapse
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 08 Dec 2023

How will China’s property crisis end? With a whimper or a bang? One advantage China has is geographical and financial diversity. China’s 22 provinces each have distinct economic attributes and are economically quite diverse, mainly because they raise and spend the majority of their own revenue...

Russia sets March 17 for presidential election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Dec 2023

On December 7 the Russian Federal Council approved the date for 2024. Anti-corruption campaigner Alexey Navalny said from jail people should vote for anyone but Putin. Navalny said that the election would be rigged but people should vote nonetheless. He said it is a referendum on the war. A ''Rus...

South Africa’s current account deficit moderates
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Dec 2023

Current account data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) today indicates that, in the third quarter of 2023, the deficit in South Africa’s current account narrowed significantly, from R185.2 billion in the second quarter to R19.3 billion. Relative to GDP, the current account deficit...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2023

The situation on the FX market has changed during the last couple of weeks. After some period of strengthening, which was triggered by a fresh version of partial capital controls, such as compulsory sales of export earnings introduced in mid-October, the ruble started to weaken and almost reached...

Two new stories: November CPI and EU funds
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Dec 2023

November data for CPI-inflation is due tomorrow. Following 9.9% yoy for the headline rate in October, Portfolio.hu's usual analyst poll has come out with median expectation of 8.2% yoy, within a 7.8-8.4% yoy range, to be followed by by a 6.2% yoy median expected for December, the latter within a ...

Deputy Faria should submit his report on the ICMS MP, a session of Congress was scheduled for next week to analyze presidential vetoes, and Tarcísio Freitas was able to approve the privatization bill for Sabesp in São Paulo
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Dec 2023

The submission of Deputy Luiz Fernando Faria's (PSD-MG) report on the provisional measure (MP) nº 1,185/23, which deals with the ICMS subsidy, was postponed from yesterday to today. As a request to review the text will likely be submitted, the vote should be postponed to next week. A session of t...

The business sector remains pessimistic, but slightly less
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Dec 2023

The CBS Business Survey for November continues to point to contraction in activity with a net balance of -1.5 (-1.9 in Oct) for the present activity component (compared to +23 in Sept). The expectations for next month are still net negative (-11.75) but less than in Oct (-23), similar to the empl...

Ukraine claims it killed traitor politician
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2023

On December 6 Kyiv said that the former deputy in the Ukrainian Parliament who defected to Russia was shot dead by its operative outside Moscow. Ilya Kyva had been tried in absentia in a Ukrainian court for high treason and sentenced to 14 years in prison. Kyva had repeatedly gone on Russian TV a...

Sharp decline in travel abroad + consumer confidence rebounds
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Dec 2023

Sharp decline in travel abroad In November, 167,000 Israelis went abroad, a decrease of 77% compared to November last year. Due to such a sharp decline in the number of passengers and in the number of flights, it is reasonable to assume that the Central Bureau of Statistics will decide not to mea...

Poor retail sales and industry data for October
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Dec 2023

Retail sales (volume terms, seasonally and day-adjusted) shrank by 0.3% mom, 6.9% yoy, the latter following -7.7% yoy in September. The Q3 figure was -7.7% yoy, and January-October was a 9.1% yoy fallback in total. The fixed-base chart (December 2010 = 100, courtesy of KSH) looked like the one be...

Deputy Faria may submit his report on the ICMS MP, the vote on the online sports betting bill was postponed to next week, and the STF should adjudicate the State-Owned Companies Law case today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Dec 2023

Deputy Luiz Fernando Faria (PSD-MG) may submit his report on the provisional measure (MP) 1185/23, which deals with the ICMS subsidy, today. Since this is the government's top priority, there is a lot of pressure on Congress. A session of Congress is scheduled for tomorrow, but activities in Bras...

Correction in my recent Market Brief
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Dec 2023

I've inadvertedly stated IYIP garnered ca 8% of the national vote in May 2023. The correct figure  is 9.6%. 

IYIP’s fateful choice may shape the outcome of municipal elections
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Dec 2023

By a 35-14 vote, Iyi Party’s top decision-making body GIK turned down a request by CHP chair Ozgur Ozel to cooperate in municipal elections. The decision to go solo in the next ballot to gauge its grass-roots support is a fateful choice by IYIP that has profound implications for the party, munici...

Putin to visit Saudi Arabia and the UAE
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2023

On December 4 the Kremlin announced the visit, which will take place this week. OPEC+ agreed on November 30 to cut output by 2.2 million barrels a day. Russia is a member of OPEC+. Markets did not react as expected because many doubt that the cuts will be implemented in full. Prices have fallen s...

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