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The president of the União Brasil was accused of owning jets involved in organized crime, the rapporteur of the Amnesty Bill will begin negotiations on the matter next week, and Lula has scheduled a trip to the U.S.
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Sep 2025

The relationship between the government and União Brasil party has once again become tense. The party’s president, Antonio Rueda, was accused of being the hidden owner of executive jets used to transport members of organized crime. Next week promises to be busy. The rapporteur of the Amnesty Bill...

GULF WEEKLY: All mirror Fed cuts, Saudi revises inflation basket, Kuwait's population declines
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Sep 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf central banks all mirrored the US’s -25bp interest rate cut. * The IEA warned that annual field decline is higher than previously estimated, about -5.5m b/d. * Saudi Arabia revised its inflation basket, lifting the w...

Tax collection gradually improves but not enough
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 Sep 2025

The Ministry of Finance released 8M25 budget execution data for all levels of the nation’s budget system, including republican and local budgets, the National Fund, and extra-budgetary funds, which are now part of the consolidated budget statistics. Although tax collection showed some improvement...

Webinar replay - Turkey politics: CHP vs. Goliath
TURKEY · Report · 19 Sep 2025

As the Erdogan-controlled legal system aims to divide and paralyze CHP with lawsuits, what countermeasures is the party's chairman Ozel taking? Can the CHP continue as a functioning political party in the face of these attacks and the pending indictments of arrested CHP mayors? With the Peace Com...

Is the emerging trading pattern stable?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Sep 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: The fight against involution seems to be working. Price declines moderated in August while most measures of production were below expectations. The question is whether Beijing can repress involution while still maintaining GDP growth targets, or will...

Topic of the week - 3Q2025 CCA Slide deck
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 19 Sep 2025

The quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia is a 206-slide detailed description of the economic status quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as of the third quarter of the year. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structure, inf...

Israel labor & demography: three prints, one message
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Sep 2025

We got three data points this week on the labor market and demography, and they all point the same way: the labor market remains tight. Demand for workers is increasing, while labor supply is constrained by reservist service and net emigration. That combination keeps wage and price pressures aliv...

The SA Reserve Bank halts monetary policy easing
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 18 Sep 2025

The SA Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at the conclusion of this week’s meeting. This leaves the repo rate at 7% and the prime lending rate at 10.5%. The SARB noted that, since September last year, rates have been lowered by a cu...

The House approved urgent status for the Amnesty Bill, the House also approved the Privileges PEC, and the government pushed through the Social Electricity Tariff to provide subsidized power to low-income families
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Sep 2025

The Lower House plenary approved urgent status for the Amnesty Bill for those imprisoned in connection with the January 8 attacks (PL 2162/23). The measure passed with 311 votes in favor and 163 against. Centrist parties only backed urgency for the amnesty after the PL overwhelmingly supported th...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 18 Sep 2025

Sep 4 Oil transportation: Russian Rosneft has reached an agreement with Chinese partners to supply an additional 2.5 million tons of oil via Kazakhstan. Parliament: Kazakhstan's parliament approved a law enabling authorities to monitor suspicious money transfers. National pipeline company: In Aug...

Bolsonaro’s health condition has worsened again, the House may vote on the urgent status of the amnesty bill, and the opposition appointed Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro as minority leader
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Sep 2025

Former President Jair Bolsonaro’s health condition has worsened again, and he was readmitted to the hospital yesterday. There is no expected date for him to be discharged. His health situation is worrying his allies. Today, the Lower House may vote on the urgent status of the amnesty bill. The la...

Slide presentation: And now for something completely different: Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Presentation · 17 Sep 2025

Is Brazil’s economy overheating? Wages are increasing well above productivity growth and tariffs imposed by the U.S. create new challenges for exports. Will changes to fiscal and monetary policy be able to address the country's challenges? View the slide presentation from our webinar, "And now f...

Ukraine’s 2026 budget: social spending up, election calculations in play
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Sep 2025

The Cabinet submitted the draft 2026 spending plan to parliament on September 15th, in accordance with the Budget Code. Central budget revenues are projected at UAH 2.9 trillion (29.1% of GDP), up by UAH 407.5 billion ($9.8 billion) from the current target. State expenditures are set at UAH 4.8 t...

Inflation resurges
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Sep 2025

Venezuela has entered a new cycle of accelerating inflation. We revise up our exchange rate and inflation forecasts for the period from September 2025 through December 2026. The bolivar’s defense capacity is weakening on low international oil prices, limitations imposed by oil licenses, and a ...

August print analysis: Housing and seasonality pushed inflation up;
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Sep 2025

August’s CPI rose 0.7% m/m slightly above our expectations for 0.6% rise, bringing headline inflation to 2.9% y/y, slightly below the upper bond of the target range of the central bank (1%-3%). The print was a classic summer seasonal reading: Airfares increased 17% and domestic holidays 12%, both...

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