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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Cards close to the chest
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Mar 2025

As expected, the Copom raised the Selic target rate from 13.25% to 14.25% per year, citing the adverse inflation scenario, reflected in still-elevated projections. Regarding its next moves, the Committee signaled its intention—should the expected scenario materialize—to persist with the monetary ...

On market volatility and CBRT actions: some preliminary reactions
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Mar 2025

After yesterday’s carnage in Turkish markets that reportedly led to some $10-$15 billion loss in reserves by some counts (driven mostly by foreign investor outflows, we hear), the CBRT has taken a number of actions today, which included raising the O/N lending rate by 200 bps to 46% from 44% prev...

Tax exemption bill faces opposition regarding compensatory measures, and congressional deadlines, interest rate hike, and committee elections mark the legislative agenda
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Mar 2025

While it would likely be difficult to vote against the bill that grants an income tax exemption for those earning up to R$ 5,000 per month, in the opposition the main criticism concerns the compensatory measures, which include a tax increase for those earning over R$ 50,000 per month. As expected...

A tangled context for the second round
ECUADOR · Report · 19 Mar 2025

The controversy around the concession of Camp Sacha was not without grounds. The Canadian-Chinese consortium failed to come up with the $1.5 billion required to complete the agreement before the deadline of Tuesday, March 11, required by President Noboa. The next government will have to make a de...

The government sends the income tax exemption bill to Congress, compensatory measures spark debate as Congress reviews income tax reform, and the Senate approves reciprocity bill against trade barriers and tax increases
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Mar 2025

The government, as previously announced, has sent to the National Congress a bill granting an income tax exemption for individuals earning up to R$ 5,000 per month. To offset the measure, which will have a fiscal cost of R$ 27 billion, the government proposed taxing those earning more than R$ 50,...

Bi-weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 Mar 2025

Mar 6 President: Mr. Tokayev held a phone conversation with the Russian President, Mr. Putin, and discussed the implementation of joint trade and energy projects and economic relations in general. Mar 7 NBK: The Bank hiked the base rate from 15.25% to 16.5%. National pipeline company: Kazakh oil ...

Erdogan crosses the Rubicon, Imamoglu and over hundred names arrested
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Mar 2025 · 5 responses

Erdogan has crossed the Rubicon in his quest to regain eligibility for a third term. His choice is an all-out assault on CHP to paralyze the party, too weak to call for elections for or even maintain eligibility for them for the next year or so. Late yesterday, University of Istanbul invalidated ...

Russian macro: a difficult year ahead
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 18 Mar 2025

According to Rosstat’s publications, after having soared in December 2024, the Russian economy posted comparatively unimpressive results in January, as the output of the five basic sectors grew by 3.1% y-o-y. In December, it grew by 7.5%. This indicator is a monthly measure of combined activities...

The Pension Reform allows both sides to claim victory, mining reactivation is the next step in the reform sequence, and the Supreme Court opens the door to resolving Ricardo Martinelli’s case
PANAMA · Report · 18 Mar 2025

The approval of the reform to the pension law can be considered a victory for all the opposing groups, except for the leftist unions and educators: the retirement age was not increased, the additional employer contribution was staggered, but the individual notional account system was maintained, ...

Lula signs bill for income tax exemption up to R$ 5,000, Senate Committee to review the IBS Management Bill as tax reform advances, and Minister Silveira announces the E30 fuel proposal and energy reform timeline
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Mar 2025

President Lula signs the bill that provides for an income tax (IR) exemption for individuals earning up to R$ 5,000 per month at an event scheduled for this morning at the Planalto Palace. Notably, PLP 108/2024, the bill addressing the IBS Management Committee and regulating tax reform, has final...

Political risks rise; growth forecast trimmed; fiscal deficit cut to 2.5% of GDP; Central Bank bends toward global risks
PERU · Report · 18 Mar 2025

In this forecast report we cover three topics. First, we discuss the political situation, and argue that risks will rise starting on April 12th, when the 2026 electoral campaign begins. During this period, President Dina Boluarte will become vulnerable to impeachment, and we project the odds of i...

Mitigation or laissez-faire?
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Mar 2025

Inflation over the next two years depends on how willing the government will be to use non-reserve foreign assets to mitigate the effects of the recent negative revenue shock stemming from the revocation of General License 41a. In February 2025, the monthly inflation rate rose to 10 percent fr...

Ministerial reform ahead of 2026 and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Mar 2025

The government may send Congress a proposal for an income tax exemption for those earning up to R$ 5,000. Congress may finally vote on the 2025 Budget. In the Lower House, the installation of permanent committees is expected. The Central Bank holds its second meeting of the year to decide the ben...

Economics: Continuing deterioration of Pemex financial and operational numbers as the government saddles it with objectives but no solutions
MEXICO · Report · 17 Mar 2025

Pemex experienced further operational and financial deterioration during 2024, according to figures in the company’s latest report, so much so as to put its viability at risk and to become an increasingly onerous burden on the Federal Government. Production of liquid hydrocarbons fell 6.2% (1,75...

The path of disinflation: between desire and reality
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Mar 2025

The Central Bank has signaled its understanding that the economy needs to slow down for inflation to converge to the target. In this report, we attempt to estimate the growth rate that aligns with the Central Bank’s scenario, particularly the path that moves from a positive output gap of 0.7% at ...

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