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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Volatility of the real, interventions and capital flows
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Aug 2019

This Report has two objectives. The first is to present clear evidence that the behavior of the real is very volatile, justifying the Central Bank’s interventions trying to smooth out the exchange rate fluctuations. The theme of these interventions – and the recent change of the intervention inst...

OMAN: Fiscal deep dive 1: H1 performance won’t be sustained
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 30 Aug 2019

H1 fiscal numbers were surprisingly good thanks to one-off gains including the lagged impact of the 2017 income tax law and higher 2018 oil prices, a surge in investment income, and the sale of a stake in Khazzan gasfield. However, this will not be sustained in H2, when seasonal trends mean there...

Notes from Beijing
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Aug 2019

After several days attending meetings in Beijing among senior officials, along with Chinese and western journalists, the top areas of concern are the Hong Kong protests, the slowing economy, and in last place, the Trade War. De-risking the financial system remains a top priority, despite pressure...

Ukraine and Russia negotiate exchange of prisoners
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Aug 2019

Both Ukraine and Russia have confirmed that they are negotiating an exchange of prisoners. On August 30 Ukraine stated that the negotiations are not yet complete. They are eager to secure release of 24 Ukrainian sailors arrested in November 2018. There is rumor that these sailors have been releas...

Encouraging appointments, concerns on Interior Minister
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Aug 2019

New parliament started active work today. As expected, Oleksiy Honcharuk, Deputy Chief of Staff of the President Office was appointed as new Premier. Oksana Markarova kept her post of Finance Minister. Tymofiy Milovanov, Honorary President of Kyiv School of Economics, was appointed Minister of ec...

EURHUF reached a record high today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Aug 2019

The EURHUF exchange rate reached an historic record high at 331.85 today, against which it has recovered a bit in later trade. The forint has never been this weak; so far its record low was last summer's short-lived 330.8 level.Almost immediately, the MNB was asked for comment by Reuters, but the...

Saudi unlikely to let Lebanon default (yet)
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 29 Aug 2019 · 1 response

Lebanese bonds and CDS are under rising pressure as tensions with Israel have added to the country’s domestic woes.We put a probability of Gulf support at about 70%, most likely from Saudi Arabia. The current sell-off could offer a good opportunity to buy into Lebanese bonds, which would partiall...

Russia's shadow economy is 13% of GDP
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Aug 2019

An analysis of official data on August 28 concluded that 13% of Russia's GDP is made up of the shadow economy. The shadow economy consists of unofficial salaries, peer to peer sales and other informal economic activities. This is not about crime. The analysis was performed by RBK one of Russia's ...

IMF-induced “voluntary” debt restructuring?
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 29 Aug 2019 · 2 responses

Economic Minister Hernan Lacunza announced yesterday, after the market closed, that the executive is going to implement active debt management to voluntarily extend the maturity of short-termed and medium-termed public debt, allegedly without a hair cut on capital or interest.Below we summarize t...

GUATEMALA: New government, same challenges
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Aug 2019

​Dr. Alejandro Giammattei will step into the presidency of Guatemala on January 14th, 2020, after beating former first lady Sandra Torres in an August 11th second-round runoff.Giammattei, a medical doctor who spent 13 years pursuing the presidency, won’t have it easy.His VAMOS party holds just 16...

Russian plans major coal extraction drive
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Aug 2019

President Putin held a meeting for governors of Russia's seven main coal mining regions to congratulate them for their work. The Energy Minister Alexander Novak made a speech on the success of the coal industry. He claimed that over the past decade Russian coal extraction has increased by 30%. It...

Russia and Turkey enhance co-operation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Aug 2019

On August 27 the presidents of Russia and Turkey held a press conference in Moscow to announce their plan to co-operate in destroying ISIS in Syria. Turkey already has troops in her southern neighbor Syria against the wishes of the Syrian Government. There is a tense situation because the Syrian ...

Public Protector’s job under pressure
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Aug 2019 · 1 response

​In 1995, the office of the Public Protector (PP) was established, and so far, four people have held the office, with Advocate Busisiwe Mkhwebane occupying the position currently. The PP forms part of the six independent state institutions established by South Africa’s Constitution in an effort t...

Leave those bad times to rest
CHILE · Report · 27 Aug 2019

Growth was again low in Q2. We expect some recovery in H2, due mostly to a base effect. But amid growing concern over global slowdown, and the most recent escalation of the U.S.-China trade war, we aren’t particularly optimistic about q/q expansion. This leads us to cut our 2019 GDP growth projec...

Trump keen to bring Russia back into G7
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Aug 2019

A row has broken out in the G7 about the readmission of Russia. Russia was expelled from the group of major economies in 2014 due to the Ukrainian situation. President Trump is eager to bring Russia back in. Most countries are adamant that this must not happen unless Russia changes course majorly...

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