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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: What sort of opposition can endure?
MEXICO · Report · 12 Aug 2019

At least one, and perhaps both of the main opposition parties in Mexico will hold leadership contests in the coming days and weeks, with significant implications for the political situation. The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) held a national consultation last Sunday to elect a new nation...

Economics: Less inequality, but new trouble areas
MEXICO · Report · 12 Aug 2019

Last week’s release of the National Statistics Institute’s bi-annual National Household Income and Expenditure Survey (Enigh), which corresponds to the period between 2017 and 2018, and the accompanying analysis of how the various dimensions and degrees of poverty have evolved from Coneval, deliv...

Unexpected results in the Primaries - Game Over for Macri?
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 12 Aug 2019 · 2 responses

The results for the government in the obligatory, simultaneous primary elections (PASO) have been much worse than expected. The Kirchnerists obtained a landslide victory, in particular for candidates for president and governor of the province of Buenos Aires, i.e., the two most critical electoral...

BoI company survey pointing to modest growth in Q3
ISRAEL · Report · 12 Aug 2019

The BoI Company Survey for Q2 2019 is pointing to modest growth. * The net total balance is only +5, below that in 2018 (+12.8). * Industry and retail trade are reporting contraction in activity, while services, construction and hotels are reporting expansion. * Manufacturing...

Calm restored in Kyrgyzstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Aug 2019

On August 8 the ex-president Atambaev was arrested. He is facing charges of corruption and abuse of power. Atambaev's supporters had tried to prevent his arrest. Fighting led to the death of one police officer and the injury of 80 people. Order has now been restored.At the start of August there w...

Russia sees largest protests since 2011
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Aug 2019

On August 10 at least 20 000 people attended an illegal protest in Moscow. The protestors estimated the number at 50 000. The protest was against arbitrary decision to ban opposition candidates from the local elections due on September 8. Well known performers such as the rapper Oxymiron attended...

The economic implications of Ricardo Martinelli's acquittal
PANAMA · In Brief · 10 Aug 2019

Not guilty of the accusations that the Attorney General office (Ministerio Público, MP) presented against former president Ricardo Martinelli (July 2009-July 2014): illegal wiretapping of citizens and embezzlement of public funds. This was the unanimous verdict of three judges on Friday evening, ...

Negotiations, sanctions and worries
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Aug 2019

Respecting the secrecy imposed by Norway, government and opposition representatives have been negotiating in total confidentiality. The Norwegian Foreign Ministry's communiqué dated 2 August 2019 suggested there had been progress but agreements on critical issues were still pending. It emphasized...

China’s shadow banking flashpoint: wealth management products
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Aug 2019

The weakest link in China’s financial system is the size and growth of the financial system’s wealth management products (WMPs). The property market may be the shakiest aspect of the real economy, but on the financing side, WMPs are a high-risk funding source. The CNY29 trillion outstanding WMPs ...

SAUDI: Latest data show the economy remains firm as fiscal easing increases but global headwinds will continue to weigh on equities
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 09 Aug 2019

July PMI data shows the non-oil economy remains strong, consistent with the latest Q2 fiscal data, which revealed a deficit that had widened to USD9bn.The authorities are pursuing accommodative fiscal policy to prop up growth despite a global oil demand shock weighing on oil prices. However, refo...

Lower House concludes Pension Reform vote
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Aug 2019

The Lower House on August 7 concluded voting on Pension Reform. The proposal now moves to the Senate. In the Senate, there are fewer instances for deliberation on a constitutional amendment, which makes progress of the proposal less complex and swifter. The Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC,...

Clashes in Kyrgyzstan as ex-president defies government
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Aug 2019

The capital of Kyrgyzstan saw street brawls on August 7 as supporters of the ex-president clashed with the police. Former president Almazbek Atambaev is wanted in court on charges of abuse of power. Atambaev is holed up in his compound just outside the capital Bishkek and refusing to obey subpoen...

CPI-inflation down in July, convenient for the MNB
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Aug 2019

The headline CPI-inflation rate for July has been reported at 3.3% yoy this morning, just slightly down from 3.4% yoy in the previous month. Analysts, including us, expected no change at all. To a great extent, the little positive surprise came from the fact that fuel prices fell by 0.2% mom in J...

Another disappointing quarter
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 08 Aug 2019

When we forecasted a 5.9% GDP growth rate for 2019 at the start of the year, many commented that we were too bearish; after all, it is an election year. Now, with 2Q19 GDP growth reported at 5.5%, even lower than 1Q19’s 5.6%, were we in fact too optimistic? Latest data show a marked deceleration ...

​East of Euphrates: Is it settled now?
TURKEY · In Brief · 08 Aug 2019

It has long been one of my most tiring mottos that “Turkey can’t pull out of Syria”, because surrendering the neighbor to Assad and PKK-affiliated Kurdish entity YPG-PYD would earnestly create problems of survival in the long run. At the very least, the nearly 4 million strong Syrian refugee popu...

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