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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Turkey at a Crossroads
TURKEY · Forecast · 31 Jul 2016

Any seasoned observer of Turkey’s economy and politics would make a mockery of our title, but this time it seems for real. Following this month’s unsuccessful coup attempt, which was thwarted by an impressively unified response from a coalition of forces -- the government, the opposition, securit...

Car manufacturing: good news and bad news
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Jul 2016

Yesterday, the local media was flooded by news and instant analysis on Mercedes' freshly announced plans to build a €1bn worth of new production complex at Kecskemét (South-Eastern Hungary). The new factory is intended to include car body production and painting units, in addition to an assembly ...

What kinds of reforms?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 29 Jul 2016

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The orthodox macroeconomic model, which dominates mainstream thinking about China, implicitly assumes that the main determinant of economic growth is the mix of a country’s assets – not just capital assets but also other, less tangible assets such a...

Fiscal Talks Likely to Take a Back Seat
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 29 Jul 2016

Discussion of political reform is very likely to precede talks over electrical sector reform, and the so-called Fiscal Pact. Business leaders have stressed that good party and electoral laws are a priority, a view shared by almost all civic organizations. The government has been responsive, and h...

Labor market rapidly tightening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 29 Jul 2016

In Q216 the unemployment rate declined to 4.8% from 5.2% in Q116 (seasonally adjusted data). Looking at the more important age group (closely followed by the BOI) of 25-64 (excluding soldiers and students), unemployment declined to 4.0% in Q2 from 4.5% in Q1. This age group witnessed an increase ...

COSTA RICA: Deficit Solution Needed
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Jul 2016

Our short-term outlook for Costa Rica calls for moderate growth with financial stability, but continued fiscal vulnerability. Recent developments suggest that the fiscal situation will be better than expected, though, as government revenues rose faster than spending. But the deficit is still larg...

Economics: Confusion over Poverty Statistics
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jul 2016

The National Statistics Institute (Inegi) published on Friday, July 15, the results of its Module of Socio-economic Conditions (MCS) for 2015, the study in which the agency measures information that allows the National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policy (Coneval) to calculate...

Politics: Officials Boxed Into Corner on Reform
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jul 2016

Protests by teachers have led to government negotiations on several levels in the past two weeks. After engaging in talks with the dissident faction of the teachers’ union in an effort to end the crisis posed by the roadblocks hardline anti education-reform protestors are periodically setting up ...

Brexit Stokes Yuan Uncertainty
CHINA · Report · 26 Jul 2016

GDP grew 6.7% y/y in Q2, the same rate as in Q1. There’s downward pressure on future growth, though we also expect growth to stabilize. Industrial output was up 6.1% y/y. Though growth was 0.3 pps faster than in Q1, the recovery is weak. Fixed asset investment rose 8.2% y/y in real terms, dow...

​Unfazed By Politics, Ratings, the CBRT Intends Further Easing
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Jul 2016

The CBRT Governor Murat Cetinkaya presented the third (his second) Inflation Report of the year today. The yearend inflation forecasts for both 2016 and 2017 have been kept at 7.5% and 6% (mid-points), respectively, with some changes in composition, as we had surmised on Sunday. For 2016, in part...

Maduro likes how the military governs
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Jul 2016

By promoting General Vladimir Padrino López as virtual head of cabinet (some say co-president) and praising his governing abilities, Maduro is trying to take power and political responsibility off of his shoulders and onto those of the military, which has so far shown its full support. By acce...

Asset Prices and the Real Side in Temer’s Fiscal Adjustment
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Jul 2016

The climate is one of extreme optimism regarding the future of the Brazilian economy. After years of a seemingly endless succession of economic policy blunders, the new government has a competent economic team with a correct diagnosis. Although the recession is not yet over, important signs exist...

Week of July 25
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jul 2016 · 1 response

This is the last week of the legislative recess and, therefore, it will be relatively quiet. President Dilma Rousseff’s defense presents its final statements to the Impeachment Committee. Demonstrations in favor of the impeachment are organized for Sunday, July 31, but are likely to be postponed.

A New Central Bank and a New Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Jul 2016

In the inflation targeting regime, the nominal anchor is provided by inflation expectations, whose convergence to the target is assured by a combination of correct application of the monetary policy tool (the basic interest rate) and clear and transparent communication about the central bank’s pr...

​The President’s Speech
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 25 Jul 2016

President Rodrigo Duterte delivered his first State of the Nation Address (SONA) before a joint session of Congress this afternoon. The supposed 38-minute speech extended to over an hour as the President went off-script numerous times to explain his stance and policies. The style was very differe...

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