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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

2nd quarter economic growth steady
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 07 Aug 2025

The signs were known as early as June 2025 that economic growth in the Philippines would remain flat at the lower end of the revised GDP growth for the year 2025 of 5.5-6.5%. The average growth for the last five quarters stood at around 5.5-5.6%.   Source: Philippine Statistics Authority The Phil...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Aug 2025

Jul 24 KMG: Kazakhstan increased oil refining by 8.4% y-o-y in 1H25. Government: Turkish investors to build grain processing and fertilizer production plants in Kazakhstan for $610 mln. Jul 28 Asian Development Bank: The bank improved Kazakhstan's 2025 GDP growth forecast from 4.9% to 5.1%, and t...

Foreigners were the dominant segment supporting shekel appreciation in Q2
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Aug 2025

The Israeli shekel appreciated significantly in Q2 2025, gaining approximately 9.3% against the US dollar and 1.5% against the euro, driven by improved investor sentiment following Operation “Am KeLavi” and broad-based dollar weakness in global markets. The shekel also strengthened by 6% in effec...

Industry and retail sales figures for June: no trend change seen, business as usual
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Aug 2025

Preliminary industrial output and retail sales data (volume growth on sda basis) for June has been reported this morning. A quick look at the fixed-base chart below (volumes, Dec 2010=100, source: KSH) serves with the easy conclusion that there has not been any change in the long-standing trends,...

Credit where credit is due
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Aug 2025

The Copom minutes revive the curious formula of the “continuation of the interruption of the rate hiking cycle,” reaffirming the end of monetary tightening without stating it outright. This is, after all, a continuation of the decision made in June, which helps explain the scarcity of significant...

Members of Congress obstructed legislative activity yesterday, Trump’s tariffs take effect today, and the federal government may announce countermeasures today or tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Aug 2025

The Liberal Party (PL), along with representatives from União Brasil, the Progressita Party (PP), and the Republicanos, obstructed legislative activity in both the Lower House and the Senate. The effectiveness of the opposition’s obstruction strategy still hinges on whether other centrist parties...

Macro thoughts
TURKEY · Forecast · 05 Aug 2025 · 2 responses

It’s been a calm summer thus far, relatively speaking, despite an uneasy and uncertain political backdrop. The latter is likely to stay so indefinitely, we think, which should start taking a toll on the economy and markets, come late this year/early next. Economic activity has generally held u...

Justice Moraes placed Bolsonaro under house arrest, the opposition is threatening to obstruct votes in the Senate, and VP Alckmin confirmed Brazil will take the tariff issue to the WTO
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Aug 2025

Yesterday, Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Alexandre de Moraes placed former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) under house arrest. According to Moraes, the decision was made because Bolsonaro used the social media accounts of his allies to disseminate messages that “clearly encouraged and incited...

Israeli geopolitics: August 2025—dangerous stalemates on all fronts
ISRAEL · Report · 05 Aug 2025

Key takeaways from this report: Gaza ceasefire talks remain stalled: Negotiations between Israel and Hamas have collapsed over core disputes, including the extent of Israeli withdrawal, a commitment to ending the war, and the scope of prisoner exchanges. Efforts by mediators continue, but no b...

A general view of the economy ahead of the midterm elections—Part II: External issues
ARGENTINA · Report · 05 Aug 2025

This report completes the analysis begun in our July 22, 2025 report regarding Argentina’s main economic and financial issues 19 months into the Milei administration and three months before a midterm election that will critically influence what the administration can accomplish for the remainder ...

Wage growth slows in Israel in June; real wages continue to decline
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Aug 2025 · 1 response

The average nominal wage for all workers increased by 2.1% over the past year (based on original data through June), and by 2.5% among Israeli workers only. When seasonally adjusted, wages likely rose at a rate of about 3%, which is still considered relatively low (below the increase of inflation...

Economics: The latest public finance results are favorable but insufficient to halt debt growth as Pemex continues to deteriorate financially
MEXICO · Report · 04 Aug 2025

The evolution of public finances in the first half of 2025 and Pemex’s recently released operating results for the second quarter of 2025 point to a complex outlook for macroeconomic stability and the Mexican economy’s medium-term prospects. Government finances continued to deliver favorable resu...

Dispute with the U.S. reshapes the 2026 chessboard and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Aug 2025

Congress resumes its legislative work this week with a packed agenda for the second half of the year, including key issues such as the Income Tax Reform, regulation of the broader Tax Reform, and a provisional measure increasing taxes on financial investments and betting platforms. President Lula...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Aug 2025

OVERVIEW UNCERTAINTY IS THE NAME OF THE GAME The 50% tariff rise on U.S. imports of Brazilian products caused a rupture in diplomatic relations between the two countries, triggering the most acute political and economic crisis since Brazil’s redemocratization. Following Trump’s election,...

Politics: Scandal puts ties between politicians and organized crime under the spotlight
MEXICO · Report · 04 Aug 2025

A major scandal has erupted in Mexico with far-reaching short, medium, and long-term consequences. On July 12, General Miguel Ángel Martínez revealed that there is an outstanding arrest warrant for Hernán Bermúdez Requena, former Secretary of Public Security of Tabasco. He is charged with crimina...

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